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NORWAY › ELITESERIEN
26.04.2026 12:30
Aker Stadion
Referee: Christian Moen, Norway
Molde
Match Timeline
Valerenga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
21'
F. Gulbrandsen · Assist: E. Hestad
Molde
🟨
38'
Fredrik Gulbrandsen
Molde
⚽
45'
L. Haren · Assist: M. Grundetjern
Valerenga
🔄
46'
E. Sorensen ↔ P. Strand
Valerenga
🟨
48'
Hakon Sjatil
Valerenga
⚽
51'
E. Breivik · Assist: S. Kabini
Molde
⚽
55'
F. Gulbrandsen · Assist: S. Granaas
Molde
⚽
57'
E. Hestad
Molde
🔄
63'
F. Gulbrandsen ↔ J. Abdullai
Molde
🔄
63'
M. Daehli ↔ J. Christensen
Molde
🔄
69'
M. Grundetjern ↔ G. Rajkovic
Valerenga
🔄
69'
H. Sjatil ↔ O. T. Holm
Valerenga
🔄
80'
E. Hestad ↔ V. Bender
Molde
⚽
86'
S. Granaas · Assist: J. Abdullai
Molde
🔄
88'
L. Haren ↔ V. Hedenstad
Valerenga
🔄
89'
S. Granaas ↔ T. Kone-Doherty
Molde
🔄
89'
E. Breivik ↔ O. Spiten-Nysaeter
Molde
🔄
89'
I. Nasberg ↔ K. Tshiembe
Valerenga

Molde vs Valerenga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 76.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
76.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.1%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Molde Win 61.2%
Draw 9.9%
Valerenga Win 28.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Molde1.4
Valerenga1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Molde Molde
WWDLW
17 GF / 13 GA
Valerenga Valerenga
WLDWL
23 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.55
Average Goals Scored
1.92
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
7
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
5
4.4
Shots on Goal
4.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Molde Molde 11 matches
Valerenga Valerenga 12 matches
Molde Statistic Valerenga
4 Wins 7
4 Draws 2
3 Losses 3
17 Goals For 23
13 Goals Against 14
1.55 Avg Goals Scored 1.92
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
7 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 8
5 Over 2.5 5
4 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 2
4.4 Shots On Goal 4.2
12.4 Total Shots 14.6
5.6 Corners 7.6
61.4% Ball Possession 44.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Valerenga's more proactive style and Molde's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Molde appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Valerenga. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Valerenga. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Molde Analysis

Placed 4 with 7 points from 5 outings, Molde continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 3:4 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Breivik (5 goals), Eirik Hestad (1 goals), J. Abdullai (1 goals), with creative support from C. Zady (1 assists), H. Stenevik (1 assists), M. Kikkenborg (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with D. Daga, F. Dahl, O. Spiten-Nysaeter unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Valerenga Analysis

Valerenga are currently 6 in the standings with 7 points from 5 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, while the 3:0 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on C. Lange (2 goals), I. Nasberg (1 goals), M. Grundetjern (1 goals), with creative support from K. Finnsson (1 assists), M. Westergaard (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with M. Ofkir unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Molde won 9 times, Valerenga won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 35:17 from Molde's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.1%)
Predicted formations: Molde 4-4-2 / Valerenga 4-4-2
Missing players: Molde 6, Valerenga 1
H2H summary: Molde wins 9, draws 2, Valerenga wins 2

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 17 2 3 56:20 36 53
W W W D W
2 22 17 2 3 56:20 36 53
W L W W W
3 22 11 6 5 41:30 11 39
D W L L D
4
Molde Home
22 11 4 7 46:34 12 37
D L W W W
5 22 10 4 8 40:31 9 34
D W W W L
6 22 10 3 9 30:31 -1 33
D L W W L
7 22 9 2 11 39:34 5 29
L W L L D
8 22 8 5 9 26:33 -7 29
D D D L W
9 22 7 7 8 28:31 -3 28
W L D D D
10 22 8 4 10 27:36 -9 28
W W W L L
11 22 7 5 10 33:46 -13 26
W L L L D
12 22 6 6 10 22:28 -6 24
D W L D D
13 22 6 5 11 35:45 -10 23
L D L D L
14 22 4 9 9 35:50 -15 21
L W L W L
15 22 5 4 13 22:43 -21 19
L L L W D
16 22 4 4 14 24:48 -24 16
L L W L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen