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FRANCE › LIGUE 1
26.04.2026 13:00
Stade du Moustoir
Referee: B. Millot
Lorient
Match Timeline
Strasbourg
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
Lucas Høgsberg
Strasbourg
⚽
26'
N. Cadiou · Assist: P. Katseris
Lorient
⚽
54'
P. Pagis
Lorient
⚽
62'
S. Nanasi · Assist: R. Luis
Strasbourg
🔄
65'
I. Doukoure ↔ A. Omobamidele
Strasbourg
🔄
67'
J. Enciso ↔ M. Godo
Strasbourg
🔄
67'
S. El Mourabet ↔ A. Ouattara
Strasbourg
🔄
69'
B. Dieng ↔ A. Tosin
Lorient
🔄
70'
L. Abergel ↔ A. Avom
Lorient
🟨
71'
Panos Katseris
Lorient
🟨
73'
Maxi Oyedele
Strasbourg
🔄
76'
J. Mwanga ↔ D. Moreira
Strasbourg
🔄
82'
P. Pagis ↔ D. Karim
Lorient
🔄
82'
J. Makengo ↔ S. Soumano
Lorient
🔄
85'
P. Katseris ↔ Igor Silva
Lorient
🔄
85'
G. Yassine ↔ E. Emegha
Strasbourg
⚽
90'
N. Adjei
Strasbourg
⚽
90'
A. Omobamidele
Strasbourg

Lorient vs Strasbourg Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 78.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 65.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
78.5%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
65.9%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Lorient Win 39.9%
Draw 21.5%
Strasbourg Win 38.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lorient1.38
Strasbourg1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lorient Lorient
WWDLW
52 GF / 45 GA
Strasbourg Strasbourg
WLDWL
80 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.74
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
17
BTTS Yes
28
14
Over 2.5
29
4.12
Shots on Goal
5.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lorient Lorient 34 matches
Strasbourg Strasbourg 46 matches
Lorient Statistic Strasbourg
13 Wins 24
12 Draws 10
9 Losses 12
52 Goals For 80
45 Goals Against 53
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.74
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
17 BTTS Yes 28
29 Over 1.5 36
14 Over 2.5 29
11 Over 3.5 15
9 Clean Sheets 13
10 Failed To Score 9
4.12 Shots On Goal 5.22
12.15 Total Shots 12.57
3.44 Corners 4.28
46.8% Ball Possession 55.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Strasbourg's more proactive style and Lorient's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Strasbourg. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lorient expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Strasbourg in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Strasbourg having the stronger overall control.

Lorient Analysis

So far, Lorient have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 41 points from 30 matches. The record of 10 wins, 11 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 38:44 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ahmadou Bamba Dieng (9 goals), Pablo Pagis (8 goals), Sambou Soumano (5 goals), with creative support from Arsène Kouassi (5 assists), Pablo Pagis (3 assists), Bamo Meïté (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with B. Fadiga, M. Talbi, I. Toure unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Strasbourg Analysis

From their first 29 matches, Strasbourg have collected 43 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 46:34 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Joaquin Panichelli (17 goals), Martial Godo (8 goals), Emmanuel Emegha (4 goals), with creative support from Guéla Doué (6 assists), Diego Moreira (5 assists), Valentín Barco (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with G. Doue, J. Panichelli, A. Anselmino unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Lorient won 3 times, Strasbourg won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:14 from Lorient's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.7 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.5%)
Predicted formations: Lorient 3-4-2-1 / Strasbourg 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Lorient 4, Strasbourg 4
H2H summary: Lorient wins 3, draws 4, Strasbourg wins 3

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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