ECUADOR LIGA PRO
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Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 73.2%
Odds 1.67
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
73.2%
1.67
BTTS Yes
54.1%
2.00
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
2.03
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.80
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.33
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Leones del Norte Win 23.7%
Draw 3.1%
Independiente del Valle Win 73.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leones del Norte1.01
Independiente del Valle1.74
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WWDLW
26 GF / 25 GA
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WLDWL
74 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.04
Average Goals Scored
2.24
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.97
11
BTTS Yes
16
8
Over 2.5
20
3.84
Shots on Goal
6.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 25 matches
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 33 matches
Leones del Norte Statistic Independiente del Valle
9 Wins 26
8 Draws 2
8 Losses 5
26 Goals For 74
25 Goals Against 32
1.04 Avg Goals Scored 2.24
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.97
11 BTTS Yes 16
18 Over 1.5 27
8 Over 2.5 20
2 Over 3.5 14
9 Clean Sheets 14
7 Failed To Score 4
3.84 Shots On Goal 6.03
12.24 Total Shots 17.26
4.08 Corners 6.06
46.4% Ball Possession 53.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Independiente del Valle's more proactive style and Leones del Norte's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Independiente del Valle look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leones del Norte expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Independiente del Valle in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente del Valle having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Independiente del Valle. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Independiente del Valle carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 64 points while Leones del Norte sit 8 on 32, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Leones del Norte Analysis

So far, Leones del Norte have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 32 points from 24 matches. The record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 24:25 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Juan Anangonó (5 goals), Darío Pazmiño (3 goals), Emiliano Griffa (3 goals), with creative support from Jonathan Arroyo (3 assists), Darío Pazmiño (2 assists), Elián Pepinós (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 64 points after 25 matches. The return of 21 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 61:24, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Matías Perello (6 goals), Emerson Pata (6 goals), Djorkaeff Reasco (5 goals), with creative support from Arón Rodríguez (5 assists), Juan Viacava (4 assists), Djorkaeff Reasco (3 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 11 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Leones del Norte won 0 times, Independiente del Valle won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:2 from Leones del Norte's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.9%)
Predicted formations: Leones del Norte 4-2-3-1 / Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Leones del Norte wins 0, draws 0, Independiente del Valle wins 1
Last matches: Leones del Norte
15.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
2
0
W
08.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
3
L
02.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
26.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
1
1
D
18.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
15.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
10.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
Last matches: Independiente del Valle
19.08.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Deportes Tolima
1
0
W
15.08.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Delfin SC
3
2
W
08.08.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
02.08.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
26.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
3
2
W
22.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Tecnico Universitario
3
0
W
20.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Emelec
6
1
W
16.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
3
0
W
11.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Mushuc Runa SC
4
1
W
04.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Manta FC
4
0
W
31.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Guayaquil City FC
4
2
W
27.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
1
0
W
23.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
2
3
L
20.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
4
1
W
16.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Macara
3
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
06.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
UCV
0
2
L
01.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
3
2
W
28.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
3
2
W
25.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
2
1
W
H2H: Leones del Norte vs Independiente del Valle
25.04.26
H2H
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
2
1
L
Last matches: Leones del Norte
02.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
23.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
1
1
D
15.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
10.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
1
1
D
Last matches: Independiente del Valle
19.08.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Deportes Tolima
1
0
W
08.08.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
2
0
W
26.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
3
2
W
16.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
3
0
W
11.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Mushuc Runa SC
4
1
W
31.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Guayaquil City FC
4
2
W
16.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Macara
3
0
W
06.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
UCV
0
2
L
01.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
3
2
W
28.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
3
2
W
22.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Delfin SC
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Deportivo Cuenca
3
2
W
09.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
0
0
D
22.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
20.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Emelec
0
2
L
03.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Manta FC
2
0
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.67
Draw 3.75
Home 4.87
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.25
Draw 2.22
Home 5.57
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 1.75 1.41
Over 2.0 1.53
Over 2.25 1.79
Over 2.5 2.03
Over 2.75 2.34
Over 3.5 3.56
Under 1.5 3.17
Under 1.75 2.82
Under 2.0 2.45
Under 2.25 2.01
Under 2.5 1.76
Under 2.75 1.57
Under 3.5 1.27
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.67
Draw 3.70
Home 4.75
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.25
Draw 2.20
Home 5.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.05
Draw 2.40
Home 4.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 2.5 2.00
Over 3.5 3.50
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 17.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.25
Under 2.5 1.80
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.66
Draw 3.67
Home 5.13
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.20
Draw 2.08
Home 5.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 1.97
Draw 2.46
Home 4.90
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.03
Over 1.25 1.16
Over 1.5 1.29
Over 1.75 1.38
Over 2.0 1.50
Over 2.25 1.75
Over 2.5 2.01
Over 2.75 2.31
Over 3.0 2.84
Over 3.25 3.19
Over 3.5 3.54
Over 3.75 4.43
Over 4.0 6.27
Over 4.25 6.65
Over 4.5 7.10
Over 5.5 14.00
Over 6.5 34.00
Under 0.5 8.60
Under 0.75 8.50
Under 1.0 7.85
Under 1.25 4.26
Under 1.5 3.11
Under 1.75 2.73
Under 2.0 2.40
Under 2.25 1.94
Under 2.5 1.75
Under 2.75 1.57
Under 3.0 1.37
Under 3.25 1.29
Under 3.5 1.23
Under 3.75 1.15
Under 4.0 1.06
Under 4.25 1.05
Under 4.5 1.04
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 1.68
Draw 3.50
Home 4.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.28
Draw 2.20
Home 5.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.08
Draw 2.48
Home 4.50
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.0 1.49
Over 2.25 1.73
Over 2.5 1.96
Over 2.75 2.23
Over 3.0 2.75
Over 3.25 3.05
Over 3.5 3.35
Over 3.75 4.10
Over 4.0 5.60
Over 4.25 5.80
Over 4.5 6.10
Under 1.5 3.05
Under 2.0 2.35
Under 2.25 1.94
Under 2.5 1.72
Under 2.75 1.55
Under 3.0 1.38
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.26
Under 3.75 1.18
Under 4.0 1.10
Under 4.25 1.09
Under 4.5 1.08

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 21 1 3 61:24 37 64
W W W W W
2 25 12 6 7 33:25 8 42
D W W W W
3 25 12 5 8 29:26 3 41
L W W L L
4 25 11 7 7 40:22 18 40
D L W D W
5 25 11 5 9 24:20 4 38
W L W W D
6 25 9 9 7 25:20 5 36
D L D L L
7 25 9 8 8 26:25 1 35
W L D W D
8 25 9 7 9 28:29 -1 34
D W W W W
9 25 8 8 9 32:34 -2 32
D W W L D
10 25 9 4 12 22:32 -10 31
L L L W L
11 25 7 9 9 22:27 -5 30
D D L D D
12 25 8 6 11 30:36 -6 30
W D L L W
13 25 8 8 9 21:29 -8 29
W D L L D
14 25 8 2 15 21:34 -13 26
L L L W L
15 25 6 6 13 17:27 -10 24
L D L L L
16 25 4 5 16 11:32 -21 17
L W L L D
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs