SCOTLAND › PREMIERSHIP
11.10.2026 11:00
Fir Park

Motherwell vs Celtic Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Motherwell Win 30.9%
Draw 14.2%
Celtic Win 54.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Motherwell1.45
Celtic1.75
Recent Form (Last 5)
Motherwell Motherwell
WWDLW
22 GF / 27 GA
Celtic Celtic
WLDWL
24 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.71
1.8
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
7
BTTS Yes
9
10
Over 2.5
9
3.15
Shots on Goal
7.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Motherwell Motherwell 15 matches
Celtic Celtic 14 matches
Motherwell Statistic Celtic
5 Wins 7
3 Draws 3
7 Losses 4
22 Goals For 24
27 Goals Against 20
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.71
1.8 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
7 BTTS Yes 9
13 Over 1.5 11
10 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 1
3.15 Shots On Goal 7.2
8.31 Total Shots 18.1
3.69 Corners 9
45.8% Ball Possession 59.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Celtic's more proactive style and Motherwell's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Celtic carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 18 points while Motherwell sit 9 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Celtic look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Celtic. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Motherwell Analysis

With 8 points from 7 games and a place of 9, Motherwell still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 9:11 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Lowry (2 goals), Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise (1 goals), L. Fadinger (1 goals), with creative support from Tawanda Jethro Maswanhise (2 assists), T. Sparrow (2 assists), A. Lowry (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Celtic Analysis

Celtic approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 18 points after 7 outings. They have recorded 6 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, with a 14:4 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on B. Nygren (3 goals), C. Durán (3 goals), K. Høgh (3 goals), with creative support from B. Nygren (3 assists), C. Durán (3 assists), K. Tierney (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Motherwell won 1 times, Celtic won 12 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:40 from Motherwell's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.8%)
Predicted formations: Motherwell 4-2-3-1 / Celtic 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Motherwell wins 1, draws 2, Celtic wins 12

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 6 0 1 14:4 10 18
L W W W W
2 7 5 1 1 8:4 4 16
W W W W W
3 7 4 1 2 14:8 6 13
D L W W W
4 7 3 1 3 9:7 2 10
W L D L W
5 7 3 1 3 8:9 -1 10
L L L W D
6 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
D L W D L
7 7 2 2 3 7:8 -1 8
D W D L L
8 7 2 2 3 9:11 -2 8
W D L W L
9 7 2 2 3 9:11 -2 8
L L L W D
10 7 2 1 4 8:11 -3 7
D L L L W
11 7 1 3 3 6:9 -3 6
D W D L L
12 7 1 2 4 6:15 -9 5
D W D L L
Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)
Premiership (Relegation Group)