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ECUADOR › LIGA PRO
26.04.2026 18:00
Estadio Bellavista
Referee: Russell Macario Teran Leon, Ecuador
Macara
Match Timeline
Libertad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
T. Chamba · Assist: J. Klinger
Macara
⚽
16'
M. Tello · Assist: L. Ferro
Macara
🔄
46'
M. Viera ↔ T. Espinoza
Macara
🔄
46'
M. Tello ↔ J. Estacio
Macara
🔄
46'
B. Corozo ↔ S. Castro
Libertad
🔄
46'
V. Branda ↔ A. Chere
Libertad
🔄
67'
L. Ferro ↔ C. Caicedo
Macara
🔄
67'
J. Klinger ↔ F. Posse
Macara
🟨
74'
Jackson Rodríguez
Libertad
⚽
77'
J. Marrufo
Macara
🔄
80'
T. Chamba ↔ M. Ayala
Macara
🔄
82'
D. Coronel ↔ G. J. Cortez Casierra
Libertad
🔄
82'
J. Guisamano ↔ R. Zambrano
Libertad
🟨
90+2'
Cristhian Valencia
Libertad

Macara vs Libertad Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
65.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.3%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Macara Win 82.5%
Draw 8%
Libertad Win 9.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Macara0.99
Libertad0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Macara Macara
WWDLW
11 GF / 14 GA
Libertad Libertad
WLDWL
8 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
0.92
Average Goals Scored
0.8
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
6
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
4
4.7
Shots on Goal
3.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Macara Macara 12 matches
Libertad Libertad 10 matches
Macara Statistic Libertad
3 Wins 2
4 Draws 4
5 Losses 4
11 Goals For 8
14 Goals Against 11
0.92 Avg Goals Scored 0.8
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
6 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 6
5 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 4
4.7 Shots On Goal 3.4
12.8 Total Shots 10.3
4.9 Corners 3.9
50.2% Ball Possession 49.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Macara's more proactive style and Libertad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Libertad. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Macara expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Libertad in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Libertad having the stronger overall control.

Macara Analysis

Macara approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 13 points from 10 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 6:5 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Franco Posse (4 goals), F. Paz (2 goals), Gaston Blanc (1 goals), with creative support from F. Paz (2 assists), Franco Posse (1 assists), J. Chala (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Libertad Analysis

With 10 points from 10 games and a place of 14, Libertad still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 8:8, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through A. Chere (2 goals), V. Branda (2 goals), B. Caicedo (1 goals), with creative support from G. J. Cortez Casierra (2 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), A. Chere (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Macara won 4 times, Libertad won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:2 from Macara's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.83 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92%)
Predicted formations: Macara 4-2-3-1 / Libertad 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Macara wins 4, draws 1, Libertad wins 1

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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