KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS No
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mombasa Elite Win 100%
Draw 0%
Nairobi City Stars Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mombasa Elite1.25
Nairobi City Stars0.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mombasa Elite Mombasa Elite
WWDLW
44 GF / 29 GA
Nairobi City Stars Nairobi City Stars
WLDWL
25 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
0.81
0.94
Average Goals Conceded
1
10
BTTS Yes
11
14
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mombasa Elite Mombasa Elite 31 matches
Nairobi City Stars Nairobi City Stars 31 matches
Mombasa Elite Statistic Nairobi City Stars
20 Wins 8
2 Draws 10
9 Losses 13
44 Goals For 25
29 Goals Against 31
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 0.81
0.94 Avg Goals Conceded 1
10 BTTS Yes 11
20 Over 1.5 16
14 Over 2.5 6
8 Over 3.5 4
13 Clean Sheets 10
9 Failed To Score 13
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Mombasa Elite's more proactive style and Nairobi City Stars's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nairobi City Stars. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nairobi City Stars having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Nairobi City Stars arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Mombasa Elite arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 65 points compared to Nairobi City Stars in 12 on 37, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Mombasa Elite Analysis

Placed 3 with 65 points from 32 outings, Mombasa Elite continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 21 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 46:29 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 15 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Nairobi City Stars Analysis

Nairobi City Stars sit 12 with 37 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 10 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 28:31 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Mombasa Elite won 1 times, Nairobi City Stars won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:2 from Mombasa Elite's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
H2H summary: Mombasa Elite wins 1, draws 0, Nairobi City Stars wins 1
Last matches: Mombasa Elite
13.06.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Naivas
1
1
D
07.06.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
01.06.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
27.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
3K
0
0
D
24.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Mwatate United
1
0
W
10.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Talanta
0
3
L
03.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Migori Youth
0
0
D
26.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Gucha Stars
1
0
W
19.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Soy United
1
0
W
11.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
L
03.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
29.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
MCF
3
1
W
22.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Fortune Sacco
0
1
L
15.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kabati Youth FC
2
0
W
07.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Equity Bank
3
1
W
27.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
MOFA
1
0
W
20.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Darajani Gogo
2
1
W
15.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kisumu All Stars
4
0
W
01.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
24.01.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
Last matches: Nairobi City Stars
13.06.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Darajani Gogo
0
3
L
07.06.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Talanta
1
5
L
01.06.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Kabati Youth FC
1
2
L
27.05.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
23.05.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
MCF
0
0
D
09.05.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Vihiga United FC
0
1
L
03.05.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Equity Bank
0
1
L
26.04.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Soy United
1
2
L
18.04.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Gucha Stars
2
0
W
12.04.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
03.04.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
3K
0
3
L
28.03.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
MOFA
1
1
D
22.03.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
14.03.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Naivas
1
3
L
07.03.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Mwatate United
1
0
W
01.03.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Nzoia Sugar
0
0
D
21.02.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Fortune Sacco
3
2
W
15.02.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Migori Youth
0
1
L
31.01.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Naivas
0
0
D
25.01.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
3K
1
1
D
H2H: Mombasa Elite vs Nairobi City Stars
17.05.26
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Nairobi City Stars
2
1
W
02.12.25
H2H
Nairobi City Stars
Mombasa Elite
1
0
L
Last matches: Mombasa Elite
07.06.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
27.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
3K
0
0
D
03.05.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Migori Youth
0
0
D
19.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Soy United
1
0
W
03.04.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
29.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
MCF
3
1
W
15.03.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kabati Youth FC
2
0
W
27.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
MOFA
1
0
W
15.02.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kisumu All Stars
4
0
W
18.01.26
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Kibera Black Stars
2
0
W
17.12.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Mwatate United
3
0
W
07.12.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Talanta
2
1
W
22.11.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Equity Bank
2
0
W
10.11.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Darajani Gogo
2
1
W
29.10.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Naivas
1
0
W
11.10.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
05.10.25
Sup
Mombasa Elite
Fortune Sacco
2
1
W
H2H at home: Mombasa Elite
17.05.26
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Nairobi City Stars
2
1
W
Last matches: Nairobi City Stars
07.06.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Talanta
1
5
L
27.05.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
03.05.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Equity Bank
0
1
L
26.04.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Soy United
1
2
L
12.04.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Kisumu All Stars
0
1
L
22.03.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
14.03.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Naivas
1
3
L
01.03.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Nzoia Sugar
0
0
D
15.02.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Migori Youth
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
3K
1
1
D
10.01.26
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Gucha Stars
2
2
D
07.12.25
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
MCF
0
0
D
22.11.25
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Mwatate United
2
0
W
09.11.25
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Fortune Sacco
1
1
D
30.10.25
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Darajani Gogo
0
1
L
12.10.25
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
28.09.25
Sup
Nairobi City Stars
MOFA
0
1
L
H2H away: Nairobi City Stars
17.05.26
H2H
Mombasa Elite
Nairobi City Stars
2
1
L

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation