🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
Allianz Field
Referee: Joshua Encarnacion, USA
Minnesota United FC
Match Timeline
Atlanta United FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
J. Alonso
Atlanta United FC
🟨
29'
M. Boxall
Minnesota United FC
🟨
32'
J. Pereyra
Minnesota United FC
37'
T. Jacob
Atlanta United FC
🟨
46'
A. Gill
Atlanta United FC
🟨
56'
C. Sanchez
Atlanta United FC
58'
A. Markanich
Minnesota United FC
🔄
64'
F. Picault ↔ L. Brennan
Atlanta United FC
🔄
64'
C. Sanchez ↔ S. Alzate
Atlanta United FC
🔄
68'
B. Hlongwane ↔ M. Dieng
Minnesota United FC
🔄
68'
M. Caldeira ↔ A. Jackson
Minnesota United FC
🟨
75'
T. Chancalay
Minnesota United FC
78'
T. Muyumba · Assist: A. Miranchuk
Atlanta United FC
🔄
79'
A. Miranchuk ↔ M. Edwards
Atlanta United FC
🔄
80'
T. Chancalay ↔ K. Yeboah
Minnesota United FC
🔄
80'
W. Trapp ↔ M. Gonzalez
Minnesota United FC
🔄
84'
A. Gill ↔ E. Mihaj
Atlanta United FC
🔄
84'
T. Muyumba ↔ P. Diaz
Atlanta United FC
🟨
87'
O. Gene
Minnesota United FC

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.3%
Odds 1.68
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.59
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.3%
1.68
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.59
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.23
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
6.75
Probability Distribution
Minnesota United FC Win 69.3%
Draw 16.9%
Atlanta United FC Win 13.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Minnesota United FC1.33
Atlanta United FC1.26
Recent Form (Last 5)
Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC
WWDLW
25 GF / 28 GA
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
WLDWL
29 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.26
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1.61
12
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
13
4.68
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 22 matches
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 23 matches
Minnesota United FC Statistic Atlanta United FC
7 Wins 6
8 Draws 5
7 Losses 12
25 Goals For 29
28 Goals Against 37
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1.61
12 BTTS Yes 14
15 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 13
5 Over 3.5 9
7 Clean Sheets 3
6 Failed To Score 8
4.68 Shots On Goal 4
13.37 Total Shots 12.16
5.68 Corners 4.53
46.2% Ball Possession 48.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atlanta United FC. Minnesota United FC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 10 with 24 points compared to Atlanta United FC in 15 on 12, which underlines the gap in season consistency. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Minnesota United FC expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Atlanta United FC in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atlanta United FC having the stronger overall control. Atlanta United FC arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Minnesota United FC Analysis

From their first 18 matches, Minnesota United FC have collected 24 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Their overall return of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 20:25 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Kelvin Yeboah (6 goals), Anthony Markanich (4 goals), Joaquín Pereyra (1 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Pereyra (4 assists), Tomás Chancalay (3 assists), James Rodríguez (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atlanta United FC Analysis

