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🇺🇸 USA › MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
25.07.2026 22:30
Sports Illustrated Stadium
Referee: Rosendo Mendoza, USA
New York Red Bulls
Match Timeline
Charlotte
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
P. Biel · Assist: L. Abada
Charlotte
⚽
12'
A. Westwood · Assist: K. A. Calderon Vargas
Charlotte
🟨
47'
Liel Abada
Charlotte
🟨
56'
Jorge Ruvalcaba
New York Red Bulls
🔄
61'
H. Toffolo ↔ W. Cleary
Charlotte
🔄
70'
C. Cowell ↔ M. Sofo
New York Red Bulls
🔄
70'
D. Nealis ↔ J. Marshall-Rutty
New York Red Bulls
🔄
71'
E. Forsberg ↔ M. Jimenez
New York Red Bulls
🔄
71'
L. Abada ↔ T. Smalls
Charlotte
🔄
71'
L. de la Torre ↔ D. Diani
Charlotte
🟨
76'
Adri Mehmeti
New York Red Bulls
🔄
82'
I. Toklomati ↔ A. Goodwin
Charlotte
🔄
82'
P. Biel ↔ B. Bronico
Charlotte
🔄
84'
J. Ruvalcaba ↔ A. Rojas
New York Red Bulls
🔄
84'
M. Dos Santos ↔ O. Valencia
New York Red Bulls
🟨
85'
Omar Valencia
New York Red Bulls
🟨
90+3'
Adri Mehmeti
New York Red Bulls
🟨
90+1'
Justin Che
New York Red Bulls
🟥
90+3'
Adri Mehmeti
New York Red Bulls

New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 64.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
64.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
New York Red Bulls Win 64.4%
Draw 14.4%
Charlotte Win 21.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York Red Bulls1.62
Charlotte1.83
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls
WWDLW
39 GF / 48 GA
Charlotte Charlotte
WLDWL
32 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.77
Average Goals Scored
1.6
2.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
16
BTTS Yes
13
17
Over 2.5
13
5.06
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 22 matches
Charlotte Charlotte 20 matches
New York Red Bulls Statistic Charlotte
8 Wins 9
4 Draws 4
10 Losses 7
39 Goals For 32
48 Goals Against 28
1.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
2.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
16 BTTS Yes 13
21 Over 1.5 14
17 Over 2.5 13
13 Over 3.5 8
2 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 5
5.06 Shots On Goal 5
13.25 Total Shots 11.75
6.06 Corners 4.69
52.8% Ball Possession 47.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Charlotte's more proactive style and New York Red Bulls's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Charlotte. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Charlotte having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

New York Red Bulls Analysis

New York Red Bulls come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 22 points after 15 matches. They have recorded 6 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a 25:32 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Jorge Ruvalcaba (7 goals), Julian Hall (4 goals), Ronald Donkor (1 goals), with creative support from Julian Hall (3 assists), Ronald Donkor (3 assists), Cade Cowell (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

Charlotte Analysis

From their first 15 matches, Charlotte have collected 21 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 24:23 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Pep Biel (3 goals), Idan Toklomati (3 goals), Morrison Agyemang (2 goals), with creative support from Kerwin Calderón Vargas (3 assists), Pep Biel (2 assists), Ashley Westwood (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, New York Red Bulls won 5 times, Charlotte won 4 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:21 from New York Red Bulls's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.58 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: New York Red Bulls 4-2-3-1 / Charlotte 4-2-3-1
Missing players: New York Red Bulls 3, Charlotte 1
H2H summary: New York Red Bulls wins 5, draws 3, Charlotte wins 4

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 18 6 3 55:21 34 60
W W D L D
2 28 14 6 8 51:40 11 48
W W W L L
3 27 14 4 9 45:36 9 46
L W W W L
4 27 12 10 5 64:50 14 46
L D D D D
5 27 12 7 8 47:38 9 43
L W D W D
6 27 11 6 10 54:44 10 39
W W W W W
7 27 10 4 13 48:64 -16 34
L L W W W
8 27 9 6 12 34:51 -17 33
L W W L D
9 28 8 9 11 42:38 4 33
L D L W L
10 26 8 9 9 55:64 -9 33
L D D L L
11 28 7 11 10 41:52 -11 32
W L L L W
12 26 6 12 8 34:42 -8 30
D L D W D
13 27 8 5 14 39:43 -4 29
W W L L W
14 27 7 6 14 32:45 -13 27
D W D L D
15 28 6 6 16 35:56 -21 24
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)