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PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA
09.10.2026 17:45
Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas
Referee: Miguel Bertolo Nogueira

Moreirense vs GIL Vicente Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.1%
Odds 3.39
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.95
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.27
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.1%
3.39 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.95 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.27 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
85%
1.14 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
12.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Moreirense Win 63.1%
Draw 7.1%
GIL Vicente Win 29.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Moreirense1.15
GIL Vicente1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Moreirense Moreirense
WWDLW
16 GF / 22 GA
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente
WLDWL
9 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1
1.83
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
8
BTTS Yes
4
9
Over 2.5
2
2.86
Shots on Goal
3.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Moreirense Moreirense 12 matches
GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 9 matches
Moreirense Statistic GIL Vicente
3 Wins 3
4 Draws 4
5 Losses 2
16 Goals For 9
22 Goals Against 8
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.83 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
8 BTTS Yes 4
11 Over 1.5 5
9 Over 2.5 2
6 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 2
2.86 Shots On Goal 3.83
7.29 Total Shots 14
2.14 Corners 3.67
35.7% Ball Possession 53.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward GIL Vicente. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Moreirense Analysis

So far, Moreirense have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 8 points from 7 matches. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 8:14 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Duville-Parsemain (1 goals), João Veloso (1 goals), Tiago Andrade (1 goals), with creative support from A. Duville-Parsemain (1 assists), João Veloso (1 assists), Tiago Andrade (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

GIL Vicente Analysis

GIL Vicente sit 9 with 8 points after 6 league matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 5:5 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Héctor Hernández (3 goals), Gil Pinto Martins (1 goals), Murilo (1 goals), with creative support from Gil Pinto Martins (2 assists), Héctor Hernández (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Moreirense won 7 times, GIL Vicente won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:17 from Moreirense's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.9%)
Predicted formations: Moreirense 4-2-3-1 / GIL Vicente 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Moreirense wins 7, draws 4, GIL Vicente wins 4

Standings

Primeira Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 7 0 0 18:3 15 21
W W W W W
2 7 5 1 1 22:7 15 16
L W W W W
3 7 4 3 0 17:8 9 15
D D W W W
4 7 4 3 0 11:4 7 15
D W W D W
5 7 3 2 2 10:7 3 11
D L D W L
6 6 3 2 1 7:5 2 11
D W L W W
7 7 3 2 2 9:9 0 11
W W W L D
8 7 2 4 1 14:14 0 10
L D W D W
9 6 2 2 2 5:5 0 8
D L L D W
10 7 2 2 3 9:11 -2 8
W W L D L
11 7 2 2 3 8:12 -4 8
D L L L D
12 7 2 2 3 8:14 -6 8
D W L L W
13 7 1 4 2 9:7 2 7
W D D D L
14 7 1 2 4 5:8 -3 5
D L D L W
15 7 1 1 5 7:15 -8 4
L L L L L
16 7 1 1 5 5:15 -10 4
L D L L W
17 7 1 1 5 3:16 -13 4
W L D L L
18 7 0 2 5 3:10 -7 2
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2