🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
Yankee Stadium
Referee: S. Demianchuk
New York City FC
Match Timeline
Philadelphia Union
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
B. Traore
New York City FC
🟨
16'
N. Harriel
Philadelphia Union
🟨
43'
Luighi
New York City FC
🟨
44'
J. Lukic
Philadelphia Union
45+2'
Luighi
New York City FC
48'
D. Jean Jacques · Assist: C. Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
🟨
51'
M. Iloski
Philadelphia Union
🔄
60'
J. Shore ↔ M. Carrizo
New York City FC
🔄
60'
K. Parks ↔ K. O'Toole
New York City FC
🔄
62'
J. Lukic ↔ J. Bueno
Philadelphia Union
🔄
67'
Luighi ↔ Talles Magno
New York City FC
🔄
67'
B. Traore ↔ M. Jones
New York City FC
69'
B. Damiani · Assist: C. Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
🔄
70'
I. Vassilev ↔ Q. Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
75'
B. Damiani · Assist: Q. Sullivan
Philadelphia Union
🔄
78'
M. Murray ↔ Raul Gustavo
New York City FC
🟨
79'
T. Gray
New York City FC
🔄
80'
C. Sullivan ↔ A. Bedoya
Philadelphia Union
🟨
85'
K. Wagner
Philadelphia Union
🟨
90'
M. Jones
New York City FC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.1%
Odds 2.32
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.68
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.1%
2.32
BTTS Yes
88%
1.53
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.68
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91%
1.29
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.00
Probability Distribution
New York City FC Win 75.1%
Draw 10.2%
Philadelphia Union Win 14.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York City FC1.59
Philadelphia Union1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York City FC New York City FC
WWDLW
37 GF / 31 GA
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
WLDWL
47 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.61
Average Goals Scored
1.74
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
15
BTTS Yes
16
12
Over 2.5
16
4.89
Shots on Goal
4.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York City FC New York City FC 23 matches
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union 27 matches
New York City FC Statistic Philadelphia Union
8 Wins 8
7 Draws 6
8 Losses 13
37 Goals For 47
31 Goals Against 42
1.61 Avg Goals Scored 1.74
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
15 BTTS Yes 16
21 Over 1.5 21
12 Over 2.5 16
6 Over 3.5 9
4 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 6
4.89 Shots On Goal 4.86
11.44 Total Shots 15.82
3.22 Corners 6.23
54.9% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by New York City FC's more proactive style and Philadelphia Union's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with New York City FC expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Philadelphia Union in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Philadelphia Union having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Philadelphia Union. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. New York City FC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 26 points compared to Philadelphia Union in 13 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

New York City FC Analysis

Placed 5 with 26 points from 18 outings, New York City FC continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 31:24 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Nicolás Fernández (8 goals), Agustin Ojeda (3 goals), Hannes Wolf (3 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Fernández (3 assists), Agustin Ojeda (3 assists), Hannes Wolf (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Philadelphia Union Analysis

So far, Philadelphia Union have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 16 points from 18 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 25:33 reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by Milan Iloski (8 goals), Nathan Harriel (1 goals), Bruno Damiani (1 goals), with creative support from Frankie Westfield (3 assists), Nathan Harriel (1 assists), Bruno Damiani (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, New York City FC won 5 times, Philadelphia Union won 9 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:26 from New York City FC's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.8%)
Predicted formations: New York City FC 4-1-4-1 / Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
H2H summary: New York City FC wins 5, draws 1, Philadelphia Union wins 9
Stats
New York City FC New York City FC
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
7
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
5
8 Corner Kicks 4
15 Fouls 21
1 Offsides 3
51% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Goal 5
6 Shots off Goal 7
6 Blocked Shots 5
10 Shots insidebox 8
6 Shots outsidebox 9
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
345 Total passes 329
247 Passes accurate 247
2.25 expected_goals 2.39
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

New York City FC
Formation
Philadelphia Union
Matthew Freese
Matthew Freese
Tayvon Gray
Tayvon Gray
Max Murray
Max Murray
James Sands
James Sands
Nico Cavallo
Nico Cavallo
Jonathan Shore
Jonathan Shore
Keaton Parks
Keaton Parks
Andrés Perea
Andrés Perea
Agustin Ojeda
Agustin Ojeda
Luighi Hanri
Luighi Hanri
Bénie Traoré
Bénie Traoré
Andre Blake
Andre Blake
Frankie Westfield
Frankie Westfield
Neil Pierre
Neil Pierre
Nathan Harriel
Nathan Harriel
Kai Wagner
Kai Wagner
Cavan Sullivan
🎯
Cavan Sullivan
Danley Jean Jacques
Danley Jean Jacques
Jovan Lukić
Jovan Lukić
Indiana Vassilev
Indiana Vassilev
Bruno Damiani
⚽ 2
Bruno Damiani
Milan Iloski
Milan Iloski
New York City FC 4-3-3
Starting XI
49
Matthew Freese
G
24
Tayvon Gray
🟨 79'
D
23
Max Murray
↓ 78'
D
6
James Sands
D
2
Nico Cavallo
D
32
Jonathan Shore
↓ 60'
M
55
Keaton Parks
↓ 60'
M
8
Andrés Perea
M
26
Agustin Ojeda
F
20
Luighi Hanri
⚽ 45+2' ↓ 67' 🟨 43'
F
9
Bénie Traoré
⚽ 4' ↓ 67'
F
Substitutes
22
Kevin O'Toole
↑ 60'
D
29
Máximo Carrizo
↑ 60'
M
11
Talles Magno
↑ 67'
F
88
Malachi Jones
↑ 67' 🟨 90'
F
34
Raul Gustavo
↑ 78'
D
30
Tomás Romero
G
35
Mitja Ilenič
D
75
El Hadij Samb
M
15
Kevin Pierre
M
Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
Starting XI
18
Andre Blake
G
39
Frankie Westfield
D
44
Neil Pierre
D
26
Nathan Harriel
🟨 16'
D
27
Kai Wagner
🟨 85'
D
6
Cavan Sullivan
🎯 48' 🎯 69' ↓ 80'
M
21
Danley Jean Jacques
⚽ 48'
M
4
Jovan Lukić
↓ 62' 🟨 44'
M
19
Indiana Vassilev
↓ 70'
M
9
Bruno Damiani
⚽ 69' ⚽ 75'
F
10
Milan Iloski
🟨 51'
F
Substitutes
8
Jesus Bueno
↑ 62'
M
33
Quinn Sullivan
🎯 75' ↑ 70'
M
11
Alejandro Bedoya
↑ 80'
M
76
Andrew Rick
G
5
Japhet Sery Larsen
D
28
Agustin Anello
F
16
Ben Bender
M
14
Jeremy Rafanello
M
23
Ezekiel Alladoh
F
Last matches: New York City FC
31.07.26
Maj
New York City FC
Toronto FC
1
1
D
25.07.26
Maj
New York City FC
Chicago Fire
3
1
W
22.07.26
Maj
New York City FC
Columbus Crew
2
1
W
24.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Nashville SC
1
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
0
W
10.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Columbus Crew
3
0
W
03.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
DC United
0
2
L
25.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
CF Montreal
0
1
L
22.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
2
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
2
L
04.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
St. Louis City
1
1
D
22.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Inter Miami
2
3
L
14.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Colorado Rapids
3
1
W
07.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Orlando City SC
5
0
W
01.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
23.02.26
Maj
New York City FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Sporting Kansas City
1
2
L
Last matches: Philadelphia Union
01.08.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United FC
3
2
W
25.07.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Seattle Sounders
1
0
W
22.07.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York Red Bulls
3
1
W
24.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
4
6
L
16.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Orlando City SC
3
4
L
09.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New England Revolution
1
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Nashville SC
0
0
D
25.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Toronto FC
3
3
D
18.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
0
D
11.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
CF Montreal
2
1
W
04.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Charlotte
1
2
L
21.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
19.03.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Club America
1
1
D
14.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United FC
1
3
L
10.03.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Club America
0
1
L
08.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
San Jose Earthquakes
0
1
L
01.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
1
2
L
27.02.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Defence Force
7
0
W
H2H: New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union
01.03.26
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
1
2
W
24.11.25
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
0
1
W
04.10.25
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
1
0
L
12.04.25
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
1
0
W
18.09.24
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
1
5
L
15.05.24
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
1
2
W
27.01.24
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
1
3
L
15.07.23
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
2
1
L
27.05.23
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
1
3
L
31.10.22
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
3
1
L
26.06.22
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
2
1
L
19.03.22
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
0
2
L
05.12.21
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
1
2
W
07.11.21
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
1
1
D
18.08.21
H2H
Philadelphia Union
New York City FC
1
0
L
Last matches: New York City FC
31.07.26
Maj
New York City FC
Toronto FC
1
1
D
25.07.26
Maj
New York City FC
Chicago Fire
3
1
W
10.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Columbus Crew
3
0
W
03.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
DC United
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
2
L
04.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
St. Louis City
1
1
D
22.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Inter Miami
2
3
L
14.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Colorado Rapids
3
1
W
07.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Orlando City SC
5
0
W
01.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Austin
2
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
New York City FC
Tampa Bay Rowdies
2
2
D
H2H at home: New York City FC
12.04.25
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
1
0
W
18.09.24
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
1
5
L
27.01.24
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
1
3
L
27.05.23
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
1
3
L
19.03.22
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
0
2
L
07.11.21
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
1
1
D
Last matches: Philadelphia Union
24.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami
4
6
L
13.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Orlando City SC
3
4
L
09.05.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
New England Revolution
1
2
L
25.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew
0
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Toronto FC
3
3
D
11.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
CF Montreal
2
1
W
04.04.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Charlotte
1
2
L
19.03.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Club America
1
1
D
14.03.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United FC
1
3
L
22.02.26
Maj
Philadelphia Union
DC United
0
1
L
18.02.26
CON
Philadelphia Union
Defence Force
5
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
Philadelphia Union
FC Nordsjaelland
1
2
L
20.01.26
Fri
Philadelphia Union
Sigma Olomouc
1
1
D
H2H away: Philadelphia Union
12.04.25
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
1
0
L
18.09.24
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
1
5
W
27.01.24
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
1
3
W
27.05.23
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
1
3
W
19.03.22
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
0
2
W
07.11.21
H2H
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
1
1
D
Showing odds from: Bet365
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.79
Draw 3.84
Home 2.32
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.43
Draw 2.42
Home 2.86
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.21
Over 2.25 1.49
Over 2.5 1.68
Over 2.75 1.85
Over 3.0 2.11
Over 3.25 2.39
Over 3.5 2.66
Over 4.5 4.82
Under 1.5 4.53
Under 2.25 2.69
Under 2.5 2.25
Under 2.75 2.01
Under 3.0 1.76
Under 3.25 1.60
Under 3.5 1.49
Under 4.5 1.19
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 3.50
Home 2.30
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 2.38
Home 2.88
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.60
Home 2.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 1.5 1.18
Over 2.5 1.65
Over 3.5 2.50
Over 4.5 4.50
Over 5.5 10.00
Over 6.5 19.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 15.00
Under 1.5 4.50
Under 2.5 2.20
Under 3.5 1.50
Under 4.5 1.18
Under 5.5 1.06
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.90
Draw 3.55
Home 2.25
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.30
Draw 2.25
Home 2.65
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.05
Draw 2.70
Home 2.55
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 2.25 1.48
Over 2.5 1.66
Over 2.75 1.84
Over 3.0 2.12
Over 3.25 2.40
Over 3.5 2.70
Over 3.75 3.20
Over 4.5 5.00
Over 5.5 9.50
Under 0.5 12.00
Under 1.5 4.35
Under 2.25 2.55
Under 2.5 2.15
Under 2.75 1.92
Under 3.0 1.68
Under 3.25 1.54
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 3.75 1.32
Under 4.5 1.15
Under 5.5 1.03

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 4 2 39:15 24 43
W D L W W
2 19 11 5 3 46:36 10 38
L D W W W
3 18 10 2 6 34:24 10 32
W W L L W
4 19 9 3 7 29:25 4 30
L L D W D
5 19 8 4 7 32:28 4 28
W L W D W
6 19 7 6 6 46:45 1 27
D W L W W
7 19 7 5 7 33:27 6 26
L D W W L
8 19 7 4 8 30:41 -11 25
L W L L W
9 19 5 9 5 27:30 -3 24
D D W D D
10 19 6 3 10 31:48 -17 21
D L W W L
11 19 5 5 9 27:31 -4 20
L D W L W
12 19 4 8 7 26:33 -7 20
W D L D D
13 19 5 4 10 28:35 -7 19
W W W W L
14 19 4 5 10 25:36 -11 17
D D L L D
15 19 4 3 12 21:34 -13 15
W L L D L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)