Nacional
Match Timeline
Estrela
Nacional vs Estrela Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
1X2
Home Win
BTTS
Yes
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
All Markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
70%
|
2.41 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
78.8%
|
1.75 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
61.1%
|
2.02 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
80.8%
|
1.21 | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
3.75 | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
9.50 |
Probability Distribution
Nacional Win 70%
Draw 7.7%
Estrela Win 22.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional1.12
Estrela1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional
WWDLW
9 GF / 11 GA
Estrela
WLDWL
16 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.78
1.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
4
BTTS Yes
6
3
Over 2.5
4
2.33
Shots on Goal
5
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Nacional
8 matches
Estrela
9 matches
| Nacional | Statistic | Estrela |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wins | 4 |
| 4 | Draws | 4 |
| 3 | Losses | 1 |
| 9 | Goals For | 16 |
| 11 | Goals Against | 10 |
| 1.13 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.78 |
| 1.38 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.11 |
| 4 | BTTS Yes | 6 |
| 6 | Over 1.5 | 8 |
| 3 | Over 2.5 | 4 |
| 2 | Over 3.5 | 3 |
| 2 | Clean Sheets | 3 |
| 3 | Failed To Score | 0 |
| 2.33 | Shots On Goal | 5 |
| 12.33 | Total Shots | 9 |
| 4.67 | Corners | 2.5 |
| 51.7% | Ball Possession | 49% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
H2H Analysis
Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Nacional won 3 times, Estrela won 4 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:8 from Nacional's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.78 goals per game.
1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.4%)
Predicted formations: Nacional 3-4-2-1 / Estrela 4-3-3
H2H summary: Nacional wins 3, draws 2, Estrela wins 4
Standings
Primeira Liga
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18:3 | 15 | 21 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 20:9 | 11 | 18 |
W
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22:7 | 15 | 16 |
L
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 11:4 | 7 | 15 |
D
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:7 | 3 | 11 |
D
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 6 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 6:5 | 1 | 11 |
W
D
L
L
D
|
|
| 7 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 11 |
L
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 8 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 0 | 11 |
W
W
W
L
D
|
|
| 9 |
Estrela
Away
|
7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14:14 | 0 | 10 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
| 10 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 8 |
W
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8:12 | -4 | 8 |
D
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8:15 | -7 | 8 |
L
D
W
L
L
|
|
| 13 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9:7 | 2 | 7 |
W
D
D
D
L
|
|
| 14 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5:8 | -3 | 5 |
D
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 15 |
Nacional
Home
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7:15 | -8 | 4 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
| 16 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5:15 | -10 | 4 |
L
D
L
L
W
|
|
| 17 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3:16 | -13 | 4 |
W
L
D
L
L
|
|
| 18 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3:10 | -7 | 2 |
L
L
D
L
L
|
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2