ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Kuressaare Linnastaadion
Referee: K. Kaivoja
Kuressaare
Match Timeline
Trans Narva
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
38'
M. Velijev
Trans Narva
🟨
41'
M. Velijev
Trans Narva
🔄
46'
A. Skinjov ↔ S. Burjanadze
Trans Narva
🔄
61'
R. Lukas ↔ G. Roivassepp
Kuressaare
🔄
61'
D. Poliakov ↔ E. Zuravljov
Trans Narva
🟨
66'
S. Burjanadze
Trans Narva
🔄
75'
A. Gero ↔ J. Doke
Trans Narva
🟨
77'
A. Filatov
Trans Narva
🟨
80'
G. Roivassepp
Kuressaare
🟨
87'
S. Agaptsev
Trans Narva
🔄
88'
E. Demidov ↔ A. Visse
Kuressaare
🔄
90+1'
A. Ivanyushin ↔ V. Kudriashov
Trans Narva

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.4%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.4%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 3-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kuressaare Win 79.4%
Draw 10.3%
Trans Narva Win 10.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kuressaare1.76
Trans Narva1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kuressaare Kuressaare
WWDLW
28 GF / 43 GA
Trans Narva Trans Narva
WLDWL
23 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1
2.15
Average Goals Conceded
2.3
13
BTTS Yes
12
13
Over 2.5
17
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kuressaare Kuressaare 20 matches
Trans Narva Trans Narva 23 matches
Kuressaare Statistic Trans Narva
6 Wins 4
3 Draws 4
11 Losses 15
28 Goals For 23
43 Goals Against 53
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1
2.15 Avg Goals Conceded 2.3
13 BTTS Yes 12
17 Over 1.5 20
13 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 7
1 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 8
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Trans Narva. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Trans Narva having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Kuressaare Analysis

So far, Kuressaare have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 13 points from 14 matches. The record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 14:24 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Kivi (4 goals), E. Demidov (2 goals), J. Vahermagi (2 goals), with creative support from R. Talu (3 assists), R. Piil (2 assists), E. Demidov (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Trans Narva Analysis

So far, Trans Narva have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 9 points from 14 matches. The record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 10:37 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Gero (4 goals), S. Agaptsev (2 goals), C. Campagna (1 goals), with creative support from D. Poliakov (3 assists), A. Ivanyushin (2 assists), S. Agaptsev (1 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kuressaare won 8 times, Trans Narva won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:11 from Kuressaare's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (89.7%)
H2H summary: Kuressaare wins 8, draws 4, Trans Narva wins 3

Lineups

Kuressaare
Formation
Trans Narva
K. Nomm
K. Nomm
R. Saar
R. Saar
R. Piil
R. Piil
M. Lukka
M. Lukka
S. Prunn
S. Prunn
S. Sinilaid
S. Sinilaid
D. Andreas
D. Andreas
E. Demidov
E. Demidov
R. Lukas
R. Lukas
T. Jurisoo
T. Jurisoo
A. Kivi
A. Kivi
D. Pareiko
D. Pareiko
A. Skinjov
A. Skinjov
C. Campagna
C. Campagna
Eriks Santos
Eriks Santos
A. Filatov
A. Filatov
G. Slein
G. Slein
S. Agaptsev
S. Agaptsev
M. Velijev
M. Velijev
D. Poliakov
D. Poliakov
A. Ivanyushin
A. Ivanyushin
A. Gero
A. Gero
Kuressaare 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
31
K. Nomm
23
R. Saar
36
R. Piil
21
M. Lukka
27
S. Prunn
5
S. Sinilaid
8
D. Andreas
77
E. Demidov
↓ 88'
28
R. Lukas
↓ 61'
11
T. Jurisoo
10
A. Kivi
Substitutes
22
S. Ristna
13
A. Visse
↑ 88'
17
G. Roivassepp
↑ 61' 🟨 80'
18
M. Dzemesjuk
25
J. Lonks
44
O. Joost
70
J. Vahermagi
72
R. Lohmus
80
R. Tarkmeel
Trans Narva 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
27
D. Pareiko
17
A. Skinjov
↓ 46'
5
C. Campagna
12
Eriks Santos
14
A. Filatov
🟨 77'
6
G. Slein
8
S. Agaptsev
🟨 87'
7
M. Velijev
🟨 41'
39
D. Poliakov
↓ 61'
4
A. Ivanyushin
↓ 90+1'
10
A. Gero
↓ 75'
Substitutes
1
M. Zahharov
9
J. Doke
↑ 75'
16
S. Kondrattsev
22
E. Zuravljov
↑ 61'
25
S. Burjanadze
↑ 46' 🟨 66'
29
V. Kudriashov
↑ 90+1'
Last matches: Kuressaare
26.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
13.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
31.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
W
17.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
08.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
0
1
L
02.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
25.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
2
L
21.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
18.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
07.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
03.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
0
1
L
21.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
4
L
14.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
3
2
W
08.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
2
L
21.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
14.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Tallinna Kalev
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
3
3
D
31.01.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
9
L
Last matches: Trans Narva
21.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
0
1
L
13.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
2
L
30.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
0
3
L
20.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
09.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
2
L
01.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
0
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
7
L
22.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
6
L
18.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
5
L
07.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
3
0
W
03.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
2
L
25.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tartu Welco
2
2
D
21.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
2
2
D
15.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
0
W
11.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Super Nova
1
3
L
H2H: Kuressaare vs Trans Narva
16.06.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
18.04.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
W
21.02.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
20.09.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
05.07.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
3
2
L
27.04.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
1
W
08.03.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
2
W
08.02.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
1
D
09.11.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
2
W
24.08.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
1
L
19.06.24
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
1
W
21.04.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
5
0
W
28.10.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
1
0
W
13.08.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
2
0
L
27.06.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
3
0
W
Last matches: Kuressaare
20.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
W
17.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
02.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
21.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
11.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
03.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
0
1
L
14.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
3
2
W
21.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
14.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Tallinna Kalev
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
3
3
D
H2H at home: Kuressaare
16.06.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
21.02.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
20.09.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
27.04.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
1
W
24.08.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
1
L
21.04.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
5
0
W
28.10.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
1
0
W
27.06.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
3
0
W
Last matches: Trans Narva
21.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
0
1
L
30.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
0
3
L
09.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
2
L
26.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
7
L
22.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
6
L
11.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
5
L
03.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
15.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
0
1
L
21.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
2
2
D
15.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
0
W
31.01.26
Fri
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
0
D
H2H away: Trans Narva
16.06.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
21.02.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
20.09.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
27.04.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
1
L
24.08.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
1
W
21.04.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
5
0
L
28.10.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
1
0
L
27.06.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
3
0
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4 18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga