FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Lahden Stadion
Referee: M. Al-Emara
Lahti
Match Timeline
Ilves
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
A. Belabid
Lahti
11'
A. Belabid · Assist: E. Andersson
Lahti
17'
A. Lindholm · Assist: A. Belabid
Lahti
24'
Erik Andersson
Lahti
🔄
46'
V. Kumpu ↔ S. Baranov
Ilves
🔄
46'
Y. Raap ↔ O. Tiitinen
Ilves
52'
E. Andersson
Lahti
🔄
65'
E. Andersson ↔ D. Heikkinen
Lahti
🟨
69'
Kalle Wallius
Ilves
🔄
69'
M. Stjopin ↔ R. Riski
Ilves
🔄
69'
M. Rale ↔ J. Kanga
Ilves
🔄
69'
T. Hytonen ↔ A. Raymond
Ilves
70'
D. Heikkinen
Lahti
🔄
71'
R. Yapi ↔ O. Koskinen
Lahti
🔄
71'
A. Lindholm ↔ J. Ojanen
Lahti
🔄
76'
C. Montiel ↔ A. Kabashi
Lahti
🔄
76'
N. Gianini Dantas ↔ V. Vehkonen
Lahti
🟨
81'
Tatu Miettunen
Ilves
🟨
86'
Otto Tiitinen
Ilves

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lahti Win 57.9%
Draw 11.1%
Ilves Win 31%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lahti1.25
Ilves1.7
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lahti Lahti
WWDLW
14 GF / 15 GA
Ilves Ilves
WLDWL
26 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
2
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
9
BTTS Yes
8
5
Over 2.5
7
1.88
Shots on Goal
1.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lahti Lahti 12 matches
Ilves Ilves 13 matches
Lahti Statistic Ilves
3 Wins 5
5 Draws 3
4 Losses 5
14 Goals For 26
15 Goals Against 18
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
9 BTTS Yes 8
10 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 6
1 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 1
1.88 Shots On Goal 1.89
6.13 Total Shots 5.22
2.75 Corners 1.78
33.5% Ball Possession 19.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lahti expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Ilves in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Ilves having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Ilves. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Lahti Analysis

From their first 7 matches, Lahti have collected 8 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 6:8 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Sarr (2 goals), Martim Ferreira (2 goals), Neemias Barbosa (1 goals), with creative support from R. Sans (2 assists), Tòfol Montiel (1 assists), D. Heikkinen (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ilves Analysis

From their first 8 matches, Ilves have collected 6 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 11:16 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Stjopin (3 goals), T. Hytonen (3 goals), G. Bamba (1 goals), with creative support from J. Kilo (3 assists), T. Hytonen (1 assists), M. Rale (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Lahti won 4 times, Ilves won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:29 from Lahti's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.93 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.9%)
Predicted formations: Lahti 4-3-3 / Ilves 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Lahti wins 4, draws 4, Ilves wins 6

Lineups

Lahti
Formation
Ilves
O. Maukonen
O. Maukonen
R. Yapi
R. Yapi
N. Gianini Dantas
N. Gianini Dantas
J. Muller
J. Muller
R. Sans
R. Sans
C. Montiel
C. Montiel
Y. Cassubie
Y. Cassubie
E. Andersson
⚽ 2 🎯
E. Andersson
M. Sarr
M. Sarr
A. Lindholm
A. Lindholm
A. Belabid
⚽ 2 🎯
A. Belabid
O. Virtanen
O. Virtanen
V. Kumpu
V. Kumpu
T. Miettunen
T. Miettunen
M. Rale
M. Rale
O. Pettersson
O. Pettersson
Y. Raap
Y. Raap
O. Multala
O. Multala
K. Wallius
K. Wallius
M. Stjopin
M. Stjopin
J. Kilo
J. Kilo
T. Hytonen
T. Hytonen
Lahti 4-3-3
Starting XI
31
O. Maukonen
G
27
R. Yapi
↓ 71'
D
5
N. Gianini Dantas
↓ 76'
D
4
J. Muller
D
3
R. Sans
D
8
C. Montiel
↓ 76'
M
18
Y. Cassubie
M
14
E. Andersson
⚽ 24' ⚽ 52' 🎯 11' ↓ 65'
M
77
M. Sarr
F
9
A. Lindholm
⚽ 17' ↓ 71'
F
17
A. Belabid
⚽ 4' ⚽ 11' 🎯 17'
F
Substitutes
12
A. Hakala
G
10
O. Koskinen
↑ 71'
M
11
Martim Augusto
M
20
J. Ojanen
↑ 71'
M
28
A. Kabashi
↑ 76'
M
6
V. Vehkonen
↑ 76'
D
7
D. Heikkinen
⚽ 70' ↑ 65'
M
25
T. Inkinen
D
44
L. Jarvinen
F
Ilves 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
O. Virtanen
G
24
V. Kumpu
↓ 46'
D
16
T. Miettunen
🟨 81'
D
3
M. Rale
↓ 69'
D
4
O. Pettersson
6
Y. Raap
↓ 46'
D
22
O. Multala
M
13
K. Wallius
🟨 69'
M
8
M. Stjopin
↓ 69'
M
28
J. Kilo
M
9
T. Hytonen
↓ 69'
F
Substitutes
12
F. Krkalic
G
10
R. Riski
↑ 69'
F
30
J. Kanga
↑ 69'
M
23
A. Raymond
↑ 69'
D
17
S. Baranov
↑ 46'
M
20
O. Tiitinen
↑ 46' 🟨 86'
M
Last matches: Lahti
27.06.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
0
0
D
17.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
0
1
L
13.06.26
Vei
Lahti
SJK
2
3
L
23.05.26
Vei
Lahti
KuPS
1
2
L
18.05.26
Vei
Lahti
VPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
04.05.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
2
1
W
18.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
2
L
10.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Lahti
FF Jaro
1
0
W
28.03.26
Fri
Lahti
JIPPO
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Lahti
SJK Akatemia
3
1
W
25.02.26
Fri
Lahti
GrIFK
2
2
D
17.01.26
Fri
Lahti
Haka
1
1
D
Last matches: Ilves
27.06.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
2
2
D
23.06.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
3
4
L
17.06.26
Vei
Ilves
FF Jaro
5
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Ilves
Turku PS
1
0
W
23.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Gnistan
2
0
W
20.05.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
08.05.26
Vei
Ilves
AC Oulu
1
0
W
02.05.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
Ilves
VPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
2
D
11.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
1
3
L
27.03.26
Fri
Ilves
MP
2
0
W
07.03.26
Fri
Ilves
Haka
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
Ilves
Gnistan
1
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
Ilves
Ilves II
10
1
W
31.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
0
5
L
24.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
4
3
W
17.07.25
UEF
Ilves
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
0
D
H2H: Lahti vs Ilves
10.06.26
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
5
2
L
30.05.26
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
5
0
W
29.06.24
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
2
2
D
06.04.24
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
0
0
D
29.03.24
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
0
0
D
21.10.23
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
1
5
L
03.09.23
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
3
2
W
03.06.23
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
2
2
D
09.10.22
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
1
0
L
29.07.22
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
1
1
D
18.06.22
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
3
2
L
19.02.22
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
3
4
W
11.09.21
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
1
0
L
10.06.21
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
3
1
W
22.08.20
H2H
Ilves
Lahti
3
1
L
Last matches: Lahti
23.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
0
0
D
13.06.26
Vei
Lahti
SJK
2
3
L
18.05.26
Vei
Lahti
VPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
25.04.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
2
1
W
18.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
2
L
28.03.26
Fri
Lahti
JIPPO
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Lahti
SJK Akatemia
3
1
W
25.02.26
Fri
Lahti
GrIFK
2
2
D
17.01.26
Fri
Lahti
Haka
1
1
D
H2H at home: Lahti
30.05.26
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
5
0
W
29.06.24
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
2
2
D
21.10.23
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
1
5
L
03.09.23
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
3
2
W
29.07.22
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
1
1
D
10.06.21
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
3
1
W
Last matches: Ilves
23.06.26
Vei
Ilves
KuPS
3
4
L
16.05.26
Vei
Ilves
HJK Helsinki
2
2
D
02.05.26
Vei
Ilves
SJK
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
Ilves
VPS
2
3
L
18.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Mariehamn
2
2
D
11.04.26
Vei
Ilves
Inter Turku
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
Ilves
AZ Alkmaar
0
5
L
10.07.25
UEF
Ilves
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
6
L
H2H away: Ilves
30.05.26
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
5
0
L
29.06.24
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
2
2
D
21.10.23
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
1
5
W
03.09.23
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
3
2
L
29.07.22
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
1
1
D
10.06.21
H2H
Lahti
Ilves
3
1
L

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 8 6 1 27:15 12 30
W W W D D
2 15 8 6 1 23:12 11 30
W D D D D
3 14 8 2 4 20:15 5 26
D L W D W
4 14 6 4 4 25:17 8 22
L W D W W
5 13 5 6 2 17:11 6 21
D W W D L
6 13 5 4 4 19:17 2 19
D D W W W
7 13 5 4 4 15:13 2 19
W D L L W
8
Ilves Away
14 4 4 6 24:27 -3 16
D L W W L
9
Lahti Home
13 3 4 6 15:15 0 13
D D L L W
10 13 2 5 6 15:21 -6 11
D D L W L
11 14 1 5 8 13:31 -18 8
L D L L L
12 13 0 4 9 6:25 -19 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)