28.09.2026 18:30
Estadio Municipal de Butarque
Referee: A. Ojaos
Leganes
Match Timeline
Castellón
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Álvaro Morata
Leganes
⚽
24'
Israel Suero Fernández
Castellón
🟨
28'
Íñigo Córdoba
Castellón
🟨
30'
Naim Garcia
Leganes
⚽
47'
Adam Jakobsen · Assist: Israel Suero Fernández
Castellón
🔄
56'
Alejandro San Cristobal Sanchez ↔ Dani Rodriguez
Leganes
🔄
56'
Zico Buurmeester ↔ Suleiman El Haddadi Mohamed
Leganes
🔄
56'
Juanjo Nieto ↔ Lucas Alcázar
Castellón
🔄
56'
Íñigo Córdoba ↔ Pablo Santiago
Castellón
🟨
58'
Marvelous Antolín Garzón
Leganes
🔄
71'
Adam Jakobsen ↔ Francisco Castillo
Castellón
🔄
71'
Marvelous Antolín Garzón ↔ Rubén Pulido
Leganes
🔄
71'
Patrick Soko ↔ Unax del Cura
Leganes
🔄
77'
Álvaro Morata ↔ Álex Millán
Leganes
🔄
81'
Ousmane Camara ↔ Álvaro García Arana
Castellón
🔄
81'
Israel Suero Fernández ↔ antonio gala
Castellón
🟥
82'
Jeremy Mellot
Castellón
⚽
84'
Álex Millán
Leganes
🟨
89'
Yassine Kechta
Leganes
🟨
90+1'
Rubén Pulido
Leganes
🟨
90+5'
Unax del Cura
Leganes

Leganes vs Castellón Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 96.3%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds 2.00
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 1.93
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
96.3%
1.30 ▥
BTTS No
50.8%
2.00 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
1.93 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.6%
1.30 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.00 ▥
Correct Score 3-0
-
34.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Leganes Win 51%
Draw 3.7%
Castellón Win 45.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leganes1
Castellón1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leganes Leganes
WWDLW
15 GF / 13 GA
Castellón Castellón
WLDWL
20 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.67
0.87
Average Goals Conceded
1
5
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
7
4.5
Shots on Goal
5.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leganes Leganes 15 matches
Castellón Castellón 12 matches
Leganes Statistic Castellón
6 Wins 7
5 Draws 3
4 Losses 2
15 Goals For 20
13 Goals Against 12
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
0.87 Avg Goals Conceded 1
5 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 9
5 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 6
6 Failed To Score 3
4.5 Shots On Goal 5.33
10.33 Total Shots 14.67
2.67 Corners 5.67
44% Ball Possession 62.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leganes expected to line up in 3-2-4-1 and Castellón in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Castellón having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Castellón. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Castellón look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Castellón carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 16 points while Leganes sit 7 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Leganes Analysis

Leganes are currently 7 in the standings with 11 points from 6 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 6:5 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Naim García (2 goals), Ismaël Gharbi (2 goals), P. Soko (1 goals), with creative support from Naim García (1 assists), Ismaël Gharbi (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Castellón Analysis

Castellón approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 16 points after 6 outings. They have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, with a 12:2 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Ousmane Camara (4 goals), Pablo Santiago (2 goals), Barri (1 goals), with creative support from Ousmane Camara (1 assists), Pablo Santiago (1 assists), Barri (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Leganes won 0 times, Castellón won 3 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:5 from Leganes's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.25 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.3%)
Predicted formations: Leganes 3-2-4-1 / Castellón 4-4-2
H2H summary: Leganes wins 0, draws 1, Castellón wins 3

Standings

Segunda
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 7 0 1 18:7 11 21
W W W W W
2 8 6 2 0 15:3 12 20
D W W W W
3 8 6 0 2 13:5 8 18
W W W W W
4 8 4 2 2 14:8 6 14
D W W L W
5 8 4 2 2 8:3 5 14
D L W W D
6 8 4 2 2 12:9 3 14
L W W W D
7 8 3 4 1 8:6 2 13
D D W L W
8 8 4 1 3 8:8 0 13
W L W L L
9 8 3 2 3 13:13 0 11
W L L D L
10 8 3 2 3 8:8 0 11
L W L W D
11 8 3 2 3 12:13 -1 11
D L L W D
12 8 3 2 3 10:12 -2 11
L D L W D
13 8 3 2 3 6:11 -5 11
L L W L D
14 8 2 3 3 8:11 -3 9
D W D L W
15 8 3 0 5 13:18 -5 9
W L W L L
16 8 2 2 4 11:13 -2 8
L L L W D
17 8 2 2 4 8:10 -2 8
W L L W D
18 8 2 2 4 10:14 -4 8
L D L L W
19 8 1 4 3 11:10 1 7
W D L L L
20 8 2 1 5 12:15 -3 7
D W L L L
21 8 1 2 5 7:18 -11 5
D W D L L
22 8 0 1 7 5:15 -10 1
L L L D L
Promotion - LaLiga
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation