ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Kuressaare Linnastaadion
Referee: J. Frischer
Kuressaare
Match Timeline
Kalju Nomme
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
M. Mannilaan · Assist: M. Orlov
Kalju Nomme
🟨
33'
D. Mashchenko
Kalju Nomme
49'
N. Ivanov
Kalju Nomme
🔄
57'
R. Talu ↔ M. Leivategija
Kuressaare
🔄
59'
D. Mashchenko ↔ M. Tambedou
Kalju Nomme
🔄
59'
M. Orlov ↔ T. Baptista
Kalju Nomme
🔄
63'
G. Roivassepp ↔ S. Prunn
Kuressaare
🔄
63'
S. Sinilaid ↔ R. Lukas
Kuressaare
🔄
63'
T. Jurisoo ↔ R. Tarkmeel
Kuressaare
🔄
67'
K. Kask ↔ E. E. Lotar Eyang
Kalju Nomme
🟨
71'
M. Lukka
Kuressaare
🔄
80'
A. Kivi ↔ A. Visse
Kuressaare
🔄
87'
N. Ivanov ↔ D. Tarassenkov
Kalju Nomme

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 70.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
70.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kuressaare Win 26%
Draw 3.6%
Kalju Nomme Win 70.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kuressaare1.19
Kalju Nomme2.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kuressaare Kuressaare
WWDLW
22 GF / 37 GA
Kalju Nomme Kalju Nomme
WLDWL
42 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
2.1
2.31
Average Goals Conceded
0.9
10
BTTS Yes
9
11
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kuressaare Kuressaare 16 matches
Kalju Nomme Kalju Nomme 20 matches
Kuressaare Statistic Kalju Nomme
4 Wins 11
2 Draws 4
10 Losses 5
22 Goals For 42
37 Goals Against 18
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 2.1
2.31 Avg Goals Conceded 0.9
10 BTTS Yes 9
13 Over 1.5 16
11 Over 2.5 10
7 Over 3.5 5
1 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Kalju Nomme's more proactive style and Kuressaare's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Kalju Nomme. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Kalju Nomme carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 22 points while Kuressaare sit 9 on 9, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Kalju Nomme having the stronger overall control.

Kuressaare Analysis

Kuressaare sit 9 with 9 points after 11 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 0 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 11:20 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Kivi (3 goals), J. Vahermagi (2 goals), R. Talu (2 goals), with creative support from R. Talu (3 assists), R. Piil (2 assists), E. Demidov (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kalju Nomme Analysis

With 22 points from 11 games and a place of 2, Kalju Nomme still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 7 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 22:7, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Mannilaan (5 goals), N. Ivanov (4 goals), M. Orlov (3 goals), with creative support from M. Orlov (3 assists), R. Siht (3 assists), B. Vastsuk (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Kuressaare won 1 times, Kalju Nomme won 13 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:39 from Kuressaare's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.14 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.4%)
H2H summary: Kuressaare wins 1, draws 0, Kalju Nomme wins 13

Lineups

Kuressaare
Formation
Kalju Nomme
K. Nomm
K. Nomm
E. Demidov
E. Demidov
R. Piil
R. Piil
M. Lukka
M. Lukka
R. Saar
R. Saar
S. Sinilaid
S. Sinilaid
D. Andreas
D. Andreas
G. Roivassepp
G. Roivassepp
R. Talu
R. Talu
T. Jurisoo
T. Jurisoo
A. Kivi
A. Kivi
H. Perk
H. Perk
D. Mashchenko
D. Mashchenko
R. Vukusic
R. Vukusic
U. Korre
U. Korre
A. Nikolajev
A. Nikolajev
O. Musolitin
O. Musolitin
K. Kask
K. Kask
R. Siht
R. Siht
N. Ivanov
N. Ivanov
M. Mannilaan
M. Mannilaan
M. Orlov
🎯
M. Orlov
Kuressaare 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
31
K. Nomm
77
E. Demidov
36
R. Piil
21
M. Lukka
🟨 71'
23
R. Saar
5
S. Sinilaid
↓ 63'
8
D. Andreas
17
G. Roivassepp
↓ 63'
7
R. Talu
↓ 57'
11
T. Jurisoo
↓ 63'
10
A. Kivi
↓ 80'
Substitutes
22
S. Ristna
13
A. Visse
↑ 80'
18
M. Dzemesjuk
25
J. Lonks
27
S. Prunn
↑ 63'
28
R. Lukas
↑ 63'
37
M. Leivategija
↑ 57'
44
O. Joost
80
R. Tarkmeel
↑ 63'
Kalju Nomme 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
H. Perk
78
D. Mashchenko
↓ 59' 🟨 33'
46
R. Vukusic
5
U. Korre
22
A. Nikolajev
8
O. Musolitin
6
K. Kask
↓ 67'
26
R. Siht
10
N. Ivanov
⚽ 49' ↓ 87'
27
M. Mannilaan
⚽ 10'
11
M. Orlov
🎯 10' ↓ 59'
Substitutes
69
M. Pavlov
2
J. Lillemets
7
D. Tarassenkov
↑ 87'
17
E. E. Lotar Eyang
↑ 67'
20
M. Tambedou
↑ 59'
30
I. Jabir
59
B. Vastsuk
74
F. Jekimov
21
T. Baptista
↑ 59'
Last matches: Kuressaare
26.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
13.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
31.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
W
08.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
0
1
L
02.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
25.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
2
L
21.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
18.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
07.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
03.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
0
1
L
21.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
4
L
14.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
3
2
W
08.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
2
L
21.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
14.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Tallinna Kalev
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
3
3
D
31.01.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Vaprus
2
9
L
Last matches: Kalju Nomme
28.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
20.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
17.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Tammeka
1
2
L
14.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
30.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
3
L
20.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Laagri
1
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
01.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Trans Narva
3
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
2
L
22.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Nõmme United
7
1
W
19.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Paide
0
1
L
12.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
08.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Laagri
2
0
W
03.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Trans Narva
2
1
W
21.03.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
4
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Flora Tallinn
1
0
W
08.03.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Tammeka
1
0
W
21.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Super Nova
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Tukums
2
2
D
H2H: Kuressaare vs Kalju Nomme
17.05.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
21.03.26
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
4
0
L
25.10.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
31.08.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
2
0
L
18.05.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
4
0
L
12.04.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
02.11.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
18.08.24
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
5
1
L
18.05.24
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
3
0
L
02.03.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
6
L
17.02.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
0
D
26.09.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
27.08.23
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
4
1
L
10.06.23
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
2
0
L
23.04.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
2
0
W
Last matches: Kuressaare
16.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
20.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
W
02.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
21.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
11.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
03.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
0
1
L
14.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
3
2
W
21.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
14.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Tallinna Kalev
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
3
3
D
H2H at home: Kuressaare
17.05.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
25.10.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
12.04.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
02.11.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
02.03.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
6
L
17.02.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
0
D
26.09.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
23.04.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
2
0
W
Last matches: Kalju Nomme
20.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
30.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
3
L
01.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Trans Narva
3
0
W
19.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Paide
0
1
L
08.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Laagri
2
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Flora Tallinn
1
0
W
08.03.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Tammeka
1
0
W
14.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
28.01.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
FK Liepaja
5
3
W
23.01.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Maardu
5
0
W
10.01.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Viimsi
3
0
W
24.07.25
UEF
Kalju Nomme
St Patrick's Athl.
0
1
L
17.07.25
UEF
Kalju Nomme
Partizani
1
0
W
H2H away: Kalju Nomme
17.05.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
W
25.10.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
1
W
12.04.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
W
02.11.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
1
2
W
02.03.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
6
W
17.02.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
0
D
26.09.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
W
23.04.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
2
0
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4 18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga