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ECUADOR › LIGA PRO
15.07.2026 17:00
Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Referee: Eloy Vicente Beltran Moreira, Ecuador
Libertad
Match Timeline
Tecnico Universitario
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
34'
Edwin Mesa
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
46'
J. Majao ↔ A. Castillo
Tecnico Universitario
🟨
49'
Bryan Caicedo
Libertad
🔄
56'
J. Estacio ↔ C. Valencia
Libertad
🔄
63'
G. J. Cortez Casierra ↔ H. Batalla
Libertad
🔄
63'
V. Branda ↔ J. Guisamano
Libertad
🔄
64'
A. Chere ↔ D. Coronel
Libertad
🔄
64'
L. Estupinan ↔ C. Arteaga
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
69'
J. Bravo ↔ X. E. Pineda Arana
Libertad
⚽
72'
Libertad
Libertad
VAR
74'
Jackson Rodríguez
Libertad
🟨
81'
Manuel Lucas
Libertad
🔄
87'
Y. Arce ↔ F. Castillo
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
90+2'
H. Guardia ↔ B. Delgado
Tecnico Universitario
🔄
90+2'
M. Castano ↔ Cordova
Tecnico Universitario
⚽
90'
H. Batalla · Assist: E. Patta
Libertad

Libertad vs Tecnico Universitario Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 66.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 78.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
66.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
78.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Libertad Win 33.6%
Draw 24.6%
Tecnico Universitario Win 41.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Libertad0.98
Tecnico Universitario1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Libertad Libertad
WWDLW
17 GF / 25 GA
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario
WLDWL
19 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
1
1.39
Average Goals Conceded
1.05
10
BTTS Yes
8
9
Over 2.5
7
3.33
Shots on Goal
4.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Libertad Libertad 18 matches
Tecnico Universitario Tecnico Universitario 19 matches
Libertad Statistic Tecnico Universitario
4 Wins 7
6 Draws 2
8 Losses 10
17 Goals For 19
25 Goals Against 20
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.39 Avg Goals Conceded 1.05
10 BTTS Yes 8
12 Over 1.5 12
9 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 4
7 Failed To Score 7
3.33 Shots On Goal 4.11
9.78 Total Shots 12.06
3.5 Corners 4.44
45.2% Ball Possession 41%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Tecnico Universitario. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Libertad have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Libertad expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Tecnico Universitario in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Tecnico Universitario having the stronger overall control.

Libertad Analysis

Libertad approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 18 points from 18 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 17:25 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín (4 goals), G. Cortéz (3 goals), Ivan Zambrano (3 goals), with creative support from G. Cortéz (3 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), Vilinton Germán Branda Merlín (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tecnico Universitario Analysis

So far, Tecnico Universitario have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 23 points from 18 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, while the 19:19 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Mateo Castano (3 goals), Julian Anaya (3 goals), Johan Bocanegra (2 goals), with creative support from Mateo Castano (2 assists), Johan Bocanegra (2 assists), Luis Estupiñan (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Libertad won 4 times, Tecnico Universitario won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:9 from Libertad's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.4%)
Predicted formations: Libertad 5-3-2 / Tecnico Universitario 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Libertad wins 4, draws 2, Tecnico Universitario wins 2

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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