Middlesbrough vs Derby Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
All Markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|
Probability Distribution
Middlesbrough Win 0%
Draw 0%
Derby Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Middlesbrough1.71
Derby1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
Middlesbrough
WWDLW
22 GF / 19 GA
Derby
WLDWL
16 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.83
Average Goals Scored
1.07
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
10
BTTS Yes
9
8
Over 2.5
8
5.22
Shots on Goal
3.67
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Middlesbrough
12 matches
Derby
15 matches
| Middlesbrough | Statistic | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Wins | 3 |
| 5 | Draws | 4 |
| 2 | Losses | 8 |
| 22 | Goals For | 16 |
| 19 | Goals Against | 23 |
| 1.83 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.07 |
| 1.58 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.53 |
| 10 | BTTS Yes | 9 |
| 10 | Over 1.5 | 13 |
| 8 | Over 2.5 | 8 |
| 6 | Over 3.5 | 3 |
| 2 | Clean Sheets | 2 |
| 0 | Failed To Score | 4 |
| 5.22 | Shots On Goal | 3.67 |
| 17.11 | Total Shots | 12 |
| 5.56 | Corners | 5.78 |
| 59.2% | Ball Possession | 48.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
H2H Analysis
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Middlesbrough won 6 times, Derby won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:16 from Middlesbrough's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.
Predicted formations: Middlesbrough 4-2-3-1 / Derby 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Middlesbrough wins 6, draws 4, Derby wins 5
Standings
Championship
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15:7 | 8 | 20 |
W
W
W
L
D
|
|
| 2 |
Middlesbrough
Home
|
9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17:12 | 5 | 18 |
W
D
D
W
W
|
| 3 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23:12 | 11 | 16 |
D
D
W
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15:13 | 2 | 16 |
W
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 5 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15:11 | 4 | 14 |
L
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 6 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11:8 | 3 | 14 |
D
D
D
D
L
|
|
| 7 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 13:11 | 2 | 14 |
W
D
W
L
D
|
|
| 8 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16:15 | 1 | 14 |
W
D
D
L
W
|
|
| 9 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10:9 | 1 | 14 |
L
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12:13 | -1 | 14 |
D
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 20:10 | 10 | 13 |
W
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 12 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 8:11 | -3 | 13 |
D
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 13 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 14:13 | 1 | 12 |
W
D
W
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12:11 | 1 | 12 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 15 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10:13 | -3 | 11 |
D
W
L
D
D
|
|
| 16 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7:11 | -4 | 11 |
L
L
W
W
D
|
|
| 17 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 12:17 | -5 | 10 |
L
W
W
L
L
|
|
| 18 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 17:19 | -2 | 9 |
L
L
L
W
W
|
|
| 19 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9:11 | -2 | 8 |
L
D
D
W
L
|
|
| 20 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7:14 | -7 | 8 |
L
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 21 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11:14 | -3 | 7 |
L
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 22 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13:17 | -4 | 7 |
W
D
L
D
L
|
|
| 23 |
Derby
Away
|
9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8:15 | -7 | 6 |
D
D
L
L
L
|
| 24 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 8:16 | -8 | 4 |
L
D
L
L
W
|
Promotion - Premier League
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs: Quarter-finals)
Relegation - League One