FRANCE LIGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
Stade du Moustoir
Referee: E. Wattellier
Lorient
Match Timeline
Marseille
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
28'
P. Katseris
Lorient
🔄
46'
I. Paixao ↔ T. Weah
Marseille
🟨
57'
Benjamin Pavard
Marseille
58'
B. Dieng · Assist: P. Pagis
Lorient
🔄
59'
A. Gouiri ↔ E. Nwaneri
Marseille
🔄
59'
H. Abdelli ↔ B. Nadir
Marseille
🔄
69'
J. Makengo ↔ L. Abergel
Lorient
🟨
74'
Bilal Nadir
Marseille
🔄
75'
B. Dieng ↔ A. Tosin
Lorient
🔄
76'
P. Hojbjerg ↔ A. Vermeeren
Marseille
🔄
76'
P. Aubameyang ↔ U. Lamare El Kadmiri
Marseille
🔄
82'
P. Katseris ↔ Igor Silva
Lorient
🔄
82'
P. Pagis ↔ S. Soumano
Lorient
🟨
90'
Timothy Weah
Marseille

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 73.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
73.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.6%
-
Probability Distribution
Lorient Win 44.2%
Draw 0%
Marseille Win 55.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lorient1.44
Marseille1.85
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lorient Lorient
WWDLW
50 GF / 45 GA
Marseille Marseille
WLDWL
89 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
2.17
1.36
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
17
BTTS Yes
20
14
Over 2.5
30
4.12
Shots on Goal
5.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lorient Lorient 33 matches
Marseille Marseille 41 matches
Lorient Statistic Marseille
12 Wins 22
12 Draws 5
9 Losses 14
50 Goals For 89
45 Goals Against 54
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 2.17
1.36 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
17 BTTS Yes 20
28 Over 1.5 32
14 Over 2.5 30
11 Over 3.5 18
8 Clean Sheets 12
10 Failed To Score 9
4.12 Shots On Goal 5.8
12.18 Total Shots 14.54
3.52 Corners 5.24
46.9% Ball Possession 57.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Marseille's more proactive style and Lorient's more cautious structure. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lorient expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Marseille in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Marseille having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Marseille. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Lorient Analysis

Lorient sit 9 with 38 points after 29 league matches. The record of 9 wins, 11 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 38:44 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ahmadou Bamba Dieng (8 goals), Pablo Pagis (8 goals), A. Tosin (4 goals), with creative support from A. Kouassi (6 assists), Bamo Meïté (3 assists), Pablo Pagis (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without M. Talbi, I. Toure, M. Bamba, A. Kouassi, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Marseille Analysis

Marseille come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 52 points after 29 matches. They have recorded 16 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses, with a 58:38 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on M. Greenwood (15 goals), P. Aubameyang (9 goals), A. Gouiri (7 goals), with creative support from M. Greenwood (6 assists), P. Aubameyang (5 assists), Igor Paixão (5 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with N. Aguerd, G. Kondogbia, C. Egan-Riley, F. Medina unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lorient won 2 times, Marseille won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:36 from Lorient's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Lorient 3-4-2-1 / Marseille 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Lorient 5, Marseille 4
H2H summary: Lorient wins 2, draws 3, Marseille wins 10
Stats
Lorient Lorient
Marseille Marseille
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
13
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
1
1 Corner Kicks 7
6 Fouls 10
2 Offsides 0
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Goal 2
6 Shots off Goal 13
1 Blocked Shots 1
5 Shots insidebox 11
6 Shots outsidebox 5
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
382 Total passes 485
318 Passes accurate 426
1.33 expected_goals 1.65
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Lorient
Formation
Marseille
Y. Mvogo
Y. Mvogo
B. Meite
B. Meite
N. Adjei
N. Adjei
A. Faye
A. Faye
P. Katseris
P. Katseris
A. Avom
A. Avom
N. Cadiou
N. Cadiou
D. Yongwa
D. Yongwa
J. Makengo
J. Makengo
B. Dieng
B. Dieng
P. Pagis
🎯
P. Pagis
G. Rulli
G. Rulli
B. Pavard
B. Pavard
L. Balerdi
L. Balerdi
Emerson
Emerson
H. J. Traore
H. J. Traore
P. Hojbjerg
P. Hojbjerg
H. Abdelli
H. Abdelli
I. Paixao
I. Paixao
M. Greenwood
M. Greenwood
A. Gouiri
A. Gouiri
P. Aubameyang
P. Aubameyang
Lorient 3-4-3
Starting XI
38
Y. Mvogo
G
5
B. Meite
D
32
N. Adjei
D
25
A. Faye
D
77
P. Katseris
⚽ 28' ↓ 82'
M
62
A. Avom
M
8
N. Cadiou
M
44
D. Yongwa
M
17
J. Makengo
↓ 69'
F
12
B. Dieng
⚽ 58' ↓ 75'
F
10
P. Pagis
🎯 58' ↓ 82'
F
Substitutes
21
B. Kamara
G
6
L. Abergel
↑ 69'
M
2
Igor Silva
↑ 82'
D
29
D. Karim
M
35
D. Semedo
M
97
S. Siba
D
15
A. Tosin
↑ 75'
F
7
B. Fadiga
M
28
S. Soumano
↑ 82'
F
Marseille 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
G. Rulli
G
28
B. Pavard
🟨 57'
D
5
L. Balerdi
D
33
Emerson
D
20
H. J. Traore
M
23
P. Hojbjerg
↓ 76'
M
8
H. Abdelli
↓ 59'
M
14
I. Paixao
↓ 46'
M
10
M. Greenwood
F
9
A. Gouiri
↓ 59'
F
17
P. Aubameyang
↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
12
J. De Lange
G
11
E. Nwaneri
↑ 59'
M
26
B. Nadir
↑ 59' 🟨 74'
M
18
A. Vermeeren
↑ 76'
M
72
H. Hamzaoui
D
78
E. Lago
F
71
N. Kamissoko
M
35
U. Lamare El Kadmiri
↑ 76'
F
22
T. Weah
↑ 46' 🟨 90'
F
Last matches: Lorient
17.05.26
Lig
Lorient
Le Havre
0
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Lorient
Metz
4
0
W
02.05.26
Lig
Lorient
Paris Saint Germain
2
2
D
26.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Strasbourg
2
3
L
12.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Lyon
0
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Paris FC
1
1
D
21.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Toulouse
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Lens
2
1
W
08.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Lille
1
1
D
04.03.26
Cou
Lorient
Nice
0
0
D
01.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Auxerre
2
2
D
22.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Nice
3
3
D
15.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Angers
2
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
04.02.26
Cou
Lorient
Paris FC
2
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Lorient
Nantes
2
1
W
24.01.26
Lig
Lorient
Rennes
2
0
W
16.01.26
Lig
Lorient
Monaco
3
1
W
10.01.26
Cou
Lorient
Hauts Lyonnais
3
1
W
04.01.26
Lig
Lorient
Metz
1
1
D
Last matches: Marseille
17.05.26
Lig
Marseille
Rennes
3
1
W
10.05.26
Lig
Marseille
Le Havre
1
0
W
02.05.26
Lig
Marseille
Nantes
0
3
L
26.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Nice
1
1
D
10.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Metz
3
1
W
05.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Monaco
1
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Lille
1
2
L
13.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Auxerre
1
0
W
07.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Toulouse
1
0
W
04.03.26
Cou
Marseille
Toulouse
2
2
D
01.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Lyon
3
2
W
20.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
14.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Strasbourg
2
2
D
08.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Paris Saint Germain
0
5
L
03.02.26
Cou
Marseille
Rennes
3
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Paris FC
2
2
D
28.01.26
UEF
Marseille
Club Brugge KV
0
3
L
24.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Lens
3
1
W
21.01.26
UEF
Marseille
Liverpool
0
3
L
17.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Angers
5
2
W
H2H: Lorient vs Marseille
18.04.26
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
2
0
W
12.09.25
H2H
Marseille
Lorient
4
0
L
12.05.24
H2H
Marseille
Lorient
3
1
L
10.12.23
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
2
4
L
09.04.23
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
0
0
D
14.01.23
H2H
Marseille
Lorient
3
1
L
08.05.22
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
0
3
L
17.10.21
H2H
Marseille
Lorient
4
1
L
17.04.21
H2H
Marseille
Lorient
3
2
L
24.10.20
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
0
1
L
05.03.17
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
1
4
L
26.08.16
H2H
Marseille
Lorient
2
0
L
12.03.16
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
1
1
D
18.10.15
H2H
Marseille
Lorient
1
1
D
24.04.15
H2H
Marseille
Lorient
3
5
W
Last matches: Lorient
17.05.26
Lig
Lorient
Le Havre
0
2
L
26.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Strasbourg
2
3
L
05.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Paris FC
1
1
D
14.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Lens
2
1
W
04.03.26
Cou
Lorient
Nice
0
0
D
01.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Auxerre
2
2
D
15.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Angers
2
0
W
04.02.26
Cou
Lorient
Paris FC
2
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Lorient
Nantes
2
1
W
04.01.26
Lig
Lorient
Metz
1
1
D
07.12.25
Lig
Lorient
Lyon
1
0
W
30.11.25
Lig
Lorient
Nice
3
1
W
09.11.25
Lig
Lorient
Toulouse
1
1
D
29.10.25
Lig
Lorient
Paris Saint Germain
1
1
D
19.10.25
Lig
Lorient
Stade Brestois 29
3
3
D
27.09.25
Lig
Lorient
Monaco
3
1
W
30.08.25
Lig
Lorient
Lille
1
7
L
24.08.25
Lig
Lorient
Rennes
4
0
W
13.08.19
Cou
Lorient
Le Mans
1
2
L
H2H at home: Lorient
18.04.26
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
2
0
W
10.12.23
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
2
4
L
09.04.23
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
0
0
D
08.05.22
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
0
3
L
24.10.20
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
0
1
L
05.03.17
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
1
4
L
12.03.16
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
1
1
D
Last matches: Marseille
10.05.26
Lig
Marseille
Le Havre
1
0
W
02.05.26
Lig
Marseille
Nantes
0
3
L
05.04.26
Lig
Marseille
Monaco
1
2
L
07.03.26
Lig
Marseille
Toulouse
1
0
W
20.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
08.02.26
Lig
Marseille
Paris Saint Germain
0
5
L
31.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Paris FC
2
2
D
28.01.26
UEF
Marseille
Club Brugge KV
0
3
L
17.01.26
Lig
Marseille
Angers
5
2
W
13.01.26
Cou
Marseille
Bayeux
9
0
W
21.12.25
Cou
Marseille
Bourg-en-bresse 01
6
0
W
09.12.25
UEF
Marseille
Union St. Gilloise
3
2
W
05.12.25
Lig
Marseille
Lille
0
1
L
21.11.25
Lig
Marseille
Nice
5
1
W
01.11.25
Lig
Marseille
Auxerre
1
0
W
25.10.25
Lig
Marseille
Lens
1
2
L
22.10.25
UEF
Marseille
Sporting CP
1
2
L
04.10.25
Lig
Marseille
Metz
3
0
W
26.09.25
Lig
Marseille
Strasbourg
2
1
W
16.09.25
UEF
Marseille
Real Madrid
1
2
L
H2H away: Marseille
18.04.26
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
2
0
L
10.12.23
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
2
4
W
09.04.23
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
0
0
D
08.05.22
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
0
3
W
24.10.20
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
0
1
W
05.03.17
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
1
4
W
12.03.16
H2H
Lorient
Marseille
1
1
D

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Lorient 5 missing
-
M. Talbi
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
I. Toure
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Bamba
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
A. Kouassi
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
T. Le Bris
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Marseille 4 missing
-
N. Aguerd
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT
-
G. Kondogbia
Questionable Thigh Injury
OUT
-
C. Egan-Riley
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
F. Medina
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT