🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
Geodis Park
Referee: A. Da Silva
Nashville SC
Match Timeline
New York City FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
J. Palacios · Assist: C. Espinoza
Nashville SC
23'
N. Mercau
New York City FC
🟨
25'
K. Trewin
New York City FC
VAR
35'
New York City FC
New York City FC
49'
M. Woledzi · Assist: B. Acosta
Nashville SC
🟨
65'
A. Qasem
Nashville SC
🔄
66'
M. Jones ↔ H. Wolf
New York City FC
🔄
66'
A. Farnos ↔ J. Shore
New York City FC
🔄
71'
A. Qasem ↔ S. Surridge
Nashville SC
🔄
78'
A. Perea ↔ M. Carrizo
New York City FC
🔄
79'
W. Madrigal ↔ A. Muyl
Nashville SC
🔄
79'
B. Acosta ↔ C. Brunet
Nashville SC
🔄
85'
N. Cavallo ↔ S. Reid
New York City FC
🔄
85'
K. Trewin ↔ K. Pierre
New York City FC
🟨
86'
C. Espinoza
Nashville SC
🔄
89'
C. Espinoza ↔ J. Bauer
Nashville SC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nashville SC Win 55.8%
Draw 12.5%
New York City FC Win 31.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nashville SC1.63
New York City FC1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WWDLW
45 GF / 18 GA
New York City FC New York City FC
WLDWL
30 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.8
Average Goals Scored
1.58
0.72
Average Goals Conceded
1.37
10
BTTS Yes
11
12
Over 2.5
9
4.52
Shots on Goal
5.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nashville SC Nashville SC 25 matches
New York City FC New York City FC 19 matches
Nashville SC Statistic New York City FC
14 Wins 6
7 Draws 6
4 Losses 7
45 Goals For 30
18 Goals Against 26
1.8 Avg Goals Scored 1.58
0.72 Avg Goals Conceded 1.37
10 BTTS Yes 11
15 Over 1.5 17
12 Over 2.5 9
9 Over 3.5 5
12 Clean Sheets 4
7 Failed To Score 4
4.52 Shots On Goal 5.07
11.43 Total Shots 11.79
4.62 Corners 3.64
52.3% Ball Possession 57.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nashville SC expected to line up in 4-3-3 and New York City FC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward New York City FC having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors New York City FC. Nashville SC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 30 points compared to New York City FC in 5 on 19, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Nashville SC Analysis

Nashville SC approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 30 points after 13 outings. The return of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 29:10, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through S. Surridge (9 goals), H. Mukhtar (6 goals), W. Madrigal (5 goals), with creative support from C. Espinoza (5 assists), H. Mukhtar (3 assists), P. Yazbek (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

New York City FC Analysis

Placed 5 with 19 points from 14 outings, New York City FC continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 24:19 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through N. Mercau (9 goals), H. Wolf (5 goals), A. Ojeda (3 goals), with creative support from M. Moralez (6 assists), N. Mercau (3 assists), A. Ojeda (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Nashville SC won 4 times, New York City FC won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:11 from Nashville SC's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.5%)
Predicted formations: Nashville SC 4-3-3 / New York City FC 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Nashville SC 4, New York City FC 7
H2H summary: Nashville SC wins 4, draws 2, New York City FC wins 3
Stats
Nashville SC Nashville SC
New York City FC New York City FC
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
1
6 Corner Kicks 3
11 Fouls 12
2 Offsides 0
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 7
6 Shots on Goal 4
3 Shots off Goal 2
3 Blocked Shots 1
7 Shots insidebox 5
5 Shots outsidebox 2
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
448 Total passes 490
395 Passes accurate 426
0.75 expected_goals 1.36
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Nashville SC
Formation
New York City FC
B. Schwake
B. Schwake
R. Baker-Whiting
R. Baker-Whiting
J. Palacios
J. Palacios
M. Woledzi
M. Woledzi
D. Lovitz
D. Lovitz
B. Acosta
🎯
B. Acosta
M. Corcoran
M. Corcoran
C. Espinoza
🎯
C. Espinoza
W. Madrigal
W. Madrigal
A. Qasem
A. Qasem
H. Mukhtar
H. Mukhtar
M. Freese
M. Freese
T. Gray
T. Gray
Thiago Martins
Thiago Martins
Raul Gustavo
Raul Gustavo
N. Cavallo
N. Cavallo
K. Trewin
K. Trewin
A. Perea
A. Perea
A. Ojeda
A. Ojeda
A. Farnos
A. Farnos
M. Jones
M. Jones
N. Mercau
N. Mercau
Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
99
B. Schwake
G
27
R. Baker-Whiting
D
4
J. Palacios
⚽ 16'
D
3
M. Woledzi
⚽ 49'
D
2
D. Lovitz
D
6
B. Acosta
🎯 49' ↓ 79'
M
16
M. Corcoran
M
7
C. Espinoza
🎯 16' ↓ 89' 🟨 86'
M
41
W. Madrigal
↓ 79'
M
37
A. Qasem
↓ 71' 🟨 65'
M
10
H. Mukhtar
F
Substitutes
1
J. Willis
G
5
J. Maher
D
22
J. Bauer
↑ 89'
D
14
S. Mohammed
M
9
S. Surridge
↑ 71'
F
19
A. Muyl
↑ 79'
M
17
W. Pacius
F
23
J. Knight
D
12
C. Brunet
↑ 79'
M
New York City FC 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
49
M. Freese
G
24
T. Gray
D
13
Thiago Martins
D
34
Raul Gustavo
D
2
N. Cavallo
↓ 85'
D
5
K. Trewin
↓ 85' 🟨 25'
M
8
A. Perea
↓ 78'
M
26
A. Ojeda
M
87
A. Farnos
↓ 66'
M
88
M. Jones
↓ 66'
M
7
N. Mercau
⚽ 23'
F
Substitutes
30
T. Romero
G
17
H. Wolf
↑ 66'
F
29
M. Carrizo
↑ 78'
M
71
P. Molinari
M
19
S. Tanasijevic
D
45
K. Acito
32
J. Shore
↑ 66'
M
99
S. Reid
↑ 85'
F
15
K. Pierre
↑ 85'
M
Last matches: Nashville SC
18.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Los Angeles FC
3
2
W
13.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New England Revolution
3
0
W
10.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
DC United
2
2
D
06.05.26
CON
Nashville SC
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
02.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Philadelphia Union
0
0
D
29.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
26.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Charlotte
4
2
W
18.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC
2
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Club America
1
0
W
11.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Charlotte
2
1
W
08.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Club America
0
0
D
05.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
21.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Orlando City SC
5
0
W
18.03.26
CON
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
1
1
D
14.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Columbus Crew
1
0
W
11.03.26
CON
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
0
0
D
08.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Minnesota United FC
3
1
W
01.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
FC Dallas
0
0
D
25.02.26
CON
Nashville SC
Atlético Ottawa
5
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New England Revolution
4
1
W
Last matches: New York City FC
16.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
0
W
10.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Columbus Crew
3
0
W
03.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
DC United
0
2
L
25.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
CF Montreal
0
1
L
22.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
FC Cincinnati
4
4
D
18.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
2
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
2
L
04.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
St. Louis City
1
1
D
22.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Inter Miami
2
3
L
14.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Colorado Rapids
3
1
W
07.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Orlando City SC
5
0
W
01.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
23.02.26
Maj
New York City FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Sporting Kansas City
1
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Los Angeles FC
1
1
D
01.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Austin
2
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
New York City FC
Tampa Bay Rowdies
2
2
D
H2H: Nashville SC vs New York City FC
24.05.26
H2H
Nashville SC
New York City FC
2
1
W
17.08.25
H2H
New York City FC
Nashville SC
2
1
L
31.05.25
H2H
Nashville SC
New York City FC
2
2
D
06.10.24
H2H
New York City FC
Nashville SC
3
1
L
23.06.24
H2H
Nashville SC
New York City FC
1
0
W
15.04.23
H2H
New York City FC
Nashville SC
2
1
L
25.02.23
H2H
Nashville SC
New York City FC
2
0
W
03.10.21
H2H
New York City FC
Nashville SC
0
0
D
03.09.21
H2H
Nashville SC
New York City FC
3
1
W
Last matches: Nashville SC
18.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Los Angeles FC
3
2
W
10.05.26
Maj
Nashville SC
DC United
2
2
D
29.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Tigres UANL
0
1
L
26.04.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Charlotte
4
2
W
08.04.26
CON
Nashville SC
Club America
0
0
D
21.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Orlando City SC
5
0
W
11.03.26
CON
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
0
0
D
08.03.26
Maj
Nashville SC
Minnesota United FC
3
1
W
25.02.26
CON
Nashville SC
Atlético Ottawa
5
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
Nashville SC
New England Revolution
4
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Nashville SC
Lexington
1
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
Nashville SC
Columbus Crew
1
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
Nashville SC
Colorado Rapids
3
1
W
H2H at home: Nashville SC
24.05.26
H2H
Nashville SC
New York City FC
2
1
W
31.05.25
H2H
Nashville SC
New York City FC
2
2
D
23.06.24
H2H
Nashville SC
New York City FC
1
0
W
25.02.23
H2H
Nashville SC
New York City FC
2
0
W
03.09.21
H2H
Nashville SC
New York City FC
3
1
W
Last matches: New York City FC
16.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
13.05.26
Maj
New York City FC
Charlotte
1
0
W
25.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
CF Montreal
0
1
L
11.04.26
Maj
New York City FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
2
L
01.03.26
Maj
New York City FC
Philadelphia Union
2
1
W
23.02.26
Maj
New York City FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Sporting Kansas City
1
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
New York City FC
Los Angeles FC
1
1
D
H2H away: New York City FC
24.05.26
H2H
Nashville SC
New York City FC
2
1
L
31.05.25
H2H
Nashville SC
New York City FC
2
2
D
23.06.24
H2H
Nashville SC
New York City FC
1
0
L
25.02.23
H2H
Nashville SC
New York City FC
2
0
L
03.09.21
H2H
Nashville SC
New York City FC
3
1
L

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 14 10 3 1 31:11 20 33
W W W D D
2 15 9 4 2 39:28 11 31
W W W W L
3 14 8 2 4 27:16 11 26
W W W L L
4 14 8 1 5 22:18 4 25
L W L W W
5 15 6 4 5 25:32 -7 22
W D W W L
6 15 6 3 6 24:23 1 21
W W L D L
7 15 5 5 5 36:37 -1 20
W D L D W
8 15 5 4 6 25:21 4 19
L D W W L
9 15 4 6 5 21:25 -4 18
D D L D W
10 15 4 4 7 21:23 -2 16
W D L L L
11 14 4 2 8 22:31 -9 14
D L D W L
12 15 4 2 9 23:44 -21 14
L D W L W
13 14 3 5 6 22:29 -7 14
L L L D L
14 14 3 2 9 14:23 -9 11
L D L W W
15 15 1 4 10 18:30 -12 7
L D L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

Nashville SC 4 missing
-
S. Surridge
Questionable Back Injury
OUT
-
E. Tagseth
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
P. Yazbek
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
A. Najar
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
New York City FC 7 missing
-
A. Martinez
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
D. Baiera
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
K. O'Toole
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
M. Moralez
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. O'Neill
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
K. Parks
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT
-
Talles Magno
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT