KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.9%
-
BTTS No
65.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Naivas Win 61.9%
Draw 4.4%
Mombasa Elite Win 33.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Naivas1.09
Mombasa Elite1.11
Recent Form (Last 5)
Naivas Naivas
WWDLW
46 GF / 29 GA
Mombasa Elite Mombasa Elite
WLDWL
48 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
1.33
0.78
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
13
BTTS Yes
11
13
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Naivas Naivas 37 matches
Mombasa Elite Mombasa Elite 36 matches
Naivas Statistic Mombasa Elite
17 Wins 23
9 Draws 3
11 Losses 10
46 Goals For 48
29 Goals Against 31
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
0.78 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
13 BTTS Yes 11
19 Over 1.5 21
13 Over 2.5 15
6 Over 3.5 8
16 Clean Sheets 16
13 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Mombasa Elite having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Mombasa Elite.

Naivas Analysis

From their first 37 matches, Naivas have collected 60 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 17 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, while the 46:29 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Mombasa Elite Analysis

Mombasa Elite arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 75 points after 37 matches. Their overall return of 24 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 50:31 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 10 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Naivas won 5 times, Mombasa Elite won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:8 from Naivas's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.36 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
H2H summary: Naivas wins 5, draws 5, Mombasa Elite wins 1
Last matches: Naivas
07.06.26
Sup
Naivas
Kabati Youth FC
1
2
L
01.06.26
Sup
Naivas
Vihiga United FC
2
0
W
28.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Mwatate United
2
0
W
24.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
16.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Darajani Gogo
3
0
W
09.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Gucha Stars
0
0
D
01.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Kisumu All Stars
4
0
W
25.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Talanta
4
1
W
18.04.26
Sup
Naivas
3K
1
2
L
12.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Migori Youth
0
1
L
03.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
28.03.26
Sup
Naivas
Fortune Sacco
3
3
D
21.03.26
Sup
Naivas
MCF
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Naivas
Nairobi City Stars
3
1
W
07.03.26
Sup
Naivas
MOFA
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Luanda Villa
3
0
W
22.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Soy United
1
0
W
14.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Equity Bank
1
1
D
31.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
24.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
Last matches: Mombasa Elite
07.06.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
01.06.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
27.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
3K
0
0
D
24.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Mwatate United
1
0
W
17.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Nairobi City Stars
2
1
W
10.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Talanta
0
3
L
03.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Migori Youth
0
0
D
26.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Gucha Stars
1
0
W
19.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Soy United
1
0
W
11.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
L
03.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
29.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
MCF
3
1
W
22.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
15.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kabati Youth FC
2
0
W
07.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Equity Bank
3
1
W
27.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
MOFA
1
0
W
20.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Darajani Gogo
2
1
W
15.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kisumu All Stars
4
0
W
01.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
24.01.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
H2H: Naivas vs Mombasa Elite
13.06.26
H2H
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
1
1
D
29.10.25
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Naivas
1
0
L
08.06.25
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Naivas
0
2
W
08.06.25
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Naivas
0
2
W
05.10.24
H2H
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
4
0
W
19.05.24
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Naivas
0
0
D
16.12.23
H2H
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
1
0
W
02.07.23
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Naivas
2
2
D
20.03.23
H2H
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
3
1
W
01.06.22
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Naivas
2
2
D
20.03.22
H2H
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
1
1
D
Last matches: Naivas
01.06.26
Sup
Naivas
Vihiga United FC
2
0
W
16.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Darajani Gogo
3
0
W
01.05.26
Sup
Naivas
Kisumu All Stars
4
0
W
18.04.26
Sup
Naivas
3K
1
2
L
03.04.26
Sup
Naivas
Kibera Black Stars
2
1
W
28.03.26
Sup
Naivas
Fortune Sacco
3
3
D
14.03.26
Sup
Naivas
Nairobi City Stars
3
1
W
28.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Luanda Villa
3
0
W
14.02.26
Sup
Naivas
Equity Bank
1
1
D
17.01.26
Sup
Naivas
Migori Youth
2
4
L
20.12.25
Sup
Naivas
Talanta
1
0
W
17.12.25
Sup
Naivas
Gucha Stars
0
1
L
07.12.25
Sup
Naivas
Nzoia Sugar
0
1
L
22.11.25
Sup
Naivas
MOFA
0
0
D
08.11.25
Sup
Naivas
Soy United
2
1
W
03.11.25
Sup
Naivas
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
25.10.25
Sup
Naivas
Mwatate United
3
1
W
04.10.25
Sup
Naivas
MCF
1
0
W
H2H at home: Naivas
13.06.26
H2H
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
1
1
D
05.10.24
H2H
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
4
0
W
16.12.23
H2H
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
1
0
W
20.03.23
H2H
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
3
1
W
20.03.22
H2H
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
1
1
D
Last matches: Mombasa Elite
01.06.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
24.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Mwatate United
1
0
W
10.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Talanta
0
3
L
26.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Gucha Stars
1
0
W
11.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
L
22.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
07.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Equity Bank
3
1
W
20.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Darajani Gogo
2
1
W
01.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
24.01.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
11.01.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Soy United
0
1
L
12.12.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Migori Youth
2
3
L
02.12.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Nairobi City Stars
0
1
L
29.11.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
MOFA
0
4
L
15.11.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kisumu All Stars
0
2
L
02.11.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Nzoia Sugar
2
2
D
26.10.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
3K
0
2
L
27.09.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
MCF
1
0
W
H2H away: Mombasa Elite
13.06.26
H2H
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
1
1
D
05.10.24
H2H
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
4
0
L
16.12.23
H2H
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
1
0
L
20.03.23
H2H
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
3
1
L
20.03.22
H2H
Naivas
Mombasa Elite
1
1
D

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation