BRAZIL SERIE C
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: J. Mendonca
Maranhão
Match Timeline
Paysandu
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
23'
Pedro Henrique
Paysandu
🟨
46'
Luis Gustavo
Maranhão
🔄
46'
Rafael Teixeira ↔ Luis Gustavo
Maranhão
🟨
53'
Vagalume
Maranhão
🔄
64'
Henrico ↔ Tiago Indio
Paysandu
🔄
64'
Kleiton Pego ↔ Lucas Cardoso
Paysandu
🔄
71'
Edson Fernando ↔ Railson
Maranhão
🔄
71'
Will ↔ Felipe Sales
Maranhão
🔄
71'
Felipe Cruz ↔ Joelson
Maranhão
🔄
75'
Juninho ↔ Italo Carvalho
Paysandu
🔄
75'
Thayllon ↔ Thalyson
Paysandu
🔄
77'
Rosivan ↔ Rodrigo
Maranhão
🔄
79'
F. Bonifazi ↔ Luciano
Paysandu
90'
Italo Carvalho
Paysandu

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 84.9%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.24
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
84.9%
1.28
BTTS Yes
75.1%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.24
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.07
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.50
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Maranhão Win 38.6%
Draw 15.1%
Paysandu Win 46.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Maranhão1.06
Paysandu1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Maranhão Maranhão
WWDLW
9 GF / 11 GA
Paysandu Paysandu
WLDWL
17 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
0.9
Average Goals Scored
1.7
1.1
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
5
BTTS Yes
8
5
Over 2.5
6
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Maranhão Maranhão 10 matches
Paysandu Paysandu 10 matches
Maranhão Statistic Paysandu
3 Wins 5
4 Draws 2
3 Losses 3
9 Goals For 17
11 Goals Against 13
0.9 Avg Goals Scored 1.7
1.1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
5 BTTS Yes 8
7 Over 1.5 9
5 Over 2.5 6
1 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 1
5 Failed To Score 1
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Paysandu's more proactive style and Maranhão's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Paysandu. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Paysandu having the stronger overall control. Paysandu carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 17 points while Maranhão sit 12 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Maranhão Analysis

From their first 9 matches, Maranhão have collected 12 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 9:11 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Vagalume (3 goals), Felipe Cruz (2 goals), Vander (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Paysandu Analysis

Paysandu approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 17 points after 9 outings. They have recorded 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, with a 16:11 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Juninho (5 goals), Kleiton Pego (4 goals), Italo Carvalho (3 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (84.9%)

Lineups

Maranhão
Formation
Paysandu
Vitao
Vitao
Edson Fernando
Edson Fernando
Lucao
Lucao
Tiburcio
Tiburcio
Lucas Santos
Lucas Santos
Vander
Vander
Rosivan
Rosivan
Vagalume
Vagalume
Will
Will
Felipe Cruz
Felipe Cruz
Rafael Teixeira
Rafael Teixeira
Gabriel Mesquita
Gabriel Mesquita
Edilson
Edilson
Castro
Castro
Bruno Bispo
Bruno Bispo
F. Bonifazi
F. Bonifazi
Pedro Henrique
Pedro Henrique
Henrico
Henrico
Marcinho
Marcinho
Thayllon
Thayllon
Kleiton Pego
Kleiton Pego
Juninho
Juninho
Maranhão 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
12
Vitao
3
Edson Fernando
↓ 71'
4
Lucao
14
Tiburcio
6
Lucas Santos
8
Vander
15
Rosivan
↓ 77'
20
Vagalume
🟨 53'
17
Will
↓ 71'
29
Felipe Cruz
↓ 71'
19
Rafael Teixeira
↓ 46'
Substitutes
23
Caue
5
Railson
↑ 71'
7
Felipe Sales
↑ 71'
9
Joelson
↑ 71'
10
Jorge Rocha
13
Caio Victor
18
Keven
22
Rodrigo
↑ 77'
26
Luis Gustavo
↑ 46' 🟨 46'
Paysandu 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
12
Gabriel Mesquita
2
Edilson
15
Castro
14
Bruno Bispo
31
F. Bonifazi
↓ 79'
39
Pedro Henrique
🟨 23'
5
Henrico
↓ 64'
10
Marcinho
19
Thayllon
↓ 75'
75
Kleiton Pego
↓ 64'
98
Juninho
↓ 75'
Substitutes
1
Jean Drosny
4
larley Brito
6
Luccao
9
Italo Carvalho
⚽ 90' ↑ 75'
25
Tiago Indio
↑ 64'
26
Libonati
30
Thalyson
↑ 75'
77
Luciano
↑ 79'
99
Lucas Cardoso
↑ 64'
Last matches: Maranhão
15.06.26
Ser
Maranhão
Maringá
0
0
D
31.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Anápolis
0
0
D
23.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Caxias
0
0
D
18.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Confiança
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Botafogo PB
3
1
W
04.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Floresta
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Volta Redonda
2
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Amazonas
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Barra
0
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Guarani Campinas
1
1
D
20.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
Santa Cruz
0
0
D
14.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
Santa Cruz
0
1
L
06.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
ASA
3
0
W
30.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
ASA
1
0
W
24.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
Central SC
0
0
D
16.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
Central SC
2
1
W
10.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
Tuna Luso
0
2
L
02.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
Tuna Luso
4
1
W
26.07.25
Ser
Maranhão
Altos
1
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Maranhão
Maracanã
3
0
W
Last matches: Paysandu
14.06.26
Ser
Paysandu
Inter De Limeira
1
2
L
31.05.26
Ser
Paysandu
Figueirense
1
2
L
25.05.26
Ser
Paysandu
Floresta
2
1
W
17.05.26
Ser
Paysandu
Caxias
0
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Paysandu
Anápolis
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Paysandu
Botafogo PB
4
2
W
25.04.26
Ser
Paysandu
AO Itabaiana
4
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Paysandu
Barra
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Paysandu
Brusque
1
1
D
05.04.26
Ser
Paysandu
Volta Redonda
1
0
W
Last matches: Maranhão
23.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Caxias
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Botafogo PB
3
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Volta Redonda
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Guarani Campinas
1
1
D
14.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
Santa Cruz
0
1
L
30.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
ASA
1
0
W
16.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
Central SC
2
1
W
02.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
Tuna Luso
4
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Maranhão
Maracanã
3
0
W
28.06.25
Ser
Maranhão
Sampaio Correa
2
0
W
08.06.25
Ser
Maranhão
Iguatu
1
1
D
24.05.25
Ser
Maranhão
Parnahyba
1
1
D
10.05.25
Ser
Maranhão
Tocantinópolis
2
3
L
03.05.25
Ser
Maranhão
Imperatriz
3
0
W
19.04.25
Ser
Maranhão
Altos
1
1
D
Last matches: Paysandu
31.05.26
Ser
Paysandu
Figueirense
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Paysandu
Caxias
0
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Paysandu
AO Itabaiana
4
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Paysandu
Volta Redonda
1
0
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.57
Draw 2.94
Home 2.76
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.25 1.27
Over 1.5 1.39
Over 1.75 1.49
Over 2.0 1.67
Over 2.25 1.97
Over 2.5 2.24
Over 2.75 2.60
Over 3.0 3.33
Over 3.25 3.16
Under 1.25 3.46
Under 1.5 2.83
Under 1.75 2.49
Under 2.0 2.15
Under 2.25 1.82
Under 2.5 1.62
Under 2.75 1.45
Under 3.0 1.29
Under 3.25 1.32
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.40
Draw 3.20
Home 2.62
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 2.00
Home 3.40
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.30
Home 3.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 1.5 1.40
Over 2.5 2.20
Over 3.5 4.00
Over 4.5 7.50
Over 5.5 11.00
Over 6.5 17.00
Under 0.5 7.50
Under 1.5 2.75
Under 2.5 1.65
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 4.5 1.07
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.53
Draw 2.88
Home 2.70
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.32
Draw 1.86
Home 3.52
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.84
Draw 2.24
Home 3.08
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 0.75 1.05
Over 1.0 1.06
Over 1.25 1.22
Over 1.5 1.34
Over 1.75 1.46
Over 2.0 1.60
Over 2.25 1.89
Over 2.5 2.17
Over 2.75 2.52
Over 3.0 3.20
Over 3.25 3.52
Over 3.5 3.94
Over 3.75 5.05
Over 4.0 7.40
Over 4.25 7.80
Over 4.5 8.30
Over 5.5 19.00
Over 6.5 17.00
Under 0.5 7.50
Under 0.75 6.76
Under 1.0 6.10
Under 1.25 3.60
Under 1.5 2.78
Under 1.75 2.46
Under 2.0 2.08
Under 2.25 1.79
Under 2.5 1.60
Under 2.75 1.44
Under 3.0 1.26
Under 3.25 1.23
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 3.75 1.10
Under 4.0 1.03
Under 4.25 1.02
Under 4.5 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.55
Draw 2.95
Home 2.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.35
Draw 2.06
Home 3.30
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.95
Draw 2.33
Home 3.00
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.0 1.10
Over 1.5 1.38
Over 2.0 1.66
Over 2.5 2.20
Over 3.0 3.35
Over 3.25 3.70
Over 3.5 4.00
Under 1.0 5.75
Under 1.5 2.75
Under 2.0 2.07
Under 2.5 1.57
Under 3.0 1.27
Under 3.25 1.23
Under 3.5 1.19

Standings

Serie C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 6 3 2 22:10 12 21
L W W W L
2 11 6 3 2 17:11 6 21
W L D W L
3 11 6 2 3 18:13 5 20
W L L W L
4 11 5 4 2 12:9 3 19
W W D W W
5 11 5 3 3 15:12 3 18
D D L W W
6 11 5 3 3 13:12 1 18
L W W D W
7 11 5 2 4 13:13 0 17
D W L L L
8 11 4 4 3 11:9 2 16
D L W D W
9 11 4 3 4 9:8 1 15
L W D D W
10 11 4 3 4 13:13 0 15
L L W L W
11 11 4 3 4 20:22 -2 15
D D L D W
12 11 4 3 4 10:14 -4 15
D W W D L
13 11 4 2 5 14:16 -2 14
W D L L L
14 11 4 2 5 7:11 -4 14
L W W W L
15 11 4 1 6 13:15 -2 13
W D W L L
16 11 3 4 4 9:12 -3 13
L D D D L
17 11 2 6 3 13:11 2 12
D L D L D
18 11 3 1 7 6:9 -3 10
W L L D W
19 11 2 2 7 8:14 -6 8
W L D L D
20 11 1 4 6 8:17 -9 7
L D L D W
Play-offs
Relegation