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ESTONIA › MEISTRILIIGA
20.05.2026 16:00
Kuressaare Linnastaadion
Referee: R. Maalinn
Kuressaare
Match Timeline
Nõmme United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
E. Demidov
Kuressaare
🟨
16'
G. Kabal
Nõmme United
⚽
18'
K. Oostenbrink
Kuressaare
🟨
44'
K. Matas
Nõmme United
🔄
46'
G. Kabal ↔ B. Chisala
Nõmme United
🔄
46'
M. Palts ↔ K. Laanelaid
Nõmme United
🔄
67'
G. Roivassepp ↔ M. Leivategija
Kuressaare
🟨
73'
R. Chanda
Nõmme United
🟨
73'
S. Cisakowski
Nõmme United
🔄
73'
H. Jarvelaid ↔ S. Merilai
Nõmme United
⚽
81'
A. Frolov
Nõmme United
🔄
82'
A. Kivi ↔ A. Visse
Kuressaare
🔄
90+3'
R. Chanda ↔ A. Truuvaart
Nõmme United

Kuressaare vs Nõmme United Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 72.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 11.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
72.2%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
17.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
11.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Kuressaare Win 30.9%
Draw 27.8%
Nõmme United Win 41.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kuressaare1.81
Nõmme United2.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kuressaare Kuressaare
WWDLW
22 GF / 39 GA
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WLDWL
46 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
2.42
2.29
Average Goals Conceded
2.58
10
BTTS Yes
16
11
Over 2.5
18
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kuressaare Kuressaare 17 matches
Nõmme United Nõmme United 19 matches
Kuressaare Statistic Nõmme United
4 Wins 8
2 Draws 2
11 Losses 9
22 Goals For 46
39 Goals Against 49
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 2.42
2.29 Avg Goals Conceded 2.58
10 BTTS Yes 16
14 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 18
7 Over 3.5 14
1 Clean Sheets 1
6 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nõmme United having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nõmme United.

Kuressaare Analysis

With 9 points from 12 games and a place of 9, Kuressaare still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 11:22, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through A. Kivi (3 goals), J. Vahermagi (2 goals), R. Talu (2 goals), with creative support from R. Talu (3 assists), R. Piil (2 assists), E. Demidov (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nõmme United Analysis

With 13 points from 12 games and a place of 8, Nõmme United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 7 defeats with a 26:30 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on O. Dacosta (4 goals), Z. Beglarishvili (4 goals), A. Frolov (3 goals), with creative support from Z. Beglarishvili (4 assists), H. Jarvelaid (4 assists), A. Frolov (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Kuressaare won 3 times, Nõmme United won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:18 from Kuressaare's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.7 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (72.2%)
H2H summary: Kuressaare wins 3, draws 4, Nõmme United wins 3

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 23 6 1 82:21 61 75
W D W W W
2 30 18 1 11 59:41 18 55
L W W D W
3 30 15 6 9 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
4 30 15 5 10 52:28 24 50
L W W L L
5 30 15 2 13 41:47 -6 47
W L L W L
6 30 12 2 16 41:47 -6 38
W D W L L
7 30 10 5 15 41:59 -18 35
D L L L W
8 30 9 5 16 33:49 -16 32
W D L L W
9 30 9 1 20 47:72 -25 28
L L L W L
10 30 5 5 20 24:67 -43 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga