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FINLAND › VEIKKAUSLIIGA
10.10.2026 16:00

Mariehamn vs Ilves Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Mariehamn Win 55.2%
Draw 9.5%
Ilves Win 35.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mariehamn1
Ilves1.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WWDLW
25 GF / 53 GA
Ilves Ilves
WLDWL
63 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
0.86
Average Goals Scored
1.75
1.83
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
13
BTTS Yes
17
13
Over 2.5
19
1.48
Shots on Goal
2.34

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mariehamn Mariehamn 29 matches
Ilves Ilves 36 matches
Mariehamn Statistic Ilves
5 Wins 16
7 Draws 6
17 Losses 14
25 Goals For 63
53 Goals Against 44
0.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
1.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
13 BTTS Yes 17
25 Over 1.5 25
13 Over 2.5 19
6 Over 3.5 14
3 Clean Sheets 13
13 Failed To Score 7
1.48 Shots On Goal 2.34
4.72 Total Shots 5
2.32 Corners 1.69
24.7% Ball Possession 22.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ilves. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mariehamn expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Ilves in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ilves having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Mariehamn Analysis

Mariehamn sit 12 with 14 points after 22 league matches. The record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 17:43 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Arvid Bergvik (2 goals), A. Stroud (1 goals), A. Huttunen (1 goals), with creative support from A. Stroud (1 assists), Y. Amankwah (1 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ilves Analysis

From their first 22 matches, Ilves have collected 25 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 4 draws, and 11 losses, while the 34:37 goal ratio supports the view of good form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Hytönen (3 goals), E. Tamminen (2 goals), M. Stjopin (2 goals), with creative support from E. Tamminen (2 assists), M. Stjopin (1 assists), O. Multala (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.5%)
Predicted formations: Mariehamn 4-2-3-1 / Ilves 3-4-3

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
W D D L L
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W W L W D
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
D D W W L
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D W D D W
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
L L L D W
6 22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L L W L W
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
D L W W W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
L L D D D
9
Ilves Away
22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
W W W L L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
W D D D L
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
D D L L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
L W L W W
Play-offs
Relegation Play-offs