🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
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Gillette Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 63.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
63.4%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
67.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
New England Revolution Win 43%
Draw 20.4%
New York City FC Win 36.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
New England Revolution1.7
New York City FC1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
New England Revolution New England Revolution
WWDLW
45 GF / 32 GA
New York City FC New York City FC
WLDWL
39 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.88
Average Goals Scored
1.63
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
15
BTTS Yes
16
16
Over 2.5
13
3.74
Shots on Goal
4.84

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

New England Revolution New England Revolution 24 matches
New York City FC New York City FC 24 matches
New England Revolution Statistic New York City FC
11 Wins 8
4 Draws 7
9 Losses 9
45 Goals For 39
32 Goals Against 34
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
15 BTTS Yes 16
19 Over 1.5 22
16 Over 2.5 13
8 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 4
3.74 Shots On Goal 4.84
10.16 Total Shots 11.68
3.95 Corners 3.47
47.3% Ball Possession 54.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward New York City FC. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with New England Revolution expected to line up in 4-3-3 and New York City FC in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward New York City FC having the stronger overall control.

New England Revolution Analysis

New England Revolution arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 30 points after 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, while the 29:25 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Carles Gil (6 goals), Dor Turgeman (2 goals), Luca Langoni (2 goals), with creative support from Dor Turgeman (3 assists), Carles Gil (2 assists), Matt Polster (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 8 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

New York City FC Analysis

New York City FC are currently 7 in the standings with 26 points from 18 matches. The record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 31:24 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Nicolás Fernández (8 goals), Agustin Ojeda (3 goals), Hannes Wolf (3 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Fernández (3 assists), Agustin Ojeda (3 assists), Hannes Wolf (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, New England Revolution won 5 times, New York City FC won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:20 from New England Revolution's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.6%)
Predicted formations: New England Revolution 4-3-3 / New York City FC 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: New England Revolution wins 5, draws 4, New York City FC wins 6
Last matches: New England Revolution
15.08.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Toronto FC
1
2
L
08.08.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Houston Dynamo
0
2
L
01.08.26
Maj
New England Revolution
CF Montreal
2
2
D
25.07.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Atlanta United FC
4
1
W
22.07.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Toronto FC
0
0
D
23.05.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Charlotte
0
1
L
16.05.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Minnesota United FC
2
1
W
13.05.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Nashville SC
0
3
L
09.05.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
02.05.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Charlotte
1
0
W
25.04.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Inter Miami
1
1
D
22.04.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Atlanta United FC
2
1
W
18.04.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Columbus Crew
2
1
W
11.04.26
Maj
New England Revolution
DC United
1
0
W
04.04.26
Maj
New England Revolution
CF Montreal
3
0
W
22.03.26
Maj
New England Revolution
St. Louis City
1
3
L
15.03.26
Maj
New England Revolution
FC Cincinnati
6
1
W
28.02.26
Maj
New England Revolution
New York Red Bulls
0
1
L
22.02.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Nashville SC
1
4
L
14.02.26
Fri
New England Revolution
Hartford Athletic
6
1
W
Last matches: New York City FC
16.08.26
Maj
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
2
3
L
31.07.26
Maj
New York City FC
Toronto FC
1
1
D
25.07.26
Maj
New York City FC
Chicago Fire
3
1
W
22.07.26
Maj
New York City FC
Columbus Crew
2
1
W
24.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Nashville SC
1
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
0
W
10.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Columbus Crew
3
0
W
03.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
DC United
0
2
L
25.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
CF Montreal
0
1
L
22.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
2
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
2
L
04.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
St. Louis City
1
1
D
22.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Inter Miami
2
3
L
14.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Colorado Rapids
3
1
W
07.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Orlando City SC
5
0
W
01.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
23.02.26
Maj
New York City FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
H2H: New England Revolution vs New York City FC
19.04.25
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
2
0
W
15.03.25
H2H
New York City FC
New England Revolution
2
1
L
09.08.24
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
1
1
D
25.05.24
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
0
1
L
13.04.24
H2H
New York City FC
New England Revolution
2
0
L
03.06.23
H2H
New York City FC
New England Revolution
0
0
D
01.04.23
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
1
1
D
05.09.22
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
3
0
W
09.07.22
H2H
New York City FC
New England Revolution
4
2
L
25.05.22
H2H
New York City FC
New England Revolution
1
0
L
01.12.21
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
2
2
D
11.09.21
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
2
1
W
28.08.21
H2H
New York City FC
New England Revolution
2
0
L
19.06.21
H2H
New York City FC
New England Revolution
2
3
W
11.10.20
H2H
New York City FC
New England Revolution
1
2
W
Last matches: New England Revolution
08.08.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Houston Dynamo
0
2
L
25.07.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Atlanta United FC
4
1
W
22.07.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Toronto FC
0
0
D
16.05.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Minnesota United FC
2
1
W
13.05.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Nashville SC
0
3
L
09.05.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
02.05.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Charlotte
1
0
W
18.04.26
Maj
New England Revolution
Columbus Crew
2
1
W
11.04.26
Maj
New England Revolution
DC United
1
0
W
04.04.26
Maj
New England Revolution
CF Montreal
3
0
W
15.03.26
Maj
New England Revolution
FC Cincinnati
6
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
New England Revolution
Hartford Athletic
6
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
New England Revolution
CF Montreal
1
2
L
31.01.26
Fri
New England Revolution
Houston Dynamo
2
3
L
23.01.26
Fri
New England Revolution
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
17.01.26
Fri
New England Revolution
Sarasota Paradise
6
0
W
H2H at home: New England Revolution
19.04.25
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
2
0
W
09.08.24
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
1
1
D
25.05.24
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
0
1
L
01.04.23
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
1
1
D
05.09.22
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
3
0
W
01.12.21
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
2
2
D
11.09.21
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
2
1
W
Last matches: New York City FC
22.07.26
Maj
New York City FC
Columbus Crew
2
1
W
24.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Nashville SC
1
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
0
W
25.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
CF Montreal
0
1
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
2
L
01.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
23.02.26
Maj
New York City FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Sporting Kansas City
1
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Los Angeles FC
1
1
D
H2H away: New York City FC
19.04.25
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
2
0
L
09.08.24
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
1
1
D
25.05.24
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
0
1
W
01.04.23
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
1
1
D
05.09.22
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
3
0
L
01.12.21
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
2
2
D
11.09.21
H2H
New England Revolution
New York City FC
2
1
L

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 4 2 39:15 24 43
W D L W W
2 19 11 5 3 46:36 10 38
L D W W W
3 18 10 2 6 34:24 10 32
W W L L W
4 19 9 3 7 29:25 4 30
L L D W D
5 19 8 4 7 32:28 4 28
W L W D W
6 19 7 6 6 46:45 1 27
D W L W W
7 19 7 5 7 33:27 6 26
L D W W L
8 19 7 4 8 30:41 -11 25
L W L L W
9 19 5 9 5 27:30 -3 24
D D W D D
10 19 6 3 10 31:48 -17 21
D L W W L
11 19 5 5 9 27:31 -4 20
L D W L W
12 19 4 8 7 26:33 -7 20
W D L D D
13 19 5 4 10 28:35 -7 19
W W W W L
14 19 4 5 10 25:36 -11 17
D D L L D
15 19 4 3 12 21:34 -13 15
W L L D L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)