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FRANCE › LIGUE 2
09.10.2026 18:00
Stade Marcel Picot

Nancy vs Guingamp Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61%
Odds 2.05
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.85
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61%
2.05 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.85 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Nancy Win 61%
Draw 14.4%
Guingamp Win 24.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nancy1.78
Guingamp1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nancy Nancy
WWDLW
28 GF / 17 GA
Guingamp Guingamp
WLDWL
18 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.87
Average Goals Scored
1.29
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
7
BTTS Yes
9
8
Over 2.5
8
3.57
Shots on Goal
5.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nancy Nancy 15 matches
Guingamp Guingamp 14 matches
Nancy Statistic Guingamp
5 Wins 4
5 Draws 4
5 Losses 6
28 Goals For 18
17 Goals Against 23
1.87 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
7 BTTS Yes 9
10 Over 1.5 10
8 Over 2.5 8
6 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 3
3.57 Shots On Goal 5.71
14 Total Shots 14.29
4 Corners 4
55.7% Ball Possession 52.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Nancy's more proactive style and Guingamp's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Guingamp.

Nancy Analysis

So far, Nancy have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 10 points from 7 matches. The record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 8:7 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through B. Bokangu (4 goals), P. Meïssa Ba (2 goals), N. Fernandez-Veliz (2 goals), with creative support from I. Housni (2 assists), N. Kandil (2 assists), P. Meïssa Ba (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Guingamp Analysis

Guingamp are currently 11 in the standings with 8 points from 7 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 10:12 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on D. Gomis (2 goals), S. Kielt (2 goals), E. Koffi (1 goals), with creative support from T. Averlant (2 assists), D. Gomis (1 assists), E. Koffi (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Nancy won 1 times, Guingamp won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:20 from Nancy's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.58 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.6%)
Predicted formations: Nancy 4-4-2 / Guingamp 4-4-2
H2H summary: Nancy wins 1, draws 5, Guingamp wins 6

Standings

Ligue 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 1 1 19:8 11 16
D L W W W
2 7 4 2 1 9:7 2 14
W W W L D
3 7 3 4 0 15:9 6 13
D W D W W
4 7 3 3 1 6:5 1 12
D W L D W
5 7 2 4 1 10:7 3 10
D L W D D
6
Nancy Home
7 3 1 3 8:7 1 10
W L L W W
7 7 3 1 3 9:9 0 10
L L W D L
8 7 2 4 1 4:5 -1 10
D W D D W
9 7 2 3 2 10:10 0 9
W W D L D
10 7 2 2 3 6:6 0 8
W L D D L
11 7 2 2 3 10:12 -2 8
L W D D L
12 7 2 2 3 10:12 -2 8
L W D L L
13 7 2 2 3 8:11 -3 8
D W L W L
14 7 2 1 4 14:16 -2 7
L L L D W
15 7 2 1 4 9:13 -4 7
W L W D L
16 7 0 6 1 4:6 -2 6
D D D D D
17 7 0 5 2 3:5 -2 5
L D D D D
18 7 1 2 4 8:14 -6 5
D L L L D
Promotion - Ligue 1
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Final)
Promotion - Ligue 1 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Ligue 3