KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 60.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 28.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.2%
-
BTTS Yes
60.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
28.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kibera Black Stars Win 77.2%
Draw 5.2%
MCF Win 17.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kibera Black Stars0.94
MCF0.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kibera Black Stars Kibera Black Stars
WWDLW
31 GF / 30 GA
MCF MCF
WLDWL
20 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
0.86
Average Goals Scored
0.59
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
13
BTTS Yes
10
8
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kibera Black Stars Kibera Black Stars 36 matches
MCF MCF 34 matches
Kibera Black Stars Statistic MCF
15 Wins 7
8 Draws 10
13 Losses 17
31 Goals For 20
30 Goals Against 36
0.86 Avg Goals Scored 0.59
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
13 BTTS Yes 10
18 Over 1.5 16
8 Over 2.5 10
1 Over 3.5 3
14 Clean Sheets 13
12 Failed To Score 18
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Kibera Black Stars's more proactive style and MCF's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Kibera Black Stars arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 9 with 53 points compared to MCF in 18 on 31, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward MCF having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward MCF. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Kibera Black Stars Analysis

Kibera Black Stars sit 9 with 53 points after 36 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 15 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses, while the 31:30 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

MCF Analysis

MCF sit 18 with 31 points after 36 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 8 wins, 10 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 22:38, reflects poor form . Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Kibera Black Stars won 3 times, MCF won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:15 from Kibera Black Stars's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
H2H summary: Kibera Black Stars wins 3, draws 2, MCF wins 5
Last matches: Kibera Black Stars
13.06.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Nzoia Sugar
0
1
L
01.06.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
MOFA
1
1
D
27.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Nairobi City Stars
1
1
D
23.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Migori Youth
0
1
L
16.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
3K
1
2
L
10.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Mwatate United
1
1
D
02.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Gucha Stars
0
0
D
25.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Fortune Sacco
1
1
D
19.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
11.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Mombasa Elite
2
0
W
03.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Naivas
1
2
L
29.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Talanta
2
1
W
21.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Vihiga United FC
0
1
L
07.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Darajani Gogo
1
0
W
28.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
22.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Equity Bank
1
2
L
14.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Soy United
1
0
W
01.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Vihiga United FC
1
2
L
24.01.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Naivas
1
1
D
Last matches: MCF
13.06.26
Sup
MCF
Fortune Sacco
0
3
L
27.05.26
Sup
MCF
Migori Youth
1
2
L
23.05.26
Sup
MCF
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
17.05.26
Sup
MCF
Nzoia Sugar
1
0
W
06.05.26
Sup
MCF
3K
0
2
L
02.05.26
Sup
MCF
Soy United
1
1
D
25.04.26
Sup
MCF
Darajani Gogo
0
0
D
19.04.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
0
0
D
14.04.26
Sup
MCF
MOFA
0
3
L
12.04.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
06.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kabati Youth FC
2
1
W
03.04.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
2
0
W
29.03.26
Sup
MCF
Mombasa Elite
1
3
L
25.03.26
Sup
MCF
Equity Bank
0
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
MCF
Naivas
0
1
L
14.03.26
Sup
MCF
Gucha Stars
1
1
D
08.03.26
Sup
MCF
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
1
2
L
17.01.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
1
3
L
09.01.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
1
2
L
H2H: Kibera Black Stars vs MCF
07.06.26
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
1
2
L
01.11.25
H2H
MCF
Kibera Black Stars
0
2
W
09.03.25
H2H
MCF
Kibera Black Stars
2
0
L
24.11.24
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
3
1
W
23.03.24
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
0
1
L
11.02.24
H2H
MCF
Kibera Black Stars
1
2
W
23.06.23
H2H
MCF
Kibera Black Stars
4
1
L
11.03.23
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
0
0
D
22.06.22
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
0
3
L
02.03.22
H2H
MCF
Kibera Black Stars
1
1
D
Last matches: Kibera Black Stars
27.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Nairobi City Stars
1
1
D
16.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
3K
1
2
L
02.05.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Gucha Stars
0
0
D
25.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Fortune Sacco
1
1
D
11.04.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Mombasa Elite
2
0
W
21.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
14.03.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Vihiga United FC
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Kabati Youth FC
1
0
W
14.02.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Soy United
1
0
W
24.01.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Naivas
1
1
D
11.01.26
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Luanda Villa
2
1
W
17.12.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Migori Youth
1
0
W
07.12.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Mwatate United
2
1
W
23.11.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Darajani Gogo
0
1
L
09.11.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Equity Bank
0
1
L
29.10.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Nzoia Sugar
0
0
D
12.10.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
MOFA
1
0
W
28.09.25
Sup
Kibera Black Stars
Talanta
0
1
L
H2H at home: Kibera Black Stars
07.06.26
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
1
2
L
24.11.24
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
3
1
W
23.03.24
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
0
1
L
11.03.23
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
0
0
D
22.06.22
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
0
3
L
Last matches: MCF
27.05.26
Sup
MCF
Migori Youth
1
2
L
23.05.26
Sup
MCF
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
06.05.26
Sup
MCF
3K
0
2
L
25.04.26
Sup
MCF
Darajani Gogo
0
0
D
14.04.26
Sup
MCF
MOFA
0
3
L
12.04.26
Sup
MCF
Vihiga United FC
0
0
D
29.03.26
Sup
MCF
Mombasa Elite
1
3
L
08.03.26
Sup
MCF
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
MCF
Kisumu All Stars
1
2
L
09.01.26
Sup
MCF
Talanta
1
2
L
14.12.25
Sup
MCF
Soy United
0
1
L
03.12.25
Sup
MCF
Nzoia Sugar
0
0
D
29.11.25
Sup
MCF
Equity Bank
1
3
L
16.11.25
Sup
MCF
Kabati Youth FC
0
0
D
29.10.25
Sup
MCF
Fortune Sacco
1
1
D
12.10.25
Sup
MCF
Mwatate United
3
0
W
04.10.25
Sup
MCF
Naivas
0
1
L
H2H away: MCF
07.06.26
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
1
2
W
24.11.24
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
3
1
L
23.03.24
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
0
1
W
11.03.23
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
0
0
D
22.06.22
H2H
Kibera Black Stars
MCF
0
3
W

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18
MCF Away
38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation