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ECUADOR › LIGA PRO
23.05.2026 19:00
Estadio COAC Mushuc Runa
Referee: Eloy Vicente Beltran Moreira, Ecuador
Mushuc Runa SC
Match Timeline
Guayaquil City FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
12'
F. Mina ↔ R. Ibarra
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
44'
Renato Ibarra
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
44'
Damián Díaz
Guayaquil City FC
⚽
45'
R. Carrillo · Assist: E. Davila
Mushuc Runa SC
⚽
45'
K. Velasco · Assist: E. Davila
Mushuc Runa SC
⚽
45'
D. Diaz · Assist: E. Mero
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
57'
P. Mancilla ↔ J. Ordonez
Guayaquil City FC
🟨
58'
Nicolás Dávila
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
67'
Santiago Laurino
Guayaquil City FC
⚽
71'
D. Diaz
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
77'
C. Orejuela ↔ T. Minda
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
77'
E. Davila ↔ A. Cela
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
79'
Gilmar Napa
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
88'
P. Gonzalez ↔ A. Naula
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
88'
Y. Rodriguez ↔ E. P. Ladines Calvache
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
88'
D. Arroyo ↔ K. Sambonino
Guayaquil City FC
🔄
90'
L. Lemos ↔ E. Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
90+12'
E. Mero ↔ M. Palma
Guayaquil City FC

Mushuc Runa SC vs Guayaquil City FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
73.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Mushuc Runa SC Win 54.8%
Draw 5.5%
Guayaquil City FC Win 39.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mushuc Runa SC1.13
Guayaquil City FC1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
WWDLW
17 GF / 19 GA
Guayaquil City FC Guayaquil City FC
WLDWL
13 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.21
Average Goals Scored
0.76
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1
8
BTTS Yes
6
7
Over 2.5
5
3.79
Shots on Goal
3.21

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC 14 matches
Guayaquil City FC Guayaquil City FC 17 matches
Mushuc Runa SC Statistic Guayaquil City FC
4 Wins 6
4 Draws 3
6 Losses 8
17 Goals For 13
19 Goals Against 17
1.21 Avg Goals Scored 0.76
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1
8 BTTS Yes 6
9 Over 1.5 7
7 Over 2.5 5
6 Over 3.5 2
5 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 7
3.79 Shots On Goal 3.21
12.86 Total Shots 8.64
4.57 Corners 3.14
47.6% Ball Possession 55.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Guayaquil City FC. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mushuc Runa SC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Guayaquil City FC in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Guayaquil City FC having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Mushuc Runa SC Analysis

With 16 points from 14 games and a place of 10, Mushuc Runa SC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats with a 17:19 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Ronie Carrillo (4 goals), Freddy Mina (3 goals), F. Castelli (2 goals), with creative support from K. Velasco (3 assists), Jackson González (2 assists), Ronie Carrillo (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Guayaquil City FC Analysis

Guayaquil City FC sit 9 with 18 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats with a 10:13 goal balance points toward mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on E. Mero (4 goals), D. Diaz (2 goals), P. Gonzalez (2 goals), with creative support from J. J. Ayovi Caicedo (4 assists), D. Diaz (1 assists), P. Gonzalez (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Mushuc Runa SC won 6 times, Guayaquil City FC won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:27 from Mushuc Runa SC's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.5%)
Predicted formations: Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2 / Guayaquil City FC 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Mushuc Runa SC wins 6, draws 2, Guayaquil City FC wins 7

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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