LITHUANIA A LYGA
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.5%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kauno Žalgiris Win 82.5%
Draw 8.8%
Panevėžys Win 8.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kauno Žalgiris1.7
Panevėžys1.02
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kauno Žalgiris Kauno Žalgiris
WWDLW
48 GF / 20 GA
Panevėžys Panevėžys
WLDWL
32 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.85
Average Goals Scored
1.19
0.77
Average Goals Conceded
1.48
13
BTTS Yes
16
16
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kauno Žalgiris Kauno Žalgiris 26 matches
Panevėžys Panevėžys 27 matches
Kauno Žalgiris Statistic Panevėžys
14 Wins 11
7 Draws 5
5 Losses 11
48 Goals For 32
20 Goals Against 40
1.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.19
0.77 Avg Goals Conceded 1.48
13 BTTS Yes 16
19 Over 1.5 20
16 Over 2.5 15
7 Over 3.5 7
11 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Kauno Žalgiris's more proactive style and Panevėžys's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Kauno Žalgiris arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 28 points compared to Panevėžys in 8 on 19, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Panevėžys. Panevėžys arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Panevėžys having the stronger overall control.

Kauno Žalgiris Analysis

Kauno Žalgiris come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 28 points from 18 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 31:15 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by their main attacking players, while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Panevėžys Analysis

Panevėžys sit 8 with 19 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 4 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 18:34 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kauno Žalgiris won 7 times, Panevėžys won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:11 from Kauno Žalgiris's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91.2%)
H2H summary: Kauno Žalgiris wins 7, draws 4, Panevėžys wins 4
Last matches: Kauno Žalgiris
03.07.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Džiugas Telšiai
0
0
D
20.06.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
TransINVEST Vilnius
2
1
W
17.06.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Banga
0
1
L
14.06.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Hegelmann Litauen
1
1
D
31.05.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0
1
L
23.05.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Suduva Marijampole
1
2
L
16.05.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Šiauliai
0
0
D
10.05.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
1
1
D
05.05.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Džiugas Telšiai
2
2
D
01.05.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Banga
2
2
D
25.04.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
FK Trakai
4
0
W
18.04.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
TransINVEST Vilnius
1
2
L
11.04.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Hegelmann Litauen
5
0
W
05.04.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
3
0
W
21.03.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Suduva Marijampole
1
1
D
15.03.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Šiauliai
5
0
W
10.03.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
4
0
W
07.03.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Džiugas Telšiai
2
1
W
28.02.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Banga
1
0
W
23.02.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
FK Trakai
2
1
W
Last matches: Panevėžys
04.07.26
A L
Panevėžys
Hegelmann Litauen
1
1
D
29.06.26
A L
Panevėžys
Suduva Marijampole
1
2
L
20.06.26
A L
Panevėžys
Šiauliai
3
2
W
16.06.26
A L
Panevėžys
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0
3
L
12.06.26
A L
Panevėžys
TransINVEST Vilnius
1
2
L
30.05.26
A L
Panevėžys
Džiugas Telšiai
0
4
L
24.05.26
A L
Panevėžys
Banga
1
0
W
10.05.26
A L
Panevėžys
Kauno Žalgiris
1
1
D
06.05.26
A L
Panevėžys
Hegelmann Litauen
2
3
L
03.05.26
A L
Panevėžys
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
2
1
W
25.04.26
A L
Panevėžys
Suduva Marijampole
0
1
L
18.04.26
A L
Panevėžys
Šiauliai
1
3
L
12.04.26
A L
Panevėžys
TransINVEST Vilnius
2
1
W
05.04.26
A L
Panevėžys
Džiugas Telšiai
0
1
L
21.03.26
A L
Panevėžys
Banga
1
0
W
15.03.26
A L
Panevėžys
FK Trakai
2
1
W
10.03.26
A L
Panevėžys
Kauno Žalgiris
0
4
L
07.03.26
A L
Panevėžys
Hegelmann Litauen
1
1
D
27.02.26
A L
Panevėžys
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1
4
L
22.02.26
A L
Panevėžys
Suduva Marijampole
0
0
D
H2H: Kauno Žalgiris vs Panevėžys
10.05.26
H2H
Panevėžys
Kauno Žalgiris
1
1
D
10.03.26
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
4
0
W
16.02.26
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
1
0
W
02.11.25
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
3
2
W
24.08.25
H2H
Panevėžys
Kauno Žalgiris
1
0
L
24.06.25
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
3
0
W
19.04.25
H2H
Panevėžys
Kauno Žalgiris
0
2
W
18.01.25
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
2
0
W
05.10.24
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
0
0
D
20.07.24
H2H
Panevėžys
Kauno Žalgiris
1
2
W
25.05.24
H2H
Panevėžys
Kauno Žalgiris
0
0
D
07.04.24
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
0
1
L
25.10.23
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
1
1
D
07.07.23
H2H
Panevėžys
Kauno Žalgiris
3
0
L
04.05.23
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
0
1
L
Last matches: Kauno Žalgiris
17.06.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Banga
0
1
L
31.05.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0
1
L
16.05.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Šiauliai
0
0
D
05.05.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Džiugas Telšiai
2
2
D
25.04.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
FK Trakai
4
0
W
18.04.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
TransINVEST Vilnius
1
2
L
11.04.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Hegelmann Litauen
5
0
W
21.03.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Suduva Marijampole
1
1
D
10.03.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
4
0
W
28.02.26
A L
Kauno Žalgiris
Banga
1
0
W
16.02.26
Sup
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
1
0
W
06.02.26
Fri
Kauno Žalgiris
Zimbru
2
1
W
25.01.26
Fri
Kauno Žalgiris
Zhenys
1
2
L
07.08.25
UEF
Kauno Žalgiris
Arda Kardzhali
0
1
L
24.07.25
UEF
Kauno Žalgiris
Valur Reykjavik
1
1
D
10.07.25
UEF
Kauno Žalgiris
Penybont
3
0
W
H2H at home: Kauno Žalgiris
10.03.26
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
4
0
W
16.02.26
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
1
0
W
02.11.25
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
3
2
W
24.06.25
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
3
0
W
18.01.25
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
2
0
W
05.10.24
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
0
0
D
07.04.24
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
0
1
L
25.10.23
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
1
1
D
04.05.23
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
0
1
L
Last matches: Panevėžys
16.06.26
A L
Panevėžys
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0
3
L
30.05.26
A L
Panevėžys
Džiugas Telšiai
0
4
L
06.05.26
A L
Panevėžys
Hegelmann Litauen
2
3
L
25.04.26
A L
Panevėžys
Suduva Marijampole
0
1
L
18.04.26
A L
Panevėžys
Šiauliai
1
3
L
12.04.26
A L
Panevėžys
TransINVEST Vilnius
2
1
W
21.03.26
A L
Panevėžys
Banga
1
0
W
10.03.26
A L
Panevėžys
Kauno Žalgiris
0
4
L
27.02.26
A L
Panevėžys
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1
4
L
16.02.26
Sup
Panevėžys
Kauno Žalgiris
0
1
L
H2H away: Panevėžys
10.03.26
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
4
0
L
16.02.26
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
1
0
L
02.11.25
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
3
2
L
24.06.25
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
3
0
L
18.01.25
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
2
0
L
05.10.24
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
0
0
D
07.04.24
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
0
1
W
25.10.23
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
1
1
D
04.05.23
H2H
Kauno Žalgiris
Panevėžys
0
1
W

Standings

A Lyga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 8 6 5 28:22 6 30
D D L D W
2 18 7 8 3 21:16 5 29
W W W D W
3 17 8 4 5 27:22 5 28
W L W W L
4 18 7 7 4 31:15 16 28
D W L D L
5 19 8 4 7 27:21 6 28
W D L W W
6 18 7 6 5 19:13 6 27
W W W D D
7 19 3 10 6 20:29 -9 19
D L D D L
8 19 5 4 10 18:34 -16 19
D L W L L
9 19 2 7 10 18:37 -19 13
L L L L L
10 0 0 0 0 0:0 0 0
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Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
TOPLYGA (Relegation)
Relegation - I Lyga