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NETHERLANDS › EERSTE DIVISIE
26.09.2026 18:00
De Geusselt
MVV
Match Timeline
Helmond Sport
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
49'
Olivier·Dumont · Assist: Elias Sierra
MVV
🔄
50'
Lennerd Daneels ↔ Onesime Zimuangana
MVV
🟨
56'
Olivier·Dumont
MVV
🟨
56'
Thomas Poll
Helmond Sport
🟨
57'
Sem Dekkers
Helmond Sport
🔄
61'
Tarik Essakkati ↔ Mauro Lenaerts
Helmond Sport
🟨
67'
Brian Koglin
Helmond Sport
🔄
71'
Thomas Poll ↔ Brian van den Boogaard
Helmond Sport
🔄
71'
Pol Llonch ↔ Kiton Ekoli
Helmond Sport
⚽
78'
Elias Sierra · Assist: Sil van der Wegen
MVV
🔄
85'
Xander van der Velde ↔ alen dizdarevic
Helmond Sport
🔄
86'
Noa El Hamdaoui ↔ Naim Matoug
MVV

MVV vs Helmond Sport Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.5%
Odds 2.21
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.68
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.5%
2.21 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.9%
1.53 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.68 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.2%
1.25 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.25 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
MVV Win 72.5%
Draw 12.4%
Helmond Sport Win 15.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
MVV1.49
Helmond Sport1.54
Recent Form (Last 5)
MVV MVV
WWDLW
21 GF / 32 GA
Helmond Sport Helmond Sport
WLDWL
16 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.23
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.77
10
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
7
3.43
Shots on Goal
3.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

MVV MVV 16 matches
Helmond Sport Helmond Sport 13 matches
MVV Statistic Helmond Sport
5 Wins 3
5 Draws 3
6 Losses 7
21 Goals For 16
32 Goals Against 23
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.23
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.77
10 BTTS Yes 9
12 Over 1.5 12
10 Over 2.5 7
7 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 1
5 Failed To Score 3
3.43 Shots On Goal 3.43
9.29 Total Shots 10.86
3.57 Corners 4
53.1% Ball Possession 42.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Helmond Sport's more proactive style and MVV's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Helmond Sport. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with MVV expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Helmond Sport in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Helmond Sport having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. MVV arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 13 points compared to Helmond Sport in 13 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

MVV Analysis

MVV come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 13 points from 7 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 10:15 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by O. Dumont (3 goals), N. El Hamdaoui (1 goals), with creative support from O. Dumont (1 assists), M. Hofland (1 assists), R. Klaasen (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Helmond Sport Analysis

From their first 7 matches, Helmond Sport have collected 8 points and now occupy 13 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 13:12 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Mauro Lenaerts (3 goals), L. Cicero (2 goals), T. Essakkati (1 goals), with creative support from T. Essakkati (2 assists), H. Ingason (2 assists), L. Cicero (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, MVV won 8 times, Helmond Sport won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:17 from MVV's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.14 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.6%)
Predicted formations: MVV 4-3-3 / Helmond Sport 4-4-2
H2H summary: MVV wins 8, draws 3, Helmond Sport wins 3

Standings

Eerste Divisie: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 1 1 28:12 16 22
D W L W W
2 9 6 1 2 19:7 12 19
W L W W L
3 9 6 0 3 23:14 9 18
W L W W L
4 9 5 1 3 19:18 1 16
D W L L W
5
MVV Home
9 5 1 3 13:19 -6 16
L W L L D
6 9 4 3 2 9:7 2 15
L W D W D
7 9 3 5 1 19:12 7 14
D L W W W
8 9 4 2 3 15:13 2 14
D L W L W
9 9 4 2 3 19:19 0 14
D W W L L
10 9 4 1 4 22:17 5 13
W D L W W
11 9 4 0 5 20:17 3 12
L W L W L
12 9 3 3 3 14:16 -2 12
L D L W D
13 9 3 2 4 15:19 -4 11
D L W W D
14 9 2 3 4 15:16 -1 9
D L L W W
15 9 3 0 6 12:14 -2 9
W L W L L
16 9 2 2 5 13:18 -5 8
D L W L L
17 9 2 2 5 13:22 -9 8
D L L W D
18 9 2 2 5 13:24 -11 8
D W L L L
19 9 2 2 5 11:22 -11 8
D W L W L
20 9 2 1 6 15:21 -6 7
L W W D L
Promotion - Eredivisie
Promotion - Eredivisie (Promotion)