WORLD WORLD CUP
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Banorte
Referee: Slavko Vinčić, Slovenia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.9%
Odds 2.32
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.98
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.9%
2.32
BTTS No
50.8%
1.53
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.98
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.4%
1.89
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75
Correct Score 3-0
-
18.00
Probability Distribution
Mexico Win 81.9%
Draw 4.7%
Ecuador Win 13.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mexico1.43
Ecuador0.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mexico Mexico
WWDLW
21 GF / 2 GA
Ecuador Ecuador
WLDWL
9 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.91
Average Goals Scored
1.29
0.18
Average Goals Conceded
0.71
2
BTTS Yes
4
3
Over 2.5
3
4.64
Shots on Goal
5.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mexico Mexico 11 matches
Ecuador Ecuador 7 matches
Mexico Statistic Ecuador
9 Wins 3
2 Draws 3
0 Losses 1
21 Goals For 9
2 Goals Against 5
1.91 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
0.18 Avg Goals Conceded 0.71
2 BTTS Yes 4
6 Over 1.5 5
3 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 0
9 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 2
4.64 Shots On Goal 5.14
12.18 Total Shots 14.29
4.36 Corners 5.14
54.6% Ball Possession 56%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Mexico won 1 times, Ecuador won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:8 from Mexico's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.3%)
Predicted formations: Mexico 4-3-3 / Ecuador 4-4-2
H2H summary: Mexico wins 1, draws 3, Ecuador wins 2

Lineups

Mexico
Formation
Ecuador
Raúl Rangel
Raúl Rangel
Jorge Sánchez
Jorge Sánchez
César Montes
César Montes
Johan Vásquez
Johan Vásquez
Jesús Gallardo
Jesús Gallardo
Gilberto Mora
Gilberto Mora
Erik Lira
Erik Lira
Luis Romo
Luis Romo
Roberto Alvarado
Roberto Alvarado
Raúl Jiménez
Raúl Jiménez
Julián Quiñones
Julián Quiñones
Hernán Galíndez
Hernán Galíndez
Alan Franco
Alan Franco
Joel Ordóñez
Joel Ordóñez
Willian Pacho
Willian Pacho
Piero Hincapié
Piero Hincapié
John Yeboah
John Yeboah
Moisés Caicedo
Moisés Caicedo
Pedro Vite
Pedro Vite
Nilson Angulo
Nilson Angulo
Gonzalo Plata
Gonzalo Plata
Enner Valencia
Enner Valencia
Mexico 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
Raúl Rangel
G
2
Jorge Sánchez
D
3
César Montes
D
5
Johan Vásquez
D
23
Jesús Gallardo
D
19
Gilberto Mora
M
6
Erik Lira
M
7
Luis Romo
M
25
Roberto Alvarado
F
9
Raúl Jiménez
F
16
Julián Quiñones
F
Substitutes
12
Carlos Acevedo
G
13
Guillermo Ochoa
G
15
Israel Reyes
D
20
Mateo Chávez
D
4
Edson Álvarez
M
24
Luis Chávez
M
8
Álvaro Fidalgo
M
17
Orbelín Pineda
M
18
Obed Vargas
M
26
Brian Gutiérrez
M
21
César Huerta
M
10
Alexis Vega
F
14
Armando González
F
22
Guillermo Martínez
F
11
Santiago Giménez
F
Ecuador 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
Hernán Galíndez
G
21
Alan Franco
D
4
Joel Ordóñez
D
6
Willian Pacho
D
3
Piero Hincapié
D
9
John Yeboah
M
23
Moisés Caicedo
M
15
Pedro Vite
M
20
Nilson Angulo
M
19
Gonzalo Plata
F
13
Enner Valencia
F
Substitutes
12
Moisés Ramírez
G
22
Gonzalo Valle
G
25
Jackson Porozo
D
2
Félix Torres
D
26
Yaimar Medina
D
5
Jordy Alcivar
M
10
Kendry Páez
M
18
Denil Castillo
M
17
Ángelo Preciado
D
7
Pervis Estupiñán
D
8
Anthony Valencia
F
14
Alan Minda
F
16
Jordy Caicedo
F
11
Kevin Rodriguez
F
24
Jeremy Arevalo
F
Last matches: Mexico
25.06.26
Wor
Mexico
Czechia
3
0
W
19.06.26
Wor
Mexico
South Korea
1
0
W
11.06.26
Wor
Mexico
South Africa
2
0
W
05.06.26
Fri
Mexico
Serbia
5
1
W
31.05.26
Fri
Mexico
Australia
1
0
W
23.05.26
Fri
Mexico
Ghana
2
0
W
01.04.26
Fri
Mexico
Belgium
1
1
D
29.03.26
Fri
Mexico
Portugal
0
0
D
26.02.26
Fri
Mexico
Iceland
4
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
Mexico
Bolivia
1
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
Mexico
Panama
1
0
W
Last matches: Ecuador
25.06.26
Wor
Ecuador
Germany
2
1
W
21.06.26
Wor
Ecuador
Curaçao
0
0
D
14.06.26
Wor
Ecuador
Ivory Coast
0
1
L
07.06.26
Fri
Ecuador
Guatemala
3
0
W
31.05.26
Fri
Ecuador
Saudi Arabia
2
1
W
31.03.26
Fri
Ecuador
Netherlands
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Ecuador
Morocco
1
1
D
H2H: Mexico vs Ecuador
15.10.25
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
1
1
D
01.07.24
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
0
0
D
05.06.22
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
0
0
D
28.10.21
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
2
3
L
09.06.19
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
3
2
W
19.06.15
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
1
2
L
Last matches: Mexico
19.06.26
Wor
Mexico
South Korea
1
0
W
11.06.26
Wor
Mexico
South Africa
2
0
W
05.06.26
Fri
Mexico
Serbia
5
1
W
31.05.26
Fri
Mexico
Australia
1
0
W
23.05.26
Fri
Mexico
Ghana
2
0
W
01.04.26
Fri
Mexico
Belgium
1
1
D
29.03.26
Fri
Mexico
Portugal
0
0
D
26.02.26
Fri
Mexico
Iceland
4
0
W
H2H at home: Mexico
15.10.25
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
1
1
D
01.07.24
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
0
0
D
05.06.22
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
0
0
D
28.10.21
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
2
3
L
09.06.19
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
3
2
W
19.06.15
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
1
2
L
Last matches: Ecuador
14.06.26
Wor
Ecuador
Ivory Coast
0
1
L
31.03.26
Fri
Ecuador
Netherlands
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Ecuador
Morocco
1
1
D
H2H away: Ecuador
15.10.25
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
1
1
D
01.07.24
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
0
0
D
05.06.22
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
0
0
D
28.10.21
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
2
3
W
09.06.19
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
3
2
L
19.06.15
H2H
Mexico
Ecuador
1
2
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 4.01
Draw 2.93
Home 2.32
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 5.10
Draw 1.89
Home 3.21
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.75 1.17
Over 1.0 1.21
Over 1.25 1.41
Over 1.5 1.62
Over 1.75 1.83
Over 2.0 2.19
Over 2.25 2.59
Over 2.5 2.98
Over 2.75 3.70
Over 3.0 4.89
Under 0.75 5.32
Under 1.0 4.62
Under 1.25 3.01
Under 1.5 2.40
Under 1.75 2.09
Under 2.0 1.74
Under 2.25 1.53
Under 2.5 1.41
Under 2.75 1.29
Under 3.0 1.19
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.80
Draw 2.90
Home 2.20
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.75
Draw 1.83
Home 3.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.05
Home 2.62
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.14
Over 1.5 1.62
Over 2.5 3.00
Over 3.5 6.00
Over 4.5 15.00
Over 5.5 29.00
Over 6.5 51.00
Under 0.5 5.50
Under 1.5 2.30
Under 2.5 1.40
Under 3.5 1.12
Under 4.5 1.03
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.94
Draw 3.09
Home 2.28
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.87
Draw 1.86
Home 3.06
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.32
Draw 2.16
Home 2.66
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.09
Over 0.75 1.13
Over 1.0 1.16
Over 1.25 1.43
Over 1.5 1.65
Over 1.75 1.80
Over 2.0 2.14
Over 2.25 2.56
Over 2.5 2.95
Over 2.75 3.60
Over 3.0 5.10
Over 3.25 5.51
Over 3.5 5.95
Over 3.75 7.75
Over 4.0 11.70
Over 4.5 14.00
Over 5.5 28.00
Over 6.5 50.00
Under 0.5 5.75
Under 0.75 5.12
Under 1.0 4.45
Under 1.25 2.97
Under 1.5 2.32
Under 1.75 1.99
Under 2.0 1.69
Under 2.25 1.55
Under 2.5 1.42
Under 2.75 1.28
Under 3.0 1.16
Under 3.25 1.12
Under 3.5 1.11
Under 3.75 1.05
Under 4.0 1.00
Under 4.5 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.90
Draw 2.85
Home 2.25
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.60
Draw 1.87
Home 3.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 2.16
Home 2.65
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.12
Over 1.25 1.41
Over 1.5 1.60
Over 1.75 1.80
Over 2.0 2.17
Over 2.25 2.60
Over 2.5 2.95
Over 2.75 3.70
Over 3.0 4.40
Over 3.5 6.25
Over 4.5 14.00
Under 0.5 6.00
Under 1.25 2.90
Under 1.5 2.30
Under 1.75 2.00
Under 2.0 1.68
Under 2.25 1.50
Under 2.5 1.38
Under 2.75 1.28
Under 3.0 1.21
Under 3.5 1.11
Under 4.5 1.01

Standings

Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 3 3 0 0 6:0 6 9
W W W
2 3 1 1 1 2:3 -1 4
L W D L
3 3 1 0 2 2:3 -1 3
L L W
4 3 0 1 2 2:6 -4 1
L D L
Round of 32