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BULGARIA › FIRST LEAGUE
20.09.2026 17:30
Vivacom Arena Georgi Asparuhov

Levski Sofia vs Ludogorets Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.3%
Odds 2.11
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 2.08
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.3%
2.11 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
2.08 ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
2.60 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Levski Sofia Win 57.3%
Draw 3.7%
Ludogorets Win 39%
Expected Goals (xG)
Levski Sofia1.69
Ludogorets1.49
Recent Form (Last 5)
Levski Sofia Levski Sofia
WWDLW
53 GF / 17 GA
Ludogorets Ludogorets
WLDWL
37 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.96
Average Goals Scored
2.06
0.63
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
10
BTTS Yes
12
15
Over 2.5
10
3.72
Shots on Goal
4.55

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Levski Sofia Levski Sofia 27 matches
Ludogorets Ludogorets 18 matches
Levski Sofia Statistic Ludogorets
17 Wins 12
7 Draws 5
3 Losses 1
53 Goals For 37
17 Goals Against 23
1.96 Avg Goals Scored 2.06
0.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
10 BTTS Yes 12
18 Over 1.5 15
15 Over 2.5 10
9 Over 3.5 7
15 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 1
3.72 Shots On Goal 4.55
10.39 Total Shots 11
4.17 Corners 4.18
46.8% Ball Possession 46%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Ludogorets. Levski Sofia come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Levski Sofia expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Ludogorets in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ludogorets having the stronger overall control.

Levski Sofia Analysis

Levski Sofia come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 24 points after 8 matches. The return of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 0 defeats, together with goals at 21:4, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Ludogorets Analysis

Ludogorets approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 20 points after 8 outings. The return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats, together with goals at 14:6, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Levski Sofia won 2 times, Ludogorets won 8 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:19 from Levski Sofia's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.3%)
Predicted formations: Levski Sofia 4-2-3-1 / Ludogorets 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Levski Sofia wins 2, draws 5, Ludogorets wins 8

Standings

A PFG
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 8 1 0 21:4 17 25
D W W W W
2 10 7 3 0 24:7 17 24
D W W D W
3 9 7 2 0 16:7 9 23
W W D D W
4 10 7 1 2 19:10 9 22
W W L W L
5 10 5 2 3 15:12 3 17
D L L W W
6 10 5 1 4 16:14 2 16
W W W L L
7 10 2 5 3 9:8 1 11
L D W L D
8 10 2 4 4 10:15 -5 10
L D D D L
9 10 2 3 5 9:19 -10 9
D D W L W
10 10 2 2 6 8:18 -10 8
L L L D W
11 10 1 4 5 11:18 -7 7
W L D L D
12 10 2 1 7 5:13 -8 7
D L W L L
13 10 1 3 6 11:20 -9 6
D D L L W
14 10 1 2 7 10:19 -9 5
D L L D L
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