URUGUAY PRIMERA DIVISIóN - APERTURA
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Belvedere
Referee: G. Tejera
Liverpool Montevideo
Match Timeline
Danubio
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
58'
F. Martinez
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
59'
E. Cabrera ↔ S. Fernandez
Danubio
🔄
61'
D. Zabala ↔ R. M. Degregorio
Liverpool Montevideo
🟥
67'
Sebastián Fernández
Danubio
71'
R. M. Degregorio
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
75'
L. Sosa ↔ M. Ferreira
Danubio
🔄
75'
E. Femia ↔ A. Velazquez
Danubio
🔄
75'
S. Rodriguez ↔ N. Azambuja
Danubio
🔄
76'
F. Martinez ↔ M. Mir
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
76'
R. Bentancourt ↔ F. Barcelo
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
85'
I. Rossi ↔ F. Balatti
Danubio
86'
F. Barcelo
Liverpool Montevideo
🟨
90+3'
Martín Rabuñal
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
90'
N. Garayalde ↔ F. Perdomo
Liverpool Montevideo
🔄
90'
K. Amaro ↔ R. Machado
Liverpool Montevideo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 35.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 36.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
35.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
36.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Liverpool Montevideo Win 33.1%
Draw 31.3%
Danubio Win 35.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Liverpool Montevideo1.24
Danubio1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo
WWDLW
18 GF / 19 GA
Danubio Danubio
WLDWL
17 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.31
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1.31
8
BTTS Yes
8
6
Over 2.5
6
3.5
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Liverpool Montevideo Liverpool Montevideo 15 matches
Danubio Danubio 13 matches
Liverpool Montevideo Statistic Danubio
4 Wins 4
6 Draws 6
5 Losses 3
18 Goals For 17
19 Goals Against 17
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.31
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1.31
8 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 11
6 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 4
5 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 3
3.5 Shots On Goal 0
11.5 Total Shots 0
4 Corners 0
56% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Danubio. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Liverpool Montevideo expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Danubio in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Danubio having the stronger overall control.

Liverpool Montevideo Analysis

Liverpool Montevideo are currently 10 in the standings with 17 points from 13 matches. The record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 17:17 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through F. Martinez (5 goals), D. Romero (3 goals), Rubén Bentancourt (3 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Danubio Analysis

Danubio are currently 9 in the standings with 18 points from 13 matches. The record of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 17:17 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Cabrera (4 goals), S. Fernandez (4 goals), Mateo Peralta (3 goals), with creative support from M. Jourdan (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Liverpool Montevideo won 6 times, Danubio won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:16 from Liverpool Montevideo's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (68.7%)
Predicted formations: Liverpool Montevideo 4-2-3-1 / Danubio 4-4-2
H2H summary: Liverpool Montevideo wins 6, draws 4, Danubio wins 5

Lineups

Liverpool Montevideo
Formation
Danubio
M. Campana
M. Campana
E. Castillo
E. Castillo
S. Strasorier
S. Strasorier
D. Romero
D. Romero
S. Laquidain
S. Laquidain
K. Amaro
K. Amaro
D. Zabala
D. Zabala
M. Rabunal
M. Rabunal
N. Garayalde
N. Garayalde
F. Martinez
F. Martinez
R. Bentancourt
R. Bentancourt
M. Goicoechea
M. Goicoechea
E. Velazquez
E. Velazquez
L. Sosa
L. Sosa
J. Pereyra
J. Pereyra
M. Jourdan
M. Jourdan
M. Peralta
M. Peralta
E. Femia
E. Femia
C. Mayada
C. Mayada
S. Rodriguez
S. Rodriguez
I. Rossi
I. Rossi
E. Cabrera
E. Cabrera
Liverpool Montevideo 4-4-2
Starting XI
25
M. Campana
G
23
E. Castillo
D
3
S. Strasorier
D
27
D. Romero
D
15
S. Laquidain
D
24
K. Amaro
↓ 90'
M
22
D. Zabala
↓ 61'
M
20
M. Rabunal
🟨 90+3'
M
5
N. Garayalde
↓ 90'
M
7
F. Martinez
⚽ 58' ↓ 76'
F
11
R. Bentancourt
↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
1
M. Bernatene
G
4
F. Perdomo
↑ 90'
D
6
S. Milano
M
18
A. Cayetano
D
8
M. Mir
↑ 76'
M
34
K. Lewis
D
9
R. Machado
↑ 90'
F
10
R. M. Degregorio
⚽ 71' ↑ 61'
F
17
G. de Mello
M
31
F. Barcelo
⚽ 86' ↑ 76'
F
Danubio 4-5-1
Starting XI
1
M. Goicoechea
G
2
E. Velazquez
D
6
L. Sosa
↓ 75'
D
3
J. Pereyra
D
29
M. Jourdan
D
10
M. Peralta
M
28
E. Femia
↓ 75'
M
18
C. Mayada
M
8
S. Rodriguez
↓ 75'
M
16
I. Rossi
↓ 85'
M
7
E. Cabrera
↓ 59'
F
Substitutes
32
K. Martinez
G
26
A. Montana
M
33
D. Garcia
40
F. Balatti
↑ 85'
D
5
J. Millan
M
20
M. Ferreira
↑ 75'
F
17
A. Velazquez
↑ 75'
M
25
F. Cabrera
21
N. Azambuja
↑ 75'
F
30
S. Fernandez
↑ 59' 🟥 67'
F
Last matches: Liverpool Montevideo
08.06.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
01.06.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
22.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
16.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
1
2
L
08.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Wanderers
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Juventud
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
3
L
13.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
2
0
W
05.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
31.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Progreso
3
3
D
24.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Central Espanol
3
3
D
21.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
0
1
L
16.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Atletico Torque
0
0
D
10.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston River
1
0
W
01.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
2
0
W
25.02.26
CON
Liverpool Montevideo
Independiente Medellin
0
0
D
20.02.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro
1
1
D
18.02.26
CON
Liverpool Montevideo
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
06.02.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Albion FC
2
1
W
Last matches: Danubio
05.07.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
1
1
D
05.06.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
0
0
D
30.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
1
2
L
18.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
3
L
09.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Albion FC
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
12.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Central Espanol
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Atletico Torque
1
1
D
30.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
26.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
1
2
L
16.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Juventud
4
1
W
07.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Penarol
1
1
D
28.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
2
2
D
21.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
0
4
L
15.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
2
0
W
09.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro
1
0
W
08.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Plaza Colonia
2
0
W
02.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
2
1
W
H2H: Liverpool Montevideo vs Danubio
02.05.26
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
3
0
W
03.08.25
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
0
0
D
01.02.25
H2H
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
22.09.24
H2H
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
1
0
L
28.07.24
H2H
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
2
0
L
10.03.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
1
2
L
26.08.23
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
1
0
W
12.02.23
H2H
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
03.09.22
H2H
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
1
1
D
26.02.22
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
0
1
L
07.03.21
H2H
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
0
1
W
10.09.20
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
2
1
W
16.11.19
H2H
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
1
2
W
11.05.19
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
0
5
L
26.08.18
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
3
0
W
Last matches: Liverpool Montevideo
08.06.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
0
0
D
19.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Club Nacional
1
3
L
05.04.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
24.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Central Espanol
3
3
D
16.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Atletico Torque
0
0
D
01.03.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Cerro Largo
2
0
W
18.02.26
CON
Liverpool Montevideo
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
16.11.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
1
2
L
01.11.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Juventud
0
1
L
26.10.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Progreso
3
1
W
11.10.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Racing Montevideo
2
2
D
27.09.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Boston River
2
1
W
13.09.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Penarol
2
2
D
30.08.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Defensor Sporting
2
0
W
16.08.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Wanderers
2
1
W
03.08.25
Pri
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
0
0
D
H2H at home: Liverpool Montevideo
02.05.26
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
3
0
W
03.08.25
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
0
0
D
10.03.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
1
2
L
26.08.23
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
1
0
W
26.02.22
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
0
1
L
10.09.20
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
2
1
W
11.05.19
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
0
5
L
26.08.18
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
3
0
W
Last matches: Danubio
05.06.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
0
0
D
18.05.26
Pri
Danubio
Deportivo Maldonado
1
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Club Nacional
2
1
W
12.04.26
Pri
Danubio
Central Espanol
2
2
D
30.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro Largo
0
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
1
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
Danubio
Penarol
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
0
4
L
09.02.26
Pri
Danubio
Cerro
1
0
W
02.11.25
Pri
Danubio
Racing Montevideo
2
1
W
17.10.25
Pri
Danubio
Boston River
0
0
D
05.10.25
Pri
Danubio
Penarol
0
2
L
19.09.25
Pri
Danubio
Defensor Sporting
1
2
L
06.09.25
Pri
Danubio
Wanderers
2
0
W
24.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Progreso
0
1
L
18.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Cerro Largo
0
1
L
03.08.25
Pri
Danubio
Liverpool Montevideo
0
0
D
H2H away: Danubio
02.05.26
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
3
0
L
03.08.25
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
0
0
D
10.03.24
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
1
2
W
26.08.23
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
1
0
L
26.02.22
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
0
1
W
10.09.20
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
2
1
L
11.05.19
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
0
5
W
26.08.18
H2H
Liverpool Montevideo
Danubio
3
0
L