With 12 points from 18 games and a place of 15, Atlanta United FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 19:33 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on Saba Lobzhanidze (2 goals), Ajani Fortune (2 goals), Miguel Almirón (2 goals), with creative support from Aleksey Miranchuk (3 assists), Saba Lobzhanidze (1 assists), Elías Báez (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Minnesota United FC won 2 times, Atlanta United FC won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:15 from Minnesota United FC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (86.1%)
Predicted formations: Minnesota United FC 3-4-3 / Atlanta United FC 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Minnesota United FC 4, Atlanta United FC 3
H2H summary: Minnesota United FC wins 2, draws 0, Atlanta United FC wins 4
Stats
Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
0
Blocked Shots
3
6 Corner Kicks 4
13 Fouls 13
4 Offsides 2
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Goal 3
9 Shots off Goal 4
0 Blocked Shots 3
11 Shots insidebox 6
2 Shots outsidebox 4
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
472 Total passes 421
375 Passes accurate 327
2.00 expected_goals 0.93
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Minnesota United FC
Formation
Atlanta United FC
Drake Callender
Drake Callender
Jefferson Díaz
Jefferson Díaz
Michael Boxall
Michael Boxall
Morris Duggan
Morris Duggan
Bongokuhle Hlongwane
Bongokuhle Hlongwane
Owen Gene
Owen Gene
Wil Trapp
Wil Trapp
Anthony Markanich
Anthony Markanich
Joaquín Pereyra
Joaquín Pereyra
Marcus Caldeira
Marcus Caldeira
Tomás Chancalay
Tomás Chancalay
Lucas Hoyos
Lucas Hoyos
Tomás Jacob
Tomás Jacob
Stian Gregersen
Stian Gregersen
Junior Alonso
Junior Alonso
Elías Báez
Elías Báez
Cooper Sanchez
Cooper Sanchez
Adrian Gill
Adrian Gill
Tristan Muyumba
Tristan Muyumba
Aleksey Miranchuk
🎯
Aleksey Miranchuk
Miguel Almirón
Miguel Almirón
Fafà Picault
Fafà Picault
Minnesota United FC 3-4-3
Starting XI
12
Drake Callender
G
28
Jefferson Díaz
D
15
Michael Boxall
🟨 29'
D
23
Morris Duggan
D
21
Bongokuhle Hlongwane
↓ 68'
M
30
Owen Gene
🟨 87'
M
20
Wil Trapp
↓ 80'
M
13
Anthony Markanich
⚽ 58'
M
26
Joaquín Pereyra
🟨 32'
F
22
Marcus Caldeira
↓ 68'
F
8
Tomás Chancalay
↓ 80' 🟨 75'
F
Substitutes
16
Aziel Jackson
↑ 68'
M
29
Mamadou Dieng
↑ 68'
F
18
Mauricio González
↑ 80'
F
9
Kelvin Yeboah
↑ 80'
F
1
Alec Smir
G
3
Kyle Duncan
D
2
Devin Padelford
D
24
Julian Gressel
M
67
Carlos Harvey
M
Atlanta United FC 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Lucas Hoyos
G
55
Tomás Jacob
⚽ 37'
D
5
Stian Gregersen
D
6
Junior Alonso
🟨 18'
D
3
Elías Báez
D
48
Cooper Sanchez
↓ 64' 🟨 56'
M
16
Adrian Gill
↓ 84' 🟨 46'
M
8
Tristan Muyumba
⚽ 78' ↓ 84'
M
59
Aleksey Miranchuk
🎯 78' ↓ 79'
F
10
Miguel Almirón
F
22
Fafà Picault
↓ 64'
F
Substitutes
20
Luke Brennan
↑ 64'
M
7
Steven Alzate
↑ 64'
M
47
Matthew Edwards
↑ 79'
D
4
Enea Mihaj
↑ 84'
D
27
Paulo Díaz
↑ 84'
D
42
Jayden Hibbert
G
2
Ronald Hernández
D
30
Cayman Togashi
F
19
Sergio Santos
F
Last matches: Minnesota United FC
16.08.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Real Salt Lake
1
1
D
02.08.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
San Diego
1
1
D
26.07.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
0
D
23.07.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Sporting Kansas City
1
2
L
23.05.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Real Salt Lake
1
1
D
16.05.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
New England Revolution
1
2
L
14.05.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Colorado Rapids
0
1
L
10.05.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Austin
2
2
D
02.05.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Columbus Crew
3
2
W
25.04.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles FC
0
1
L
23.04.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
FC Dallas
1
0
W
19.04.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Portland Timbers
2
0
W
12.04.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
San Diego
2
1
W
05.04.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
2
1
W
22.03.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Seattle Sounders
0
0
D
15.03.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
6
L
08.03.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Nashville SC
1
3
L
28.02.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
FC Cincinnati
1
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Austin
2
2
D
14.02.26
Fri
Minnesota United FC
Charlotte
1
2
L
Last matches: Atlanta United FC
15.08.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
New York Red Bulls
2
1
W
01.08.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union
2
3
L
25.07.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
New England Revolution
1
4
L
23.07.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Charlotte
2
2
D
18.07.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
1
L
24.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew
0
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
09.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
2
L
02.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
CF Montreal
3
1
W
25.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
2
1
W
22.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
New England Revolution
1
2
L
18.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
2
L
12.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
04.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew
1
3
L
21.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
DC United
0
0
D
14.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union
3
1
W
08.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Real Salt Lake
2
3
L
01.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
21.02.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
FC Cincinnati
0
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
FC Dallas
0
0
D
H2H: Minnesota United FC vs Atlanta United FC
04.05.24
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Minnesota United FC
1
2
W
28.08.19
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Minnesota United FC
2
1
L
29.05.19
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Minnesota United FC
3
0
L
01.04.18
H2H
Minnesota United FC
Atlanta United FC
0
1
L
03.10.17
H2H
Atlanta United FC
Minnesota United FC
2
3
W
12.03.17
H2H
Minnesota United FC
Atlanta United FC
1
6
L
Last matches: Minnesota United FC
02.08.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
San Diego
1
1
D
26.07.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
0
D
23.05.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Real Salt Lake
1
1
D
14.05.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Colorado Rapids
0
1
L
10.05.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Austin
2
2
D
25.04.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles FC
0
1
L
19.04.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Portland Timbers
2
0
W
22.03.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
Seattle Sounders
0
0
D
28.02.26
Maj
Minnesota United FC
FC Cincinnati
1
0
W
H2H at home: Minnesota United FC
01.04.18
H2H
Minnesota United FC
Atlanta United FC
0
1
L
12.03.17
H2H
Minnesota United FC
Atlanta United FC
1
6
L
Last matches: Atlanta United FC
01.08.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia Union
2
3
L
25.07.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
New England Revolution
1
4
L
23.07.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Charlotte
2
2
D
18.07.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Nashville SC
0
1
L
24.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew
0
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Orlando City SC
1
1
D
25.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
2
1
W
12.04.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
01.03.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
San Jose Earthquakes
0
2
L
21.02.26
Maj
Atlanta United FC
FC Cincinnati
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
Atlanta United FC
Houston Dynamo
1
1
D
H2H away: Atlanta United FC
01.04.18
H2H
Minnesota United FC
Atlanta United FC
0
1
W
12.03.17
H2H
Minnesota United FC
Atlanta United FC
1
6
W
Showing odds from: Bet365
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.91
Draw 4.22
Home 1.68
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.98
Draw 2.61
Home 2.19
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.18
Over 2.25 1.48
Over 2.5 1.59
Over 2.75 1.73
Over 3.0 1.94
Over 3.25 2.21
Over 3.5 2.47
Over 4.5 4.37
Under 1.5 5.13
Under 2.25 2.78
Under 2.5 2.46
Under 2.75 2.20
Under 3.0 1.94
Under 3.25 1.72
Under 3.5 1.58
Under 4.5 1.23
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 5.00
Draw 4.20
Home 1.62
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 2.50
Home 2.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 2.75
Home 1.95
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.5 1.17
Over 2.5 1.57
Over 3.5 2.38
Over 4.5 4.33
Over 5.5 9.00
Over 6.5 17.00
Over 7.5 34.00
Under 0.5 17.00
Under 1.5 5.00
Under 2.5 2.35
Under 3.5 1.53
Under 4.5 1.20
Under 5.5 1.07
Under 6.5 1.02
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.70
Draw 4.00
Home 1.65
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.50
Draw 2.38
Home 2.07
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.20
Draw 2.90
Home 1.95
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.5 1.16
Over 2.25 1.41
Over 2.5 1.58
Over 2.75 1.72
Over 3.0 1.94
Over 3.25 2.20
Over 3.5 2.48
Over 3.75 2.95
Over 4.5 4.40
Over 5.5 8.50
Under 0.5 13.00
Under 1.5 4.80
Under 2.25 2.75
Under 2.5 2.33
Under 2.75 2.06
Under 3.0 1.81
Under 3.25 1.63
Under 3.5 1.52
Under 3.75 1.37
Under 4.5 1.20
Under 5.5 1.05

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 4 3 40:17 23 37
W D D L W
2 19 11 2 6 28:24 4 35
W W W W D
3 20 10 4 6 35:20 15 34
L D W W W
4 19 10 3 6 38:27 11 33
L L D L W
5 19 8 6 5 34:26 8 30
W D L D W
6 19 8 5 6 27:25 2 29
W D W W W
7 18 8 4 6 30:26 4 28
D D L L D
8 19 8 1 10 29:25 4 25
W W L W L
9 19 6 7 6 21:26 -5 25
D D D L D
10 19 7 3 9 34:35 -1 24
L W W D W
11 18 7 3 8 20:24 -4 24
L L L L L
12 19 6 6 7 33:29 4 24
W D W L L
13 20 5 7 8 24:30 -6 22
L D D L L
14 19 4 5 10 23:38 -15 17
L L L W L
15 19 4 2 13 18:48 -30 14
L L L W L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)

Missing Players

Minnesota United FC 4 missing
-
N. Triantis
Missing Fixture Lower-Body Injury
OUT
-
A. Jackson
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
N. Romero
Missing Fixture Lower-Body Injury
OUT
-
P. Stroud
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
Atlanta United FC 3 missing
-
A. Fortune
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
W. Reilly
Questionable Ankle Injury
OUT
-
M. Amaro
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT