ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Laagri kunstmurustaadion
Referee: K. Tohver
Laagri
Match Timeline
Nõmme United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
15'
H. Jarvelaid
Nõmme United
🟨
24'
K. Roomussaar
Laagri
34'
Rudenko Daniil
Laagri
🔄
46'
K. Roomussaar ↔ M. Kelement
Laagri
54'
K. Oostenbrink · Assist: Z. Beglarishvili
Nõmme United
57'
B. Chisala · Assist: Z. Beglarishvili
Nõmme United
🔄
65'
R. Sillamaa ↔ H. Palutaja
Laagri
🔄
65'
K. Eerme ↔ A. Kose
Laagri
🔄
72'
O. Dacosta ↔ A. Truuvaart
Nõmme United
🔄
72'
Y. Morishige ↔ N. Vassiljev
Nõmme United
🔄
72'
H. Jarvelaid ↔ K. Laanelaid
Nõmme United
🔄
80'
B. Chisala ↔ E. Ounapuu
Nõmme United
82'
E. Ounapuu · Assist: Z. Beglarishvili
Nõmme United
🔄
83'
Rudenko Daniil ↔ A. Kaevats
Laagri
🔄
83'
R. Reimaa ↔ M. Kesa
Laagri
🔄
89'
Z. Beglarishvili ↔ K. Matas
Nõmme United

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 66.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
66.5%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Laagri Win 66.5%
Draw 12.8%
Nõmme United Win 20.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Laagri1.95
Nõmme United1.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Laagri Laagri
WWDLW
36 GF / 36 GA
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WLDWL
50 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
2.17
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
2.52
12
BTTS Yes
19
15
Over 2.5
22
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Laagri Laagri 23 matches
Nõmme United Nõmme United 23 matches
Laagri Statistic Nõmme United
10 Wins 9
3 Draws 2
10 Losses 12
36 Goals For 50
36 Goals Against 58
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 2.17
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 2.52
12 BTTS Yes 19
20 Over 1.5 23
15 Over 2.5 22
8 Over 3.5 15
6 Clean Sheets 1
5 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Nõmme United. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nõmme United having the stronger overall control.

Laagri Analysis

Placed 5 with 19 points from 14 outings, Laagri continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 18:23 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through K. Eerme (5 goals), K. Kriis (3 goals), A. Binate (2 goals), with creative support from Rudenko Daniil (6 assists), A. Binate (2 assists), K. Eerme (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nõmme United Analysis

From their first 14 matches, Nõmme United have collected 13 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses with goals at 27:36 reflects poor form . Their attacking weight is carried by A. Frolov (4 goals), O. Dacosta (4 goals), Z. Beglarishvili (4 goals), with creative support from Z. Beglarishvili (4 assists), H. Jarvelaid (4 assists), A. Frolov (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Laagri won 4 times, Nõmme United won 4 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:15 from Laagri's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 4.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.2%)
H2H summary: Laagri wins 4, draws 0, Nõmme United wins 4

Lineups

Laagri
Formation
Nõmme United
J. Vainula
J. Vainula
A. Jarve
A. Jarve
S. Liit
S. Liit
K. Laur
K. Laur
Rudenko Daniil
Rudenko Daniil
R. Reimaa
R. Reimaa
I. Kartau
I. Kartau
R. Sillamaa
R. Sillamaa
K. Roomussaar
K. Roomussaar
K. Kriis
K. Kriis
K. Eerme
K. Eerme
G. Lagus
G. Lagus
R. Chanda
R. Chanda
Y. Morishige
Y. Morishige
M. Palts
M. Palts
S. Merilai
S. Merilai
A. Frolov
A. Frolov
K. Oostenbrink
K. Oostenbrink
H. Jarvelaid
H. Jarvelaid
B. Chisala
B. Chisala
O. Dacosta
O. Dacosta
Z. Beglarishvili
🎯
Z. Beglarishvili
Laagri 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
J. Vainula
4
A. Jarve
15
S. Liit
24
K. Laur
23
Rudenko Daniil
⚽ 34' ↓ 83'
7
R. Reimaa
↓ 83'
5
I. Kartau
13
R. Sillamaa
↓ 65'
66
K. Roomussaar
↓ 46' 🟨 24'
16
K. Kriis
9
K. Eerme
↓ 65'
Substitutes
79
R. Meesit
3
A. Kaevats
↑ 83'
6
H. Palutaja
↑ 65'
11
A. Kose
↑ 65'
17
M. Kelement
↑ 46'
18
I. Bah
21
S. Soo
22
M. Kesa
↑ 83'
32
S. Kerge
47
K. Ennuste
95
S. Suppi
Nõmme United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
G. Lagus
55
R. Chanda
2
Y. Morishige
↓ 72'
6
M. Palts
3
S. Merilai
10
A. Frolov
26
K. Oostenbrink
⚽ 54'
45
H. Jarvelaid
↓ 72' 🟨 15'
11
B. Chisala
⚽ 57' ↓ 80'
16
O. Dacosta
↓ 72'
49
Z. Beglarishvili
🎯 54' 🎯 57' 🎯 82' ↓ 89'
Substitutes
71
G. Purg
91
R. Ortega
8
B. Vain
9
E. Ounapuu
⚽ 82' ↑ 80'
13
A. Truuvaart
↑ 72'
14
N. Vassiljev
↑ 72'
19
I. Krasnov
20
K. Matas
↑ 89'
22
A. Radomskiy
23
K. Laanelaid
↑ 72'
24
G. Kabal
Last matches: Laagri
17.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
13.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
30.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
20.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
16.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
09.05.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
3
L
30.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
0
5
L
25.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
0
W
22.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
18.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
08.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
2
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
2
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
07.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
2
1
W
28.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Metta / LU
1
5
L
20.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Mārupe
4
0
W
14.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Riga Mariners
4
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Valmiera / BSS
2
1
W
Last matches: Nõmme United
17.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
2
1
W
29.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
20.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
2
L
15.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
2
3
L
02.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
3
2
W
25.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
7
L
18.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
5
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
1
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
21.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
2
3
L
14.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
7
1
W
07.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Viimsi
5
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Tallinn
3
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
3
D
01.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
H2H: Laagri vs Nõmme United
20.06.26
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
1
3
L
18.04.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
W
30.10.25
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
0
1
L
14.08.24
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
3
0
W
22.10.22
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
5
1
W
04.09.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
4
1
L
28.04.22
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
4
2
W
10.04.22
H2H
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
2
L
Last matches: Laagri
13.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
30.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
25.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
0
W
22.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
08.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
22.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
2
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Mārupe
4
0
W
14.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Riga Mariners
4
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Valmiera / BSS
2
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
Laagri
Tartu Welco
3
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
Laagri
PK-35
1
1
D
H2H at home: Laagri
20.06.26
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
1
3
L
30.10.25
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
0
1
L
14.08.24
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
3
0
W
22.10.22
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
5
1
W
28.04.22
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
4
2
W
Last matches: Nõmme United
13.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
2
1
W
20.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
2
L
15.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
1
3
L
02.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
3
2
W
22.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
7
L
08.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
1
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
07.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Viimsi
5
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
3
D
24.01.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
4
3
W
18.01.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
4
2
W
H2H away: Nõmme United
20.06.26
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
1
3
W
30.10.25
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
0
1
W
14.08.24
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
3
0
L
22.10.22
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
5
1
L
28.04.22
H2H
Laagri
Nõmme United
4
2
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4 18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga