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04.03.2026 20:00
Penalties 3-4
2 - 2
Orange Velodrome
Referee: J. Pignard
Marseille
Match Timeline
Toulouse
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
2'
M. Greenwood
Marseille
🟨
11'
Himad Abdelli
Marseille
⚽
13'
Y. Gboho
Toulouse
🟨
35'
Mason Greenwood
Marseille
🟨
37'
Emersonn
Toulouse
🔄
46'
H. Abdelli ↔ E. Nwaneri
Marseille
⚽
56'
I. Paixao · Assist: G. Kondogbia
Marseille
🔄
58'
A. Vermeeren ↔ B. Nadir
Marseille
⚽
60'
C. Cresswell · Assist: A. Donnum
Toulouse
🔄
65'
C. Cresswell ↔ W. Kamanzi
Toulouse
🔄
83'
Emersonn ↔ J. Russell-Rowe
Toulouse
🟨
90'
Cristian Cásseres Jr.
Toulouse
🔄
90'
I. Paixao ↔ H. J. Traore
Marseille

Marseille vs Toulouse Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
Probability Distribution
Marseille Win 0%
Draw 0%
Toulouse Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Marseille1.82
Toulouse1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Marseille Marseille
WWDLW
80 GF / 47 GA
Toulouse Toulouse
WLDWL
37 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
2.29
Average Goals Scored
1.37
1.34
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
16
BTTS Yes
12
26
Over 2.5
12
5.94
Shots on Goal
4.74

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Marseille Marseille 35 matches
Toulouse Toulouse 27 matches
Marseille Statistic Toulouse
19 Wins 10
4 Draws 8
12 Losses 9
80 Goals For 37
47 Goals Against 30
2.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.37
1.34 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
16 BTTS Yes 12
28 Over 1.5 17
26 Over 2.5 12
16 Over 3.5 6
10 Clean Sheets 9
9 Failed To Score 8
5.94 Shots On Goal 4.74
14.43 Total Shots 13.59
5.06 Corners 5.11
57.9% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Marseille won 11 times, Toulouse won 0 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 38:15 from Marseille's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.

Predicted formations: Marseille 4-2-3-1 / Toulouse 5-4-1
H2H summary: Marseille wins 11, draws 4, Toulouse wins 0