ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Kuressaare Linnastaadion
Referee: R. Maalinn
Kuressaare
Match Timeline
Nõmme United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
11'
E. Demidov
Kuressaare
🟨
16'
G. Kabal
Nõmme United
18'
K. Oostenbrink
Kuressaare
🟨
44'
K. Matas
Nõmme United
🔄
46'
G. Kabal ↔ B. Chisala
Nõmme United
🔄
46'
M. Palts ↔ K. Laanelaid
Nõmme United
🔄
67'
G. Roivassepp ↔ M. Leivategija
Kuressaare
🟨
73'
R. Chanda
Nõmme United
🟨
73'
S. Cisakowski
Nõmme United
🔄
73'
H. Jarvelaid ↔ S. Merilai
Nõmme United
81'
A. Frolov
Nõmme United
🔄
82'
A. Kivi ↔ A. Visse
Kuressaare
🔄
90+3'
R. Chanda ↔ A. Truuvaart
Nõmme United

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 72.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 17.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 11.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
72.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
17.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
11.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kuressaare Win 30.9%
Draw 27.8%
Nõmme United Win 41.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kuressaare1.81
Nõmme United2.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kuressaare Kuressaare
WWDLW
22 GF / 39 GA
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WLDWL
46 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
2.42
2.29
Average Goals Conceded
2.58
10
BTTS Yes
16
11
Over 2.5
18
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kuressaare Kuressaare 17 matches
Nõmme United Nõmme United 19 matches
Kuressaare Statistic Nõmme United
4 Wins 8
2 Draws 2
11 Losses 9
22 Goals For 46
39 Goals Against 49
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 2.42
2.29 Avg Goals Conceded 2.58
10 BTTS Yes 16
14 Over 1.5 19
11 Over 2.5 18
7 Over 3.5 14
1 Clean Sheets 1
6 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nõmme United having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nõmme United.

Kuressaare Analysis

With 9 points from 12 games and a place of 9, Kuressaare still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 11:22, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through A. Kivi (3 goals), J. Vahermagi (2 goals), R. Talu (2 goals), with creative support from R. Talu (3 assists), R. Piil (2 assists), E. Demidov (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nõmme United Analysis

With 13 points from 12 games and a place of 8, Nõmme United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 7 defeats with a 26:30 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on O. Dacosta (4 goals), Z. Beglarishvili (4 goals), A. Frolov (3 goals), with creative support from Z. Beglarishvili (4 assists), H. Jarvelaid (4 assists), A. Frolov (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Kuressaare won 3 times, Nõmme United won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:15 from Kuressaare's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.56 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (72.2%)
H2H summary: Kuressaare wins 3, draws 4, Nõmme United wins 2

Lineups

Kuressaare
Formation
Nõmme United
K. Nomm
K. Nomm
R. Saar
R. Saar
R. Piil
R. Piil
M. Lukka
M. Lukka
S. Prunn
S. Prunn
S. Sinilaid
S. Sinilaid
D. Andreas
D. Andreas
G. Roivassepp
G. Roivassepp
E. Demidov
E. Demidov
T. Jurisoo
T. Jurisoo
A. Kivi
A. Kivi
G. Lagus
G. Lagus
R. Chanda
R. Chanda
K. Oostenbrink
K. Oostenbrink
M. Palts
M. Palts
B. Vain
B. Vain
G. Kabal
G. Kabal
A. Frolov
A. Frolov
H. Jarvelaid
H. Jarvelaid
Z. Beglarishvili
Z. Beglarishvili
O. Dacosta
O. Dacosta
K. Matas
K. Matas
Kuressaare 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
31
K. Nomm
23
R. Saar
36
R. Piil
21
M. Lukka
27
S. Prunn
5
S. Sinilaid
8
D. Andreas
17
G. Roivassepp
↓ 67'
77
E. Demidov
⚽ 11'
11
T. Jurisoo
10
A. Kivi
↓ 82'
Substitutes
22
S. Ristna
13
A. Visse
↑ 82'
18
M. Dzemesjuk
25
J. Lonks
28
R. Lukas
37
M. Leivategija
↑ 67'
44
O. Joost
72
R. Lohmus
80
R. Tarkmeel
Nõmme United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
G. Lagus
55
R. Chanda
↓ 90+3' 🟨 73'
26
K. Oostenbrink
⚽ 18'
6
M. Palts
↓ 46'
8
B. Vain
24
G. Kabal
↓ 46' 🟨 16'
10
A. Frolov
⚽ 81'
45
H. Jarvelaid
↓ 73'
49
Z. Beglarishvili
16
O. Dacosta
20
K. Matas
🟨 44'
Substitutes
71
G. Purg
3
S. Merilai
↑ 73'
11
B. Chisala
↑ 46'
13
A. Truuvaart
↑ 90+3'
22
A. Radomskiy
23
K. Laanelaid
↑ 46'
31
A. Kaspar
Last matches: Kuressaare
26.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
13.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
31.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
1
1
D
17.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
08.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
0
1
L
02.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
25.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
2
L
21.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
18.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
07.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
03.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
0
1
L
21.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
4
L
14.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
3
2
W
08.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
2
L
21.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
14.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Tallinna Kalev
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
3
3
D
31.01.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
9
L
Last matches: Nõmme United
20.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
2
1
W
29.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
15.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
2
3
L
02.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
3
2
W
25.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
7
L
18.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
5
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
1
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
21.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
2
3
L
14.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
7
1
W
07.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Viimsi
5
1
W
14.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Tallinn
3
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
3
D
01.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
H2H: Kuressaare vs Nõmme United
20.05.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
W
25.04.26
H2H
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
1
L
07.02.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
3
3
D
19.01.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
W
28.09.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
4
1
W
01.09.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
2
2
D
16.06.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
1
D
04.05.24
H2H
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
1
1
D
17.02.23
H2H
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
1
L
Last matches: Kuressaare
16.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
17.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
02.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
21.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
11.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
03.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
0
1
L
14.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
3
2
W
21.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
14.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Tallinna Kalev
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
3
3
D
H2H at home: Kuressaare
20.05.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
W
07.02.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
3
3
D
19.01.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
W
28.09.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
4
1
W
16.06.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
1
D
Last matches: Nõmme United
20.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Laagri
3
1
W
13.06.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
2
1
W
15.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Tammeka
1
3
L
02.05.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Vaprus
3
2
W
22.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Kalju Nomme
1
7
L
08.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Paide
1
3
L
04.04.26
Mei
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
07.03.26
Mei
Nõmme United
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Viimsi
5
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Kuressaare
3
3
D
24.01.26
Fri
Nõmme United
Trans Narva
4
3
W
18.01.26
Fri
Nõmme United
FC Levadia Tallinn
4
2
W
H2H away: Nõmme United
20.05.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
L
07.02.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
3
3
D
19.01.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
L
28.09.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
4
1
L
16.06.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
1
D

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4 18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga