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FINLAND › VEIKKAUSLIIGA
23.06.2026 17:00
Wiklof Holding Arena
Referee: Amir Hajizadeh, Finland
Mariehamn
Match Timeline
HJK Helsinki
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
31'
T. Pukki · Assist: M. Borchers
HJK Helsinki
🔄
46'
N. Nurmi ↔ T. Koivisto
Mariehamn
🟨
56'
Luke Pearce
Mariehamn
⚽
64'
M. Borchers · Assist: T. Pukki
HJK Helsinki
🔄
66'
A. Ring ↔ L. Lappalainen
HJK Helsinki
⚽
66'
L. Lappalainen · Assist: L. Montano
HJK Helsinki
🔄
70'
L. Pearce ↔ N. Dosis
Mariehamn
🔄
70'
A. Larsson ↔ W. Nunez
Mariehamn
🔄
74'
T. Cissokho ↔ E. Levealahti
HJK Helsinki
🔄
74'
J. Kallinen ↔ L. Palmula
HJK Helsinki
🔄
74'
T. Pukki ↔ A. Cicale
HJK Helsinki
🔄
80'
M. Borchers ↔ M. Kirilov
HJK Helsinki
🟨
81'
Leonel Montano
HJK Helsinki
🔄
84'
S. Dahlstrom ↔ L. Andersson
Mariehamn
🔄
84'
A. Huttunen ↔ A. Soiniemi
Mariehamn
⚽
86'
L. Lappalainen · Assist: A. Cicale
HJK Helsinki
🟨
90+2'
Jiri Nissinen
Mariehamn

Mariehamn vs HJK Helsinki Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 60.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
60.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Mariehamn Win 19.5%
Draw 19.5%
HJK Helsinki Win 60.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mariehamn0.91
HJK Helsinki1.72
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WWDLW
11 GF / 25 GA
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki
WLDWL
28 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
0.73
Average Goals Scored
1.75
1.67
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
8
BTTS Yes
8
6
Over 2.5
9
1.82
Shots on Goal
2.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mariehamn Mariehamn 15 matches
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 16 matches
Mariehamn Statistic HJK Helsinki
1 Wins 7
6 Draws 4
8 Losses 5
11 Goals For 28
25 Goals Against 19
0.73 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
1.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
8 BTTS Yes 8
12 Over 1.5 11
6 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 4
0 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 2
1.82 Shots On Goal 2.08
4.64 Total Shots 5.67
2.45 Corners 1.92
24.7% Ball Possession 23.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by HJK Helsinki's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors HJK Helsinki. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mariehamn expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and HJK Helsinki in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward HJK Helsinki having the stronger overall control. Mariehamn have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. HJK Helsinki carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 18 points while Mariehamn sit 12 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Mariehamn Analysis

Mariehamn sit 12 with 4 points after 10 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats with a 5:17 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Dahlstrom (2 goals), A. Huttunen (1 goals), A. Larsson (1 goals), with creative support from Emmanuel Patut (1 assists), T. Koivisto (1 assists), Y. Amankwah (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

HJK Helsinki Analysis

HJK Helsinki arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 18 points after 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, while the 18:10 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Borchers (4 goals), T. Pukki (3 goals), A. Ring (2 goals), with creative support from T. Pukki (3 assists), D. Ezeh (2 assists), L. Lingman (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Mariehamn won 2 times, HJK Helsinki won 12 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:35 from Mariehamn's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (80.5%)
Predicted formations: Mariehamn 3-4-2-1 / HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Mariehamn wins 2, draws 1, HJK Helsinki wins 12

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
L L W D D
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W D W W L
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W D D W W
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D D W D D
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
W L L L D
6 22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L L L W L
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
L D L W W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
L L L D D
9 22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
D W W W L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
W W D D D
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
W D D L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
D L W L W
Play-offs
Relegation Play-offs