Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
60.9%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
67.1%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
66.7%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Under 9.5 Corners |
92%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 1-2 |
-
|
- |
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Mariehamn
15 matches
HJK Helsinki
16 matches
| Mariehamn | Statistic | HJK Helsinki |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wins | 7 |
| 6 | Draws | 4 |
| 8 | Losses | 5 |
| 11 | Goals For | 28 |
| 25 | Goals Against | 19 |
| 0.73 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.75 |
| 1.67 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.19 |
| 8 | BTTS Yes | 8 |
| 12 | Over 1.5 | 11 |
| 6 | Over 2.5 | 9 |
| 2 | Over 3.5 | 4 |
| 0 | Clean Sheets | 6 |
| 7 | Failed To Score | 2 |
| 1.82 | Shots On Goal | 2.08 |
| 4.64 | Total Shots | 5.67 |
| 2.45 | Corners | 1.92 |
| 24.7% | Ball Possession | 23.3% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by HJK Helsinki's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors HJK Helsinki. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mariehamn expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and HJK Helsinki in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward HJK Helsinki having the stronger overall control. Mariehamn have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. HJK Helsinki carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 18 points while Mariehamn sit 12 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.
Mariehamn sit 12 with 4 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats with a 5:17 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Dahlstrom (2 goals), A. Huttunen (1 goals), A. Larsson (1 goals), with creative support from Emmanuel Patut (1 assists), T. Koivisto (1 assists), Y. Amankwah (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.
HJK Helsinki arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 18 points after 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, while the 18:10 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Borchers (4 goals), T. Pukki (3 goals), A. Ring (2 goals), with creative support from T. Pukki (3 assists), D. Ezeh (2 assists), L. Lingman (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Mariehamn won 2 times, HJK Helsinki won 12 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:35 from Mariehamn's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 38:23 | 15 | 43 |
L
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 2 | 22 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 29:16 | 13 | 42 |
W
D
W
W
L
|
|
| 3 |
HJK Helsinki
Away
|
22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 36:27 | 9 | 37 |
W
D
D
W
W
|
| 4 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 36:29 | 7 | 36 |
D
D
W
D
D
|
|
| 5 | 22 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 25:25 | 0 | 34 |
W
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 6 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 29:22 | 7 | 33 |
L
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 7 | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 26:19 | 7 | 32 |
L
D
L
W
W
|
|
| 8 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 28:23 | 5 | 31 |
L
L
L
D
D
|
|
| 9 | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 34:37 | -3 | 25 |
D
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 10 | 22 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 25:33 | -8 | 19 |
W
W
D
D
D
|
|
| 11 | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 18:44 | -26 | 15 |
W
D
D
L
L
|
|
| 12 |
Mariehamn
Home
|
22 | 3 | 5 | 14 | 17:43 | -26 | 14 |
D
L
W
L
W
|