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ENGLAND › PREMIER LEAGUE
03.05.2026 14:30
Old Trafford
Referee: D. England
Manchester United
Match Timeline
Liverpool
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
6'
M. Cunha
Manchester United
⚽
14'
B. Sesko
Manchester United
🔄
46'
B. Sesko ↔ A. Diallo
Manchester United
⚽
47'
D. Szoboszlai
Liverpool
🟨
49'
Luke Shaw
Manchester United
⚽
56'
C. Gakpo · Assist: D. Szoboszlai
Liverpool
🔄
59'
A. Robertson ↔ M. Kerkez
Liverpool
🟨
75'
Curtis Jones
Liverpool
🔄
75'
B. Mbeumo ↔ P. Dorgu
Manchester United
🔄
75'
J. Frimpong ↔ R. Ngumoha
Liverpool
⚽
77'
K. Mainoo
Manchester United
🟨
81'
Bruno Fernandes
Manchester United
🟨
85'
Cody Gakpo
Liverpool
🔄
87'
M. Cunha ↔ J. Zirkzee
Manchester United
🔄
87'
I. Konate ↔ F. Chiesa
Liverpool
🔄
90+6'
B. Fernandes ↔ L. Yoro
Manchester United

Manchester United vs Liverpool Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 80.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
80.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Manchester United Win 80.9%
Draw 7.7%
Liverpool Win 11.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Manchester United1.55
Liverpool1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
Manchester United Manchester United
WWDLW
61 GF / 48 GA
Liverpool Liverpool
WLDWL
91 GF / 63 GA
Key Stats
1.74
Average Goals Scored
1.82
1.37
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
26
BTTS Yes
27
22
Over 2.5
31
5.77
Shots on Goal
5.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Manchester United Manchester United 35 matches
Liverpool Liverpool 50 matches
Manchester United Statistic Liverpool
17 Wins 27
10 Draws 7
8 Losses 16
61 Goals For 91
48 Goals Against 63
1.74 Avg Goals Scored 1.82
1.37 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
26 BTTS Yes 27
30 Over 1.5 40
22 Over 2.5 31
12 Over 3.5 17
6 Clean Sheets 16
3 Failed To Score 9
5.77 Shots On Goal 5.4
15.6 Total Shots 16.44
4.77 Corners 6.2
52.8% Ball Possession 57.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Liverpool. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Manchester United Analysis

Manchester United come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 61 points after 34 matches. With 17 wins, 10 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 60:46, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by B. Sesko (10 goals), B. Mbeumo (9 goals), Casemiro (9 goals), with creative support from Bruno Fernandes (19 assists), B. Mbeumo (3 assists), Patrick Dorgu (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their record of 11 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Liverpool Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 58 points from 34 games, Liverpool bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 17 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses, with a 57:44 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on H. Ekitike (11 goals), M. Salah (7 goals), C. Gakpo (6 goals), with creative support from M. Salah (6 assists), C. Gakpo (5 assists), H. Ekitike (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 7 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Manchester United won 6 times, Liverpool won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:39 from Manchester United's perspective. 14 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 4.2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.3%)
Predicted formations: Manchester United 4-2-3-1 / Liverpool 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Manchester United 3, Liverpool 9
H2H summary: Manchester United wins 6, draws 3, Liverpool wins 6

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship