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ITALY › SERIE A
11.10.2026 13:00
Stadio Olimpico

Lazio vs Monza Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.1%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Lazio Win 71.1%
Draw 4.4%
Monza Win 24.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lazio2.32
Monza1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lazio Lazio
WWDLW
33 GF / 13 GA
Monza Monza
WLDWL
26 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
2.54
Average Goals Scored
2
1
Average Goals Conceded
2
6
BTTS Yes
10
8
Over 2.5
10
3.67
Shots on Goal
6.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lazio Lazio 13 matches
Monza Monza 13 matches
Lazio Statistic Monza
10 Wins 5
2 Draws 3
1 Losses 5
33 Goals For 26
13 Goals Against 26
2.54 Avg Goals Scored 2
1 Avg Goals Conceded 2
6 BTTS Yes 10
11 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 10
5 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 0
3.67 Shots On Goal 6.14
14.17 Total Shots 16.14
4.83 Corners 5
50.3% Ball Possession 47.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Lazio's more proactive style and Monza's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Lazio arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 13 points compared to Monza in 16 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Monza. Lazio come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lazio expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Monza in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Monza having the stronger overall control.

Lazio Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 13 points from 5 games, Lazio bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats plus a goal balance of 8:3, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Davide Frattesi (3 goals), Tijjani Noslin (2 goals), Mattia Zaccagni (1 goals), with creative support from Mattia Zaccagni (2 assists), Nuno Tavares (2 assists), Danilho Doekhi (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Monza Analysis

Monza approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 4 points from 5 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with a 8:12 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Gustavo Varela (4 goals), Ricardo Mangas (1 goals), Andrea Colpani (1 goals), with creative support from Ricardo Mangas (2 assists), Samuele Birindelli (2 assists), Ebenezer Akinsanmiro (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Lazio won 4 times, Monza won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:4 from Lazio's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Lazio 4-3-3 / Monza 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Lazio wins 4, draws 2, Monza wins 0

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 5 4 1 0 14:3 11 13
D W W W W
2 5 4 1 0 15:8 7 13
D W W W W
3
Lazio Home
5 4 1 0 8:3 5 13
W D W W W
4 5 4 0 1 5:2 3 12
W W W L W
5 5 3 2 0 10:4 6 11
W D D W W
6 5 3 1 1 9:4 5 10
W D W W L
7 5 3 1 1 8:4 4 10
W L D W W
8 5 3 1 1 9:6 3 10
L W W W D
9 5 2 1 2 7:6 1 7
D W L L W
10 5 2 1 2 9:9 0 7
L W D W L
11 5 2 0 3 5:7 -2 6
L L L W W
12 5 2 0 3 5:10 -5 6
L W L L W
13 5 1 1 3 8:11 -3 4
L L L W D
14 5 1 1 3 5:8 -3 4
D L W L L
15 5 1 1 3 4:7 -3 4
W L D L L
16
Monza Away
5 1 1 3 8:12 -4 4
W L D L L
17 5 1 1 3 6:12 -6 4
D W L L L
18 5 0 2 3 3:6 -3 2
D L D L L
19 5 0 1 4 3:10 -7 1
L D L L L
20 5 0 0 5 4:13 -9 0
L L L L L
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