BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Nacional AM
Match Timeline
ABC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
21'
Luiz Fernando
ABC
45+6'
Luiz Fernando
ABC
46'
Fredson
Nacional AM

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 65.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 50%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
65.7%
-
BTTS Yes
50%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
-
Correct Score 1-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nacional AM Win 34.3%
Draw 21.7%
ABC Win 44%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional AM0.97
ABC1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional AM Nacional AM
WWDLW
19 GF / 12 GA
ABC ABC
WLDWL
25 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
1.56
0.75
Average Goals Conceded
0.63
6
BTTS Yes
6
3
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional AM Nacional AM 16 matches
ABC ABC 16 matches
Nacional AM Statistic ABC
8 Wins 10
5 Draws 4
3 Losses 2
19 Goals For 25
12 Goals Against 10
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
0.75 Avg Goals Conceded 0.63
6 BTTS Yes 6
8 Over 1.5 11
3 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 2
8 Clean Sheets 9
4 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

In knockout conditions, this fixture pairs two sides with a fairly similar football identity, which should make the margins especially important. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward ABC having the stronger overall control. ABC look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring ABC.

Nacional AM Analysis

Nacional AM come into this tie placed 2 in their league with 20 points from 10 matches. With 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses plus a goal ratio of 15:9, they bring good form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on their main attacking players, while defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around balanced attacking football.

ABC Analysis

ABC enter this tie with a season profile built on 23 points from 10 matches, placing them 1 in their league. Their record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats with goals at 15:6 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking weight falls on their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Nacional AM won 0 times, ABC won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:3 from Nacional AM's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.3%)
H2H summary: Nacional AM wins 0, draws 0, ABC wins 2
Last matches: Nacional AM
16.08.26
Ser
Nacional AM
ABC
0
1
L
25.07.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Iguatu
1
1
D
18.07.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Iguatu
1
1
D
12.07.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Capital Brasilia
0
1
L
04.07.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Capital Brasilia
1
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Araguaína
0
0
D
21.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Araguaína
1
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Monte Roraima
3
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manaus FC
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
GAS
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manauara
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Sao Raimundo
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Sao Raimundo
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manauara
2
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
GAS
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manaus FC
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Monte Roraima
1
0
W
Last matches: ABC
16.08.26
Ser
ABC
Nacional AM
1
0
W
26.07.26
Ser
ABC
Luverdense
4
1
W
18.07.26
Ser
ABC
Luverdense
0
0
D
12.07.26
Ser
ABC
Águia de Marabá
3
0
W
04.07.26
Ser
ABC
Águia de Marabá
1
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
ABC
Altos
1
1
D
21.06.26
Ser
ABC
Altos
1
0
W
14.06.26
Ser
ABC
Maguary PE
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
ABC
Laguna
2
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
ABC
America-RN
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
ABC
Sousa
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
ABC
Central SC
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
ABC
Central SC
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
ABC
Sousa
1
0
W
22.04.26
Ser
ABC
America-RN
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
ABC
Laguna
4
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
ABC
Maguary PE
0
3
L
H2H: Nacional AM vs ABC
16.08.26
H2H
ABC
Nacional AM
1
0
L
08.08.26
H2H
Nacional AM
ABC
1
2
L
Last matches: Nacional AM
18.07.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Iguatu
1
1
D
04.07.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Capital Brasilia
1
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Araguaína
0
0
D
14.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Monte Roraima
3
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manauara
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Sao Raimundo
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
GAS
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manaus FC
2
0
W
H2H at home: Nacional AM
08.08.26
H2H
Nacional AM
ABC
1
2
L
Last matches: ABC
18.07.26
Ser
ABC
Luverdense
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
ABC
Águia de Marabá
1
2
L
21.06.26
Ser
ABC
Altos
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
ABC
Laguna
2
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
ABC
Central SC
1
0
W
25.04.26
Ser
ABC
Sousa
1
0
W
22.04.26
Ser
ABC
America-RN
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
ABC
Maguary PE
0
3
L
H2H away: ABC
08.08.26
H2H
Nacional AM
ABC
1
2
W

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)