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BRAZIL › SERIE B
26.07.2026 21:30
Estadio Vitorino Goncalves Dias
Referee: Thaillan Azevedo Gomes, Brazil
Londrina
Match Timeline
Novorizontino
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
16'
Paulinho Moccelin · Assist: Heron
Londrina
⚽
20'
Romulo
Novorizontino
🟨
23'
Alexis Alvarino
Novorizontino
🟨
35'
Christian Ortíz
Novorizontino
⚽
40'
Robson · Assist: Romulo
Novorizontino
⚽
45'
Reidiney · Assist: Robson
Novorizontino
🔄
46'
Heron ↔ Artur
Londrina
🔄
46'
Lucas Marques ↔ Willian Pottker
Londrina
🔄
46'
C. Ortiz ↔ Nicolas Careca
Novorizontino
🔄
60'
Gilberto ↔ Pablo Dyego
Londrina
🔄
60'
Vitinho Mota ↔ Rai Nascimento
Londrina
🔄
74'
Tarik ↔ Murilo Sousa
Londrina
🔄
76'
Robson ↔ Carlao
Novorizontino
⚽
80'
Carlao · Assist: Nicolas Careca
Novorizontino
🔄
82'
Matheus Bianqui ↔ Leo Naldi
Novorizontino
🔄
82'
Luis Oyama ↔ Juninho
Novorizontino
🟨
83'
Paulinho Moccelin
Londrina
🔄
89'
Romulo ↔ Vinicius Paiva
Novorizontino

Londrina vs Novorizontino Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 96%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
96%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Londrina Win 46.4%
Draw 4%
Novorizontino Win 49.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Londrina1.2
Novorizontino1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Londrina Londrina
WWDLW
26 GF / 27 GA
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WLDWL
28 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
1.47
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
0.95
10
BTTS Yes
9
12
Over 2.5
10
3.74
Shots on Goal
4.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Londrina Londrina 19 matches
Novorizontino Novorizontino 19 matches
Londrina Statistic Novorizontino
5 Wins 8
5 Draws 6
9 Losses 5
26 Goals For 28
27 Goals Against 18
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 0.95
10 BTTS Yes 9
14 Over 1.5 13
12 Over 2.5 10
7 Over 3.5 4
4 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 5
3.74 Shots On Goal 4.68
12.37 Total Shots 14.16
5.42 Corners 5.21
45.2% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Novorizontino's more proactive style and Londrina's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Novorizontino. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Novorizontino carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 30 points while Londrina sit 16 on 20, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Londrina expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Novorizontino in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Novorizontino having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Londrina Analysis

Londrina sit 16 with 20 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats with a 25:25 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Bruno Santos (4 goals), Iago Teles (2 goals), Lucas Marques (1 goals), with creative support from Bruno Santos (3 assists), Iago Teles (1 assists), Lucas Marques (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Novorizontino Analysis

Novorizontino sit 6 with 30 points after 18 league matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 28:17 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Robson (5 goals), Rômulo (2 goals), Tavinho (2 goals), with creative support from Rômulo (5 assists), Robson (2 assists), Juninho (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Londrina won 2 times, Novorizontino won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:10 from Londrina's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Londrina 4-1-4-1 / Novorizontino 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Londrina wins 2, draws 1, Novorizontino wins 3

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 18 8 8 48:33 15 62
D W D W W
2 34 17 10 7 61:30 31 61
D W W W D
3 34 17 10 7 41:23 18 61
D D W W W
4 34 16 12 6 41:29 12 60
W D W D D
5 34 17 8 9 35:28 7 59
W W L W W
6 34 14 12 8 42:32 10 54
D D L W W
7 34 15 7 12 51:48 3 52
L D W L W
8 34 13 12 9 45:37 8 51
L D W W L
9 33 14 6 13 34:40 -6 48
W W L L W
10 34 13 9 12 44:46 -2 48
L L L L D
11 33 11 14 8 32:26 6 47
L D W L W
12 34 12 10 12 46:37 9 46
L D L W D
13 34 12 8 14 38:38 0 44
W W W L W
14 34 10 14 10 40:39 1 44
D D L L D
15 34 11 10 13 37:42 -5 43
D L W W D
16 33 11 9 13 39:42 -3 42
L L D W L
17 34 10 7 17 33:43 -10 37
D W W L L
18 33 7 8 18 42:49 -7 29
D L L L L
19 34 5 5 24 22:54 -32 20
W L L L L
20 34 3 5 26 19:74 -55 14
D L L L L
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