ITALY › SERIE A
10.10.2026 18:45
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

Napoli vs Frosinone Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 56%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
56%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Napoli Win 36.4%
Draw 7.7%
Frosinone Win 56%
Expected Goals (xG)
Napoli1.41
Frosinone1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Napoli Napoli
WWDLW
19 GF / 14 GA
Frosinone Frosinone
WLDWL
22 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.73
Average Goals Scored
1.69
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
7
BTTS Yes
8
5
Over 2.5
6
4
Shots on Goal
6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Napoli Napoli 11 matches
Frosinone Frosinone 13 matches
Napoli Statistic Frosinone
5 Wins 7
2 Draws 4
4 Losses 2
19 Goals For 22
14 Goals Against 12
1.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
7 BTTS Yes 8
9 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 4
1 Failed To Score 1
4 Shots On Goal 6
12.33 Total Shots 17.29
4.5 Corners 5.43
48.5% Ball Possession 44.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Frosinone carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 10 points while Napoli sit 9 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Frosinone. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Napoli Analysis

Napoli are currently 9 in the standings with 7 points from 5 matches. The record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 7:6 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Rasmus Højlund (2 goals), Matteo Politano (1 goals), Stanislav Lobotka (1 goals), with creative support from Matteo Politano (1 assists), Amir Rrahmani (1 assists), Giovanni Di Lorenzo (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Frosinone Analysis

From their first 5 matches, Frosinone have collected 10 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 9:4 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Antonio Raimondo (4 goals), Giorgi Kvernadze (3 goals), Giacomo Calò (1 goals), with creative support from Romano Schmid (3 assists), Giorgi Kvernadze (1 assists), Giacomo Calò (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Napoli won 5 times, Frosinone won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:8 from Napoli's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.3%)
Predicted formations: Napoli 4-2-3-1 / Frosinone 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Napoli wins 5, draws 1, Frosinone wins 1

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 4 1 0 14:3 11 13
D W W W W
2 5 4 1 0 15:8 7 13
D W W W W
3 5 4 1 0 8:3 5 13
W D W W W
4 5 4 0 1 5:2 3 12
W W W L W
5 5 3 2 0 10:4 6 11
W D D W W
6 5 3 1 1 9:4 5 10
W D W W L
7 5 3 1 1 8:4 4 10
W L D W W
8 5 3 1 1 9:6 3 10
L W W W D
9 5 2 1 2 7:6 1 7
D W L L W
10 5 2 1 2 9:9 0 7
L W D W L
11 5 2 0 3 5:7 -2 6
L L L W W
12 5 2 0 3 5:10 -5 6
L W L L W
13 5 1 1 3 8:11 -3 4
L L L W D
14 5 1 1 3 5:8 -3 4
D L W L L
15 5 1 1 3 4:7 -3 4
W L D L L
16 5 1 1 3 8:12 -4 4
W L D L L
17 5 1 1 3 6:12 -6 4
D W L L L
18 5 0 2 3 3:6 -3 2
D L D L L
19 5 0 1 4 3:10 -7 1
L D L L L
20 5 0 0 5 4:13 -9 0
L L L L L
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