Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
55.8%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
73.3%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
67.6%
|
- |
Lorient
Marseille
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Lorient
33 matches
Marseille
41 matches
| Lorient | Statistic | Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wins | 22 |
| 12 | Draws | 5 |
| 9 | Losses | 14 |
| 50 | Goals For | 89 |
| 45 | Goals Against | 54 |
| 1.52 | Avg Goals Scored | 2.17 |
| 1.36 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
| 17 | BTTS Yes | 20 |
| 28 | Over 1.5 | 32 |
| 14 | Over 2.5 | 30 |
| 11 | Over 3.5 | 18 |
| 8 | Clean Sheets | 12 |
| 10 | Failed To Score | 9 |
| 4.12 | Shots On Goal | 5.8 |
| 12.18 | Total Shots | 14.54 |
| 3.52 | Corners | 5.24 |
| 46.9% | Ball Possession | 57.6% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match looks like a contest between Marseille's more proactive style and Lorient's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lorient expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Marseille in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Marseille having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Marseille. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.
Lorient sit 9 with 38 points after 29 league matches. The record of 9 wins, 11 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 38:44 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ahmadou Bamba Dieng (8 goals), Pablo Pagis (8 goals), A. Tosin (4 goals), with creative support from A. Kouassi (6 assists), Bamo Meïté (3 assists), Pablo Pagis (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without M. Talbi, I. Toure, M. Bamba, A. Kouassi, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.
Marseille come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 52 points after 29 matches. They have recorded 16 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, with a 58:38 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on M. Greenwood (15 goals), P. Aubameyang (9 goals), A. Gouiri (7 goals), with creative support from M. Greenwood (6 assists), P. Aubameyang (5 assists), Igor Paixão (5 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with N. Aguerd, G. Kondogbia, C. Egan-Riley, F. Medina unavailable.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lorient won 2 times, Marseille won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:36 from Lorient's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.
Lorient
4
2
6
13
1
1
Lineups
Lorient
Le Havre
Lorient
Metz
Lorient
Paris Saint Germain
Lorient
Strasbourg
Lorient
Lyon
Lorient
Paris FC
Lorient
Toulouse
Lorient
Lens
Lorient
Lille
Lorient
Nice
Lorient
Auxerre
Lorient
Nice
Lorient
Angers
Lorient
Stade Brestois 29
Lorient
Paris FC
Lorient
Nantes
Lorient
Rennes
Lorient
Monaco
Lorient
Hauts Lyonnais
Lorient
Metz
Marseille
Rennes
Marseille
Le Havre
Marseille
Nantes
Marseille
Nice
Marseille
Metz
Marseille
Monaco
Marseille
Lille
Marseille
Auxerre
Marseille
Toulouse
Marseille
Toulouse
Marseille
Lyon
Marseille
Stade Brestois 29
Marseille
Strasbourg
Marseille
Paris Saint Germain
Marseille
Rennes
Marseille
Paris FC
Marseille
Club Brugge KV
Marseille
Lens
Marseille
Liverpool
Marseille
Angers
Lorient
Le Havre
Lorient
Strasbourg
Lorient
Paris FC
Lorient
Lens
Lorient
Nice
Lorient
Auxerre
Lorient
Angers
Lorient
Paris FC
Lorient
Nantes
Lorient
Metz
Lorient
Lyon
Lorient
Nice
Lorient
Toulouse
Lorient
Paris Saint Germain
Lorient
Stade Brestois 29
Lorient
Monaco
Lorient
Lille
Lorient
Rennes
Lorient
Le Mans
Marseille
Le Havre
Marseille
Nantes
Marseille
Monaco
Marseille
Toulouse
Marseille
Stade Brestois 29
Marseille
Paris Saint Germain
Marseille
Paris FC
Marseille
Club Brugge KV
Marseille
Angers
Marseille
Bayeux
Marseille
Bourg-en-bresse 01
Marseille
Union St. Gilloise
Marseille
Lille
Marseille
Nice
Marseille
Auxerre
Marseille
Lens
Marseille
Sporting CP
Marseille
Metz
Marseille
Strasbourg
Marseille
Real Madrid
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 74:29 | 45 | 76 |
L
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 2 | 34 | 22 | 4 | 8 | 66:35 | 31 | 70 |
W
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 3 | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 52:37 | 15 | 61 |
L
W
D
W
D
|
|
| 4 | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 53:40 | 13 | 60 |
L
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 5 |
Marseille
Away
|
34 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 63:45 | 18 | 59 |
W
W
L
D
L
|
| 6 | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 59:50 | 9 | 59 |
L
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 7 | 34 | 16 | 6 | 12 | 60:54 | 6 | 54 |
L
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 8 | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 58:47 | 11 | 53 |
W
W
D
L
W
|
|
| 9 |
Lorient
Home
|
34 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 48:51 | -3 | 45 |
L
W
D
L
W
|
| 10 | 33 | 12 | 8 | 13 | 47:46 | 1 | 44 |
W
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 11 | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 47:50 | -3 | 44 |
W
L
W
L
W
|
|
| 12 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 43:55 | -12 | 39 |
D
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 13 | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 29:48 | -19 | 36 |
D
D
L
L
D
|
|
| 14 | 34 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 32:44 | -12 | 35 |
W
L
D
D
D
|
|
| 15 | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34:44 | -10 | 34 |
W
W
W
L
D
|
|
| 16 | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 37:60 | -23 | 32 |
W
D
D
L
D
|
|
| 17 | 33 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 29:52 | -23 | 23 |
L
W
L
L
D
|
|
| 18 | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 32:76 | -44 | 17 |
D
L
L
D
L
|