ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Kuressaare Linnastaadion
Referee: T. Uprus
Kuressaare
Match Timeline
Vaprus
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
29'
M. Villota
Vaprus
🟨
32'
M. Lipp
Vaprus
57'
M. Limberg · Assist: K. Aloe
Vaprus
🟨
60'
H. Valja
Vaprus
🟨
68'
S. Sinilaid
Kuressaare
🔄
69'
E. Demidov ↔ G. Roivassepp
Kuressaare
🔄
74'
S. Prunn ↔ R. Saar
Kuressaare
🔄
74'
S. Sinilaid ↔ M. Leivategija
Kuressaare
🔄
79'
V. Vallik ↔ J. Poder
Vaprus
🔄
79'
M. Limberg ↔ S. Viidas
Vaprus
🟨
80'
T. Pajo
Vaprus
🟨
85'
J. Sild
Vaprus
🔄
88'
M. Villota ↔ S. Aer
Vaprus
🔄
90+1'
T. Pajo ↔ M. Seppik
Vaprus

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 70.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 78.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
70.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
78.3%
-
Probability Distribution
Kuressaare Win 72.9%
Draw 3.9%
Vaprus Win 23.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kuressaare1.89
Vaprus2.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kuressaare Kuressaare
WWDLW
20 GF / 31 GA
Vaprus Vaprus
WLDWL
25 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.92
2.58
Average Goals Conceded
2.23
8
BTTS Yes
7
9
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kuressaare Kuressaare 12 matches
Vaprus Vaprus 13 matches
Kuressaare Statistic Vaprus
4 Wins 3
2 Draws 2
6 Losses 8
20 Goals For 25
31 Goals Against 29
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.92
2.58 Avg Goals Conceded 2.23
8 BTTS Yes 7
11 Over 1.5 12
9 Over 2.5 9
7 Over 3.5 6
1 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Vaprus. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Vaprus having the stronger overall control. Kuressaare arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 9 points compared to Vaprus in 10 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Kuressaare Analysis

Kuressaare approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 9 points from 7 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 7:13, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. Kivi (3 goals), R. Talu (2 goals), T. Jurisoo (2 goals), with creative support from R. Talu (2 assists), E. Demidov (1 assists), D. Andreas (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vaprus Analysis

With 4 points from 7 games and a place of 10, Vaprus still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 6:17, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through H. Valja (3 goals), S. Viidas (3 goals), with creative support from M. Lepik (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kuressaare won 5 times, Vaprus won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:29 from Kuressaare's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)
H2H summary: Kuressaare wins 5, draws 2, Vaprus wins 8

Lineups

Kuressaare
Formation
Vaprus
K. Nomm
K. Nomm
J. Vahermagi
J. Vahermagi
R. Piil
R. Piil
M. Lukka
M. Lukka
S. Prunn
S. Prunn
S. Sinilaid
S. Sinilaid
D. Andreas
D. Andreas
E. Demidov
E. Demidov
R. Talu
R. Talu
T. Jurisoo
T. Jurisoo
A. Kivi
A. Kivi
O. Nomm
O. Nomm
M. Villota
M. Villota
M. Lipp
M. Lipp
K. Aloe
🎯
K. Aloe
J. Sild
J. Sild
M. Villota
M. Villota
H. Valja
H. Valja
V. Vallik
V. Vallik
T. Pajo
T. Pajo
M. Limberg
M. Limberg
M. Lepik
M. Lepik
Kuressaare 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
31
K. Nomm
68
J. Vahermagi
36
R. Piil
21
M. Lukka
27
S. Prunn
↓ 74'
5
S. Sinilaid
↓ 74' 🟨 68'
8
D. Andreas
77
E. Demidov
↓ 69'
7
R. Talu
11
T. Jurisoo
10
A. Kivi
Substitutes
22
S. Ristna
13
A. Visse
17
G. Roivassepp
↑ 69'
18
M. Dzemesjuk
23
R. Saar
↑ 74'
25
J. Lonks
28
R. Lukas
37
M. Leivategija
↑ 74'
44
O. Joost
Vaprus 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
16
O. Nomm
4
M. Villota
28
M. Lipp
🟨 32'
15
K. Aloe
🎯 57'
90
J. Sild
🟨 85'
24
M. Villota
↓ 88' 🟨 29'
20
H. Valja
🟨 60'
7
V. Vallik
↓ 79'
8
T. Pajo
↓ 90+1' 🟨 80'
42
M. Limberg
⚽ 57' ↓ 79'
22
M. Lepik
Substitutes
1
H. Vainu
3
K. Rand
5
S. Aer
↑ 88'
9
J. Poder
↑ 79'
10
S. Viidas
↑ 79'
11
K. Kauber
19
A. Korre
43
M. Seppik
↑ 90+1'
47
S. Kolvart
86
R. Roosson
Last matches: Kuressaare
26.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
13.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
31.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
W
17.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
08.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
0
1
L
02.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
25.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
2
L
18.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
07.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
03.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
0
1
L
21.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
4
L
14.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
3
2
W
08.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
2
L
21.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
14.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Tallinna Kalev
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
3
3
D
31.01.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
9
L
Last matches: Vaprus
26.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
16.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
2
1
W
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Tallinna Kalev
6
0
W
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
H2H: Kuressaare vs Vaprus
26.06.26
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
L
21.04.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
31.01.26
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
L
21.10.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
0
1
W
20.07.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
1
W
01.06.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
2
1
L
18.04.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
1
0
W
01.02.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
2
L
06.10.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
3
1
L
28.07.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
1
1
D
28.05.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
2
D
17.03.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
3
2
L
11.11.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
1
0
W
17.09.23
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
3
1
L
03.05.23
H2H
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
2
W
Last matches: Kuressaare
16.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
20.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
W
17.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
02.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
03.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
0
1
L
14.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
3
2
W
21.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
14.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Tallinna Kalev
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
3
3
D
H2H at home: Kuressaare
21.04.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
20.07.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
1
W
18.04.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
1
0
W
01.02.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
2
L
28.07.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
1
1
D
28.05.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
2
D
11.11.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
1
0
W
Last matches: Vaprus
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
16.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
2
1
W
26.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
08.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Tallinna Kalev
6
0
W
24.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
3
L
H2H away: Vaprus
21.04.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
W
20.07.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
1
L
18.04.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
1
0
L
01.02.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
2
W
28.07.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
1
1
D
28.05.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
2
D
11.11.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Vaprus
1
0
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4 18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga