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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
17.05.2026 10:00
Kawasaki Todoroki Stadium
Referee: Y. Araki
Kawasaki Frontale
Match Timeline
Machida Zelvia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
28'
Lazar Romanić
Kawasaki Frontale
⚽
40'
T. Yengi · Assist: H. Shimoda
Machida Zelvia
🔄
46'
G. Shoji ↔ Y. Nakayama
Machida Zelvia
🔄
62'
H. Shimoda ↔ N. Lavi
Machida Zelvia
🔄
62'
T. Yengi ↔ S. Fujio
Machida Zelvia
🔄
65'
T. Miyagi ↔ Marcinho
Kawasaki Frontale
🔄
70'
Erik ↔ K. Sento
Machida Zelvia
🔄
72'
K. Tachibanada ↔ S. Kawahara
Kawasaki Frontale
🔄
72'
T. Ito ↔ R. Osa
Kawasaki Frontale
🔄
72'
L. Romanic ↔ K. Mochiyama
Kawasaki Frontale
🔄
82'
Na Sang-Ho ↔ K. Hayashi
Machida Zelvia
VAR
87'
Reon Yamahara
Kawasaki Frontale
⚽
89'
Y. Wakizaka
Kawasaki Frontale
🟨
90+7'
Neta Lavi
Machida Zelvia

Kawasaki Frontale vs Machida Zelvia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 59.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
59.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Kawasaki Frontale Win 35.1%
Draw 15%
Machida Zelvia Win 49.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kawasaki Frontale1.38
Machida Zelvia1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale
WWDLW
25 GF / 26 GA
Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia
WLDWL
23 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.35
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
8
BTTS Yes
9
8
Over 2.5
9
3.44
Shots on Goal
3.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 17 matches
Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 17 matches
Kawasaki Frontale Statistic Machida Zelvia
7 Wins 7
3 Draws 7
7 Losses 3
25 Goals For 23
26 Goals Against 21
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
8 BTTS Yes 9
13 Over 1.5 13
8 Over 2.5 9
5 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 4
3.44 Shots On Goal 3.75
10.94 Total Shots 11.75
4.56 Corners 4.25
51.8% Ball Possession 44.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Machida Zelvia's more proactive style and Kawasaki Frontale's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Kawasaki Frontale expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Machida Zelvia in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Machida Zelvia having the stronger overall control. Machida Zelvia look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Machida Zelvia. Machida Zelvia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 31 points while Kawasaki Frontale sit 6 on 23, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Kawasaki Frontale Analysis

Kawasaki Frontale approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 23 points from 16 matches. Their record of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 21:26, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Erison (7 goals), Y. Wakizaka (4 goals), L. Romanic (2 goals), with creative support from Y. Wakizaka (4 assists), Y. Yamamoto (2 assists), K. Tachibanada (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Machida Zelvia Analysis

Machida Zelvia approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 31 points after 15 outings. They have recorded 11 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a 25:20 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Erik (6 goals), Y. Soma (4 goals), Na Sang-Ho (3 goals), with creative support from Y. Soma (2 assists), Na Sang-Ho (2 assists), T. Yengi (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Kawasaki Frontale won 2 times, Machida Zelvia won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:12 from Kawasaki Frontale's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.57 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.1%)
Predicted formations: Kawasaki Frontale 4-2-3-1 / Machida Zelvia 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Kawasaki Frontale wins 2, draws 3, Machida Zelvia wins 2

Standings

East
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 0 3 31:11 20 45
?
2 18 13 0 5 32:18 14 37
?
3 18 13 0 5 28:22 6 37
?
4 18 10 0 8 26:28 -2 28
?
5 18 10 0 8 22:26 -4 28
?
6 18 7 0 11 25:22 3 25
?
7 18 6 0 12 28:31 -3 20
?
8 18 7 0 11 22:24 -2 20
?
9 18 6 0 12 23:39 -16 18
?
10 18 3 0 15 18:34 -16 12
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)