🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
Yankee Stadium
Referee: S. Boiko
New York City FC
Match Timeline
FC Cincinnati
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
20'
N. Mercau
New York City FC
🔄
23'
T. Hadebe ↔ A. Powell
FC Cincinnati
32'
K. Denkey · Assist: E. Echenique
FC Cincinnati
35'
N. Mercau · Assist: M. Moralez
New York City FC
🔄
46'
↔ A. Chirila
FC Cincinnati
🟨
50'
Gilberto Flores
FC Cincinnati
53'
A. Ojeda · Assist: A. O'Neill
New York City FC
VAR
59'
Evander
FC Cincinnati
🔄
60'
G. Flores ↔ T. Anunga
FC Cincinnati
🔄
60'
E. Echenique ↔ G. Valenzuela
FC Cincinnati
65'
K. Denkey · Assist: G. Valenzuela
FC Cincinnati
🟨
71'
Kyle Smith
FC Cincinnati
🔄
72'
H. Wolf ↔ K. Parks
New York City FC
🔄
72'
M. Moralez ↔ Talles Magno
New York City FC
79'
Talles Magno · Assist: A. Ojeda
New York City FC
🔄
83'
T. Barlow ↔ A. Jabbari
FC Cincinnati
🔄
84'
A. Ojeda ↔ J. Shore
New York City FC
🔄
84'
N. Mercau ↔ A. Farnos
New York City FC
🟨
90+6'
Tah Anunga
FC Cincinnati
🔄
90'
T. Gray ↔ S. Tanasijevic
New York City FC
90'
A. Chirila · Assist: P. Bucha
FC Cincinnati
90'
Evander
FC Cincinnati

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 91.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
91.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.6%
-
Probability Distribution
New York City FC Win 91.6%
Draw 8.5%
FC Cincinnati Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
New York City FC1.7
FC Cincinnati1.87
Recent Form (Last 5)
New York City FC New York City FC
WWDLW
21 GF / 18 GA
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
WLDWL
35 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.62
Average Goals Scored
2.19
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.81
9
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
9
5.5
Shots on Goal
6.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New York City FC New York City FC 13 matches
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati 16 matches
New York City FC Statistic FC Cincinnati
4 Wins 6
4 Draws 4
5 Losses 6
21 Goals For 35
18 Goals Against 29
1.62 Avg Goals Scored 2.19
1.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.81
9 BTTS Yes 9
13 Over 1.5 13
7 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 8
2 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 2
5.5 Shots On Goal 6.17
13.38 Total Shots 14.67
4.38 Corners 5.5
57% Ball Possession 51.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between New York City FC's more proactive style and FC Cincinnati's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with New York City FC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and FC Cincinnati in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Cincinnati having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors FC Cincinnati. New York City FC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

New York City FC Analysis

New York City FC sit 7 with 11 points after 8 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 14:9 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on N. Mercau (6 goals), A. Ojeda (2 goals), H. Wolf (2 goals), with creative support from M. Moralez (5 assists), A. Ojeda (1 assists), H. Wolf (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with A. Martinez, A. Perea, D. Baiera unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

FC Cincinnati Analysis

FC Cincinnati are currently 10 in the standings with 8 points from 8 matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 10:16 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Denkey (2 goals), T. Barlow (2 goals), Ayoub Jabbari (1 goals), with creative support from E. Echenique (2 assists), K. Denkey (1 assists), Ayoub Jabbari (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with K. Fletcher, O. Nwobodo, M. Miazga unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, New York City FC won 5 times, FC Cincinnati won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:26 from New York City FC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (100%)
Predicted formations: New York City FC 4-2-3-1 / FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
Missing players: New York City FC 3, FC Cincinnati 5
H2H summary: New York City FC wins 5, draws 4, FC Cincinnati wins 6
Stats
New York City FC New York City FC
FC Cincinnati FC Cincinnati
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
2 Corner Kicks 4
7 Fouls 9
3 Offsides 2
55% Ball Possession 45%
17 Total Shots 12
9 Shots on Goal 6
5 Shots off Goal 3
3 Blocked Shots 3
14 Shots insidebox 8
3 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 5
555 Total passes 447
462 Passes accurate 359
1.56 expected_goals 1.49
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

New York City FC
Formation
FC Cincinnati
M. Freese
M. Freese
T. Gray
T. Gray
Thiago Martins
Thiago Martins
Raul Gustavo
Raul Gustavo
K. O'Toole
K. O'Toole
K. Trewin
K. Trewin
A. O'Neill
🎯
A. O'Neill
A. Ojeda
🎯
A. Ojeda
M. Moralez
🎯
M. Moralez
H. Wolf
H. Wolf
N. Mercau
⚽ 2
N. Mercau
R. Celentano
R. Celentano
K. Smith
K. Smith
G. Flores
G. Flores
T. Hadebe
T. Hadebe
E. Echenique
🎯
E. Echenique
P. Bucha
🎯
P. Bucha
S. Gidi
S. Gidi
K. Mboma
K. Mboma
Evander
Evander
K. Denkey
⚽ 2
K. Denkey
T. Barlow
T. Barlow
New York City FC 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
49
M. Freese
G
24
T. Gray
↓ 90'
D
13
Thiago Martins
D
34
Raul Gustavo
D
22
K. O'Toole
D
5
K. Trewin
M
21
A. O'Neill
🎯 53'
M
26
A. Ojeda
⚽ 53' 🎯 79' ↓ 84'
M
10
M. Moralez
🎯 35' ↓ 72'
M
17
H. Wolf
↓ 72'
M
7
N. Mercau
⚽ 20' ⚽ 35' ↓ 84'
F
Substitutes
30
T. Romero
G
55
K. Parks
↑ 72'
M
29
M. Carrizo
M
19
S. Tanasijevic
↑ 90'
D
11
Talles Magno
⚽ 79' ↑ 72'
F
32
J. Shore
↑ 84'
M
2
N. Cavallo
D
99
S. Reid
F
87
A. Farnos
↑ 84'
F
FC Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
18
R. Celentano
G
24
K. Smith
🟨 71'
D
3
G. Flores
↓ 60' 🟨 50'
D
15
T. Hadebe
↓ 23'
D
66
E. Echenique
🎯 32' ↓ 60'
M
20
P. Bucha
🎯 90'
M
11
S. Gidi
M
17
K. Mboma
M
10
Evander
⚽ 90'
F
9
K. Denkey
⚽ 32' ⚽ 65'
F
16
T. Barlow
↓ 83'
F
Substitutes
13
E. Louro
G
27
T. Anunga
↑ 60' 🟨 90+6'
M
99
A. Jabbari
↑ 83'
F
37
S. Jimenez
M
2
A. Powell
↑ 23'
D
22
G. Valenzuela
🎯 65' ↑ 60'
M
88
A. Chirila
⚽ 90' ↑ 46'
D
Last matches: New York City FC
24.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Nashville SC
1
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
0
W
10.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Columbus Crew
3
0
W
03.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
DC United
0
2
L
25.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
CF Montreal
0
1
L
18.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
2
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
2
L
04.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
St. Louis City
1
1
D
22.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Inter Miami
2
3
L
14.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Colorado Rapids
3
1
W
07.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Orlando City SC
5
0
W
01.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
23.02.26
Maj
New York City FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Sporting Kansas City
1
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Los Angeles FC
1
1
D
01.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Austin
2
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
New York City FC
Tampa Bay Rowdies
2
2
D
Last matches: FC Cincinnati
23.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
6
2
W
17.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Diego
3
3
D
13.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Inter Miami
3
5
L
09.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Charlotte
2
2
D
03.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
2
W
25.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
0
W
18.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
3
D
11.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
4
L
22.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
CF Montreal
4
3
W
20.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
1
5
L
15.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution
1
6
L
13.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
3
0
W
08.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
0
1
L
28.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Minnesota United FC
0
1
L
26.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
9
0
W
21.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Atlanta United FC
2
0
W
19.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
4
0
W
11.02.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
2
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Detroit City
1
0
W
H2H: New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati
22.04.26
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
4
4
D
23.08.25
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
0
1
W
04.05.25
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
1
0
W
09.11.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
0
0
D
02.11.24
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
3
1
W
28.10.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
1
0
L
02.10.24
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
3
2
W
06.08.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
2
L
23.03.24
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
1
0
L
26.08.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
3
0
L
31.05.23
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
1
3
L
10.05.23
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
1
0
L
08.09.22
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
29.06.22
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
4
4
D
18.09.21
H2H
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
1
2
W
Last matches: New York City FC
10.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Columbus Crew
3
0
W
03.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
DC United
0
2
L
18.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
2
L
04.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
St. Louis City
1
1
D
22.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Inter Miami
2
3
L
14.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Colorado Rapids
3
1
W
07.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Orlando City SC
5
0
W
01.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Austin
2
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
New York City FC
Tampa Bay Rowdies
2
2
D
H2H at home: New York City FC
22.04.26
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
4
4
D
04.05.25
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
1
0
W
02.11.24
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
3
1
W
02.10.24
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
3
2
W
31.05.23
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
1
3
L
08.09.22
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
Last matches: FC Cincinnati
17.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
San Diego
3
3
D
09.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Charlotte
2
2
D
03.05.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Chicago Fire
3
2
W
11.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Toronto FC
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New York Red Bulls
2
4
L
20.03.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Tigres UANL
1
5
L
15.03.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution
1
6
L
28.02.26
Maj
FC Cincinnati
Minnesota United FC
0
1
L
19.02.26
CON
FC Cincinnati
Universidad O&M
4
0
W
11.02.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Orlando City SC
2
3
L
28.01.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
Houston Dynamo
1
1
D
23.01.26
Fri
FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution
1
1
D
H2H away: FC Cincinnati
22.04.26
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
4
4
D
04.05.25
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
1
0
L
02.11.24
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
3
1
L
02.10.24
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
3
2
L
31.05.23
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
1
3
W
08.09.22
H2H
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 3 1 31:11 20 33
W W W D D
2 15 9 4 2 39:28 11 31
W W W W L
3 14 8 2 4 27:16 11 26
W W W L L
4 14 8 1 5 22:18 4 25
L W L W W
5 15 6 4 5 25:32 -7 22
W D W W L
6 15 6 3 6 24:23 1 21
W W L D L
7 15 5 5 5 36:37 -1 20
W D L D W
8 15 5 4 6 25:21 4 19
L D W W L
9 15 4 6 5 21:25 -4 18
D D L D W
10 15 4 4 7 21:23 -2 16
W D L L L
11 14 4 2 8 22:31 -9 14
D L D W L
12 15 4 2 9 23:44 -21 14
L D W L W
13 14 3 5 6 22:29 -7 14
L L L D L
14 14 3 2 9 14:23 -9 11
L D L W W
15 15 1 4 10 18:30 -12 7
L D L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

New York City FC 3 missing
-
A. Martinez
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. Perea
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
D. Baiera
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
FC Cincinnati 5 missing
-
K. Fletcher
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Robinson
Questionable Leg Injury
OUT
-
O. Nwobodo
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
M. Miazga
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
B. J. Ramirez Leon
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT