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BRAZIL › SERIE A
19.09.2026 20:00
José Maria de Campos Maia
Referee: Felipe Fernandes de Lima, Brazil
Mirassol
Match Timeline
Botafogo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
16'
Eduardo · Assist: Igor Formiga
Mirassol
🟨
35'
Huguinho
Botafogo
⚽
45+2'
Eduardo
Mirassol
🔄
46'
Huguinho ↔ Júnior Santos
Botafogo
🔄
46'
Danilo Pereira ↔ Hakim Ziyech
Botafogo
🔄
46'
Álvaro Montoro ↔ Edenilson
Botafogo
🔄
61'
Arthur Cabral ↔ Lucas Villalba
Botafogo
🔄
67'
Eduardo ↔ Shaylon
Mirassol
🔄
76'
Denilson ↔ Wallisson Luiz
Mirassol
🔄
76'
Edson Carioca ↔ Carlos Eduardo
Mirassol
🔄
77'
Cristian Medina ↔ Kauan Toledo
Botafogo
🔄
89'
Bruno Santos ↔ Zé Roberto
Mirassol
🔄
90'
Igor Formiga ↔ Daniel Borges
Mirassol

Mirassol vs Botafogo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.7%
Odds 2.06
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds 1.74
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.7%
2.06 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
1.74 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.16 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.40 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Mirassol Win 52.7%
Draw 14.1%
Botafogo Win 33.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mirassol1.26
Botafogo1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mirassol Mirassol
WWDLW
39 GF / 47 GA
Botafogo Botafogo
WLDWL
44 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.34
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
21
BTTS Yes
20
16
Over 2.5
18
4.23
Shots on Goal
5.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mirassol Mirassol 35 matches
Botafogo Botafogo 31 matches
Mirassol Statistic Botafogo
11 Wins 10
10 Draws 9
14 Losses 12
39 Goals For 44
47 Goals Against 46
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.34 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
21 BTTS Yes 20
25 Over 1.5 24
16 Over 2.5 18
8 Over 3.5 10
5 Clean Sheets 5
10 Failed To Score 8
4.23 Shots On Goal 5.1
13.11 Total Shots 14.1
5.31 Corners 4.32
50.2% Ball Possession 48.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Botafogo arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mirassol expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Botafogo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Botafogo having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Botafogo. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Mirassol Analysis

With 28 points from 26 games and a place of 16, Mirassol still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 7 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 29:40 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Igor Formiga (4 goals), Eduardo (3 goals), João Victor (2 goals), with creative support from Igor Formiga (4 assists), Reinaldo (4 assists), Alesson (4 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Botafogo Analysis

With 31 points from 25 games and a place of 14, Botafogo still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 37:40, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Danilo Santos (7 goals), Arthur Cabral (7 goals), Edenílson (4 goals), with creative support from Alex Telles (3 assists), Álvaro Montoro (3 assists), Danilo Santos (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Mirassol won 0 times, Botafogo won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:6 from Mirassol's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.9%)
Predicted formations: Mirassol 4-1-4-1 / Botafogo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Mirassol 5, Botafogo 5
H2H summary: Mirassol wins 0, draws 2, Botafogo wins 1

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 28 18 6 4 55:23 32 60
W W W W W
2 28 16 9 3 47:21 26 57
D W D D W
3 28 14 7 7 43:32 11 49
W D L D W
4 28 13 9 6 44:36 8 48
W L W D W
5 28 12 10 6 43:35 8 46
L W W W W
6 28 13 6 9 42:40 2 45
W L W L W
7 28 12 7 9 37:32 5 43
W D W L W
8 28 11 8 9 43:41 2 41
W W W W W
9 28 10 8 10 37:43 -6 38
L D L W W
10 29 10 7 12 34:33 1 37
D L L D L
11 28 10 6 12 33:32 1 36
L W L W W
12 29 10 6 13 32:42 -10 36
W L D W L
13 28 9 8 11 41:45 -4 35
L W D D L
14 29 8 9 12 34:43 -9 33
D W D W L
15 29 8 8 13 30:34 -4 32
L L L L L
16 27 8 7 12 34:41 -7 31
W W L W L
17 29 7 10 12 32:37 -5 31
W L W L L
18 29 7 9 13 31:39 -8 30
D D L L L
19 29 5 9 15 33:48 -15 24
D L L L L
20 28 3 9 16 29:57 -28 18
L D L W L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B