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FINLAND › VEIKKAUSLIIGA
25.07.2026 13:30
Wiklof Holding Arena
Referee: Joona Kontinen, Finland
Mariehamn
Match Timeline
AC Oulu
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
14'
A. Larsson
Mariehamn
🟨
36'
Otto Kemppainen
AC Oulu
🔄
46'
O. Kemppainen ↔ A. Kone
AC Oulu
🟨
52'
Aaro Soiniemi
Mariehamn
🟨
55'
Matias Ojala
AC Oulu
🔄
64'
M. Ojala ↔ N. Jokelainen
AC Oulu
🔄
74'
A. Stroud ↔ V. Widlund
Mariehamn
🟨
75'
Iiro Mendolin
AC Oulu
⚽
78'
E. Kallio · Assist: A. Kone
AC Oulu
🟨
88'
Juha Pirinen
AC Oulu

Mariehamn vs AC Oulu Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 75.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
75.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Mariehamn Win 8.9%
Draw 16%
AC Oulu Win 75.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mariehamn0.9
AC Oulu1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WWDLW
13 GF / 41 GA
AC Oulu AC Oulu
WLDWL
24 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
0.65
Average Goals Scored
1.33
2.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
9
BTTS Yes
9
9
Over 2.5
8
1.38
Shots on Goal
1.94

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mariehamn Mariehamn 20 matches
AC Oulu AC Oulu 18 matches
Mariehamn Statistic AC Oulu
1 Wins 9
6 Draws 3
13 Losses 6
13 Goals For 24
41 Goals Against 23
0.65 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
2.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
9 BTTS Yes 9
17 Over 1.5 12
9 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 4
0 Clean Sheets 6
11 Failed To Score 4
1.38 Shots On Goal 1.94
3.63 Total Shots 5.25
2.13 Corners 1.88
24.9% Ball Possession 20.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around AC Oulu's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward AC Oulu. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Mariehamn have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mariehamn expected to line up in 4-4-1-1 and AC Oulu in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AC Oulu having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. AC Oulu carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 26 points while Mariehamn sit 12 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Mariehamn Analysis

With 4 points from 15 games and a place of 12, Mariehamn still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 11 defeats with a 8:33 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Huttunen (1 goals), S. Dahlström (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Amankwah (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

AC Oulu Analysis

AC Oulu come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 26 points from 15 matches. The record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 20:18 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Mariehamn won 6 times, AC Oulu won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:24 from Mariehamn's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (91.1%)
Predicted formations: Mariehamn 4-4-1-1 / AC Oulu 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Mariehamn wins 6, draws 2, AC Oulu wins 7

Standings

Relegration Group
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 11 6 10 35:26 9 39
W L D L W
2 27 11 5 11 45:39 6 38
W D W W W
3 27 8 8 11 29:33 -4 32
L L L L D
4 27 6 9 12 29:37 -8 27
L W W D D
5 27 4 9 14 22:49 -27 21
D W D D L
6 27 4 7 16 22:49 -27 19
D D L W L
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation