ECUADOR LIGA PRO
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Bellavista
Referee: R. Leon
Macara
Match Timeline
Libertad
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
T. Chamba · Assist: J. Klinger
Macara
16'
M. Tello · Assist: L. Ferro
Macara
🔄
46'
M. Viera ↔ T. Espinoza
Macara
🔄
46'
M. Tello ↔ J. Estacio
Macara
🔄
46'
B. Corozo ↔ S. Castro
Libertad
🔄
46'
V. Branda ↔ A. Chere
Libertad
🔄
67'
L. Ferro ↔ C. Caicedo
Macara
🔄
67'
J. Klinger ↔ F. Posse
Macara
🟨
74'
Jackson Rodríguez
Libertad
77'
J. Marrufo
Macara
🔄
80'
T. Chamba ↔ M. Ayala
Macara
🔄
82'
D. Coronel ↔ G. J. Cortez Casierra
Libertad
🔄
82'
J. Guisamano ↔ R. Zambrano
Libertad
🟨
90+2'
Cristhian Valencia
Libertad

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
65.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Macara Win 82.5%
Draw 8%
Libertad Win 9.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Macara0.99
Libertad0.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Macara Macara
WWDLW
11 GF / 14 GA
Libertad Libertad
WLDWL
8 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
0.92
Average Goals Scored
0.8
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
6
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
4
4.7
Shots on Goal
3.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Macara Macara 12 matches
Libertad Libertad 10 matches
Macara Statistic Libertad
3 Wins 2
4 Draws 4
5 Losses 4
11 Goals For 8
14 Goals Against 11
0.92 Avg Goals Scored 0.8
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
6 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 6
5 Over 2.5 4
2 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 4
4.7 Shots On Goal 3.4
12.7 Total Shots 10.1
4.9 Corners 3.9
50.3% Ball Possession 49.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Macara's more proactive style and Libertad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Libertad. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Macara expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Libertad in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Libertad having the stronger overall control.

Macara Analysis

Macara approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 13 points from 10 matches. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 6:5 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Franco Posse (4 goals), F. Paz (2 goals), Gaston Blanc (1 goals), with creative support from F. Paz (2 assists), Franco Posse (1 assists), J. Chala (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Libertad Analysis

With 10 points from 10 games and a place of 14, Libertad still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 8:8, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through A. Chere (2 goals), V. Branda (2 goals), B. Caicedo (1 goals), with creative support from G. J. Cortez Casierra (2 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), A. Chere (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Macara won 4 times, Libertad won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:1 from Macara's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92%)
Predicted formations: Macara 4-2-3-1 / Libertad 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Macara wins 4, draws 1, Libertad wins 0
Stats
Macara Macara
Libertad Libertad
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
8
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
3 Corner Kicks 5
14 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 2
44% Ball Possession 56%
17 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Goal 2
5 Shots off Goal 8
3 Blocked Shots 3
7 Shots insidebox 7
10 Shots outsidebox 6
2 Goalkeeper Saves 5
327 Total passes 403
255 Passes accurate 345
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Macara
Formation
Libertad
D. Cuero
D. Cuero
D. Bolanos
D. Bolanos
J. Jimenez
J. Jimenez
J. Marrufo
J. Marrufo
J. Mohor
J. Mohor
G. Blanc
G. Blanc
M. Tello
M. Tello
M. Viera
M. Viera
T. Chamba
T. Chamba
J. Klinger
🎯
J. Klinger
L. Ferro
🎯
L. Ferro
D. Cabezas
D. Cabezas
E. Patta
E. Patta
M. Lucas
M. Lucas
A. Garcia
A. Garcia
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
V. Branda
V. Branda
I. Zambrano
I. Zambrano
C. Valencia
C. Valencia
J. Guisamano
J. Guisamano
B. Corozo
B. Corozo
D. Coronel
D. Coronel
Macara 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
12
D. Cuero
G
25
D. Bolanos
D
4
J. Jimenez
D
14
J. Marrufo
⚽ 77'
D
27
J. Mohor
D
8
G. Blanc
M
15
M. Tello
⚽ 16' ↓ 46'
M
20
M. Viera
↓ 46'
M
30
T. Chamba
⚽ 11' ↓ 80'
M
87
J. Klinger
🎯 11' ↓ 67'
M
22
L. Ferro
🎯 16' ↓ 67'
F
Substitutes
1
R. Rodriguez
G
21
S. Etchebarne
D
26
M. Medranda
D
11
T. Espinoza
↑ 46'
M
50
C. Caicedo
↑ 67'
M
13
M. Ayala
↑ 80'
D
77
J. Chala
F
5
J. Estacio
↑ 46'
M
9
F. Posse
↑ 67'
F
17
J. Zambrano
M
19
P. Ramos
F
3
J. Espinoza
D
Libertad 4-4-2
Starting XI
12
D. Cabezas
G
17
E. Patta
D
25
M. Lucas
D
36
A. Garcia
D
20
J. G. Rodriguez Perlaza
🟨 74'
D
70
V. Branda
↓ 46'
M
7
I. Zambrano
M
63
C. Valencia
🟨 90+2'
M
23
J. Guisamano
↓ 82'
M
19
B. Corozo
↓ 46'
F
49
D. Coronel
↓ 82'
F
Substitutes
22
J. Mina
G
66
J. Estacio
M
10
G. J. Cortez Casierra
↑ 82'
M
29
R. Zambrano
↑ 82'
D
11
H. Batalla
F
8
S. Castro
↑ 46'
M
33
A. Chere
↑ 46'
F
16
J. Cifuentes
F
9
E. Caicedo
F
Last matches: Macara
01.06.26
Lig
Macara
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
24.05.26
Lig
Macara
Emelec
0
2
L
16.05.26
Lig
Macara
Independiente del Valle
0
3
L
10.05.26
Lig
Macara
Manta FC
1
0
W
03.05.26
Lig
Macara
Orense SC
1
2
L
24.04.26
Lig
Macara
Universidad Catolica
0
4
L
19.04.26
Lig
Macara
Barcelona SC
3
1
W
12.04.26
Lig
Macara
Guayaquil City FC
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Macara
Aucas
0
1
L
21.03.26
Lig
Macara
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
18.03.26
Lig
Macara
Delfin SC
1
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Macara
Mushuc Runa SC
0
0
D
08.03.26
Lig
Macara
Tecnico Universitario
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
Macara
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
22.02.26
Lig
Macara
Leones del Norte
0
0
D
14.02.26
Fri
Macara
Deportivo Cuenca
1
2
L
25.01.26
Fri
Macara
FBC Melgar
1
2
L
Last matches: Libertad
30.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
2
L
23.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Independiente del Valle
3
2
W
16.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
10.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Emelec
1
1
D
02.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Aucas
3
2
W
21.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
18.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
12.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Orense SC
1
2
L
07.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Mushuc Runa SC
2
2
D
21.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
0
0
D
19.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Barcelona SC
0
0
D
13.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
08.03.26
Lig
Libertad
LDU de Quito
2
1
W
28.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
24.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
0
W
H2H: Macara vs Libertad
26.04.26
H2H
Macara
Libertad
3
0
W
21.09.25
H2H
Macara
Libertad
1
1
D
25.05.25
H2H
Libertad
Macara
0
1
W
17.08.24
H2H
Libertad
Macara
0
1
W
15.03.24
H2H
Macara
Libertad
3
0
W
Last matches: Macara
16.05.26
Lig
Macara
Independiente del Valle
0
3
L
03.05.26
Lig
Macara
Orense SC
1
2
L
19.04.26
Lig
Macara
Barcelona SC
3
1
W
05.04.26
Lig
Macara
Aucas
0
1
L
18.03.26
Lig
Macara
Delfin SC
1
0
W
08.03.26
Lig
Macara
Tecnico Universitario
1
1
D
22.02.26
Lig
Macara
Leones del Norte
0
0
D
14.02.26
Fri
Macara
Deportivo Cuenca
1
2
L
H2H at home: Macara
26.04.26
H2H
Macara
Libertad
3
0
W
21.09.25
H2H
Macara
Libertad
1
1
D
15.03.24
H2H
Macara
Libertad
3
0
W
Last matches: Libertad
30.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Manta FC
1
2
L
23.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Independiente del Valle
3
2
W
10.05.26
Lig
Libertad
Emelec
1
1
D
18.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Universidad Catolica
0
2
L
12.04.26
Lig
Libertad
Orense SC
1
2
L
21.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Delfin SC
0
0
D
13.03.26
Lig
Libertad
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Libertad
Leones del Norte
1
1
D
H2H away: Libertad
26.04.26
H2H
Macara
Libertad
3
0
L
21.09.25
H2H
Macara
Libertad
1
1
D
15.03.24
H2H
Macara
Libertad
3
0
L

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 12 1 3 32:18 14 37
W L W W W
2 16 8 3 5 19:13 6 27
W D W W W
3 16 8 3 5 18:17 1 27
W D W W W
4 16 7 5 4 26:14 12 26
L W D L L
5 16 7 5 4 18:13 5 26
L W W L D
6 16 7 5 4 19:16 3 26
D W L W L
7 16 6 4 6 21:22 -1 22
L L W W W
8 16 6 2 8 17:16 1 20
W W L W L
9 16 5 5 6 15:18 -3 20
D L L W L
10 16 6 4 6 13:16 -3 19
W W D D L
11 16 5 4 7 14:19 -5 19
L D L L L
12 16 4 6 6 19:21 -2 18
D D L L L
13 16 4 5 7 15:18 -3 17
D L W L W
14 16 4 5 7 16:22 -6 17
L W L D W
15 16 4 4 8 8:15 -7 16
L L D L W
16 16 3 3 10 7:19 -12 12
W L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs