FINLAND › VEIKKAUSLIIGA
13.09.2026 12:00
Vare Areena
Referee: Joona Kontinen, Finland
KuPS
Match Timeline
HJK Helsinki
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
34'
Akseli Puukko
KuPS
🔄
46'
A. Puukko ↔ S. Savolainen
KuPS
🔄
63'
M. Borchers ↔ T. Pukki
HJK Helsinki
🔄
71'
A. Aiki ↔ C. Kabuye
KuPS
🔄
72'
L. Moller ↔ L. Lappalainen
HJK Helsinki
🔄
84'
J. Eskesen ↔ S. Pasanen
KuPS
🔄
84'
T. Jyry ↔ J. Luyeye-Lutumba
KuPS
🔄
84'
P. Mentu ↔ L. Lingman
HJK Helsinki
🔄
84'
A. Ring ↔ J. Kallinen
HJK Helsinki
🟨
90'
Martin Kirilov
HJK Helsinki

KuPS vs HJK Helsinki Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.2%
Odds 3.31
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.81
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.2%
3.31 ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.81 ▥
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
2.01 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
KuPS Win 37.6%
Draw 10.3%
HJK Helsinki Win 52.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
KuPS1.36
HJK Helsinki1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
KuPS KuPS
WWDLW
50 GF / 34 GA
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki
WLDWL
54 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.74
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.19
19
BTTS Yes
13
12
Over 2.5
19
2.03
Shots on Goal
1.48

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

KuPS KuPS 34 matches
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 31 matches
KuPS Statistic HJK Helsinki
16 Wins 16
11 Draws 5
7 Losses 10
50 Goals For 54
34 Goals Against 37
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.74
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.19
19 BTTS Yes 13
26 Over 1.5 24
12 Over 2.5 19
7 Over 3.5 8
11 Clean Sheets 12
6 Failed To Score 6
2.03 Shots On Goal 1.48
4.77 Total Shots 3.52
2.06 Corners 1.56
23.9% Ball Possession 20.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors HJK Helsinki. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with KuPS expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and HJK Helsinki in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward HJK Helsinki having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

KuPS Analysis

KuPS arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 43 points after 22 matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 38:23 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Luyeye-Lutumba (2 goals), G. Engvall (1 goals), with creative support from J. Luyeye-Lutumba (1 assists), G. Engvall (1 assists), C. Antwi (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 4 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

HJK Helsinki Analysis

HJK Helsinki come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 37 points after 22 matches. The return of 11 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 36:27, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Brooklyn Lyons-Foster (1 goals), M. Borchers (1 goals), with creative support from T. Pukki (1 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, KuPS won 3 times, HJK Helsinki won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:3 from KuPS's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.8%)
Predicted formations: KuPS 4-2-3-1 / HJK Helsinki 4-4-2
H2H summary: KuPS wins 3, draws 1, HJK Helsinki wins 1

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
KuPS Home
22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
W D D L L
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W W L W D
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
D D W W L
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D W D D W
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
L L L D W
6 22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L L W L W
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
D L W W W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
L L D D D
9 22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
W W W L L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
W D D D L
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
D D L L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
L W L W W
Play-offs
Relegation Play-offs