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13.08.2026 22:00
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Referee: A. Herrera
Mirassol
Match Timeline
LDU de Quito
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
15'
Eduardo · Assist: Edson Carioca
Mirassol
🟨
35'
Yerlin Quinonez
LDU de Quito
🟨
41'
Neto Moura
Mirassol
🟨
55'
Japa
Mirassol
🔄
59'
Japa ↔ Wallisson
Mirassol
🔄
71'
Alesson ↔ Fernandinho
Mirassol
🔄
78'
Eduardo ↔ Shaylon
Mirassol
🔄
78'
Neto Moura ↔ Denilson
Mirassol
🔄
78'
Edson Carioca ↔ Carlos Eduardo
Mirassol
⚽
82'
M. Estrada · Assist: J. Corozo
LDU de Quito
🔄
84'
S. Gonzalez Baquero ↔ A. Alvarado
LDU de Quito
🔄
84'
M. Estrada ↔ Deyverson
LDU de Quito
🔄
90+2'
F. Cornejo ↔ J. Rodriguez
LDU de Quito

Mirassol vs LDU de Quito Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 34.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
34.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Mirassol Win 67.4%
Draw 8.5%
LDU de Quito Win 24%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mirassol1.03
LDU de Quito1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mirassol Mirassol
WWDLW
31 GF / 34 GA
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito
WLDWL
36 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.15
Average Goals Scored
1.09
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
0.85
15
BTTS Yes
11
13
Over 2.5
8
4.22
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mirassol Mirassol 27 matches
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito 33 matches
Mirassol Statistic LDU de Quito
10 Wins 15
5 Draws 7
12 Losses 11
31 Goals For 36
34 Goals Against 28
1.15 Avg Goals Scored 1.09
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 0.85
15 BTTS Yes 11
18 Over 1.5 20
13 Over 2.5 8
6 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 12
8 Failed To Score 13
4.22 Shots On Goal 3.5
12.74 Total Shots 13.97
5.15 Corners 5.17
50.7% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Mirassol hold an advantage after winning the first leg 2-0, so LDU de Quito now have a 2-goal deficit to overturn. In the previous meeting, Mirassol had more of the ball in the first leg (52% possession compared to 48%). Mirassol were also more accurate in attack, recording 8 shots on target to 2. Mirassol also attempted more passes (394 to 365) and completed 319. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring LDU de Quito. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mirassol expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and LDU de Quito in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward LDU de Quito having the stronger overall control.

Mirassol Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Mirassol arrive from a league campaign that has them 2 with 12 points after 6 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 defeats with goals at 7:4 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Alesson (1 goals), Eduardo (1 goals), Joao Victor (1 goals), with creative support from Alesson (3 assists), Reinaldo (1 assists), Carlos Eduardo (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

LDU de Quito Analysis

LDU de Quito enter this tie with a season profile built on 12 points from 6 matches, placing them 1 in their league. Their record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 defeats with goals at 8:5 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Deyverson (2 goals), Y. Quinonez (2 goals), F. Cornejo (1 goals), with creative support from J. Corozo (2 assists), J. Pretell (1 assists), Jeison Medina (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.5%)
Predicted formations: Mirassol 4-2-3-1 / LDU de Quito 3-5-2

Standings

Group G
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 0 2 8:5 3 12
W W L L W
2 6 4 0 2 7:4 3 12
L W W W L
3 6 3 0 3 3:7 -4 9
W L L W W
4 6 1 0 5 7:9 -2 3
L L W L L
Copa Sudamericana 1/16-finals