ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Hiiu Stadium
Referee: J. Frischer
Kalju Nomme
Match Timeline
Vaprus
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
18'
M. Villota ↔ M. Seppik
Vaprus
🟨
22'
R. Vukusic
Kalju Nomme
23'
H. Valja
Vaprus
30'
K. Aloe
Vaprus
🔄
35'
N. Ivanov ↔ T. Baptista
Kalju Nomme
🔄
35'
K. Kask ↔ I. Jabir
Kalju Nomme
🟨
45+3'
S. Kapper
Vaprus
🟨
45+3'
M. Tambedou
Kalju Nomme
🔄
46'
J. Sild ↔ S. Aer
Vaprus
🟨
60'
M. Lepik
Vaprus
🔄
60'
M. Mannilaan ↔ M. Orlov
Kalju Nomme
🔄
60'
D. Tarassenkov ↔ D. Sotsugov
Kalju Nomme
🔄
68'
M. Limberg ↔ J. Poder
Vaprus
🔄
68'
S. Kapper ↔ S. Viidas
Vaprus
69'
M. Orlov · Assist: B. Vastsuk
Kalju Nomme
🔄
80'
B. Vastsuk ↔ A. Nikolajev
Kalju Nomme
🔄
80'
V. Vallik ↔ K. Kauber
Vaprus
🟨
90+3'
J. Poder
Vaprus

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 91.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
91.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
54.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.8%
-
Probability Distribution
Kalju Nomme Win 91.5%
Draw 0%
Vaprus Win 8.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kalju Nomme2.17
Vaprus1.47
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kalju Nomme Kalju Nomme
WWDLW
38 GF / 15 GA
Vaprus Vaprus
WLDWL
26 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
2.24
Average Goals Scored
1.86
0.88
Average Goals Conceded
2.07
8
BTTS Yes
7
8
Over 2.5
9
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kalju Nomme Kalju Nomme 17 matches
Vaprus Vaprus 14 matches
Kalju Nomme Statistic Vaprus
10 Wins 4
4 Draws 2
3 Losses 8
38 Goals For 26
15 Goals Against 29
2.24 Avg Goals Scored 1.86
0.88 Avg Goals Conceded 2.07
8 BTTS Yes 7
14 Over 1.5 12
8 Over 2.5 9
5 Over 3.5 6
7 Clean Sheets 3
2 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Kalju Nomme's more proactive style and Vaprus's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Vaprus. Kalju Nomme arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 19 points compared to Vaprus in 9 on 7, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Vaprus having the stronger overall control. Vaprus arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Kalju Nomme Analysis

Kalju Nomme come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 19 points after 8 matches. The return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 11:2, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Mannilaan (5 goals), N. Ivanov (3 goals), M. Orlov (2 goals), with creative support from M. Orlov (3 assists), R. Siht (3 assists), D. Tarassenkov (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Vaprus Analysis

Vaprus approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 7 points from 8 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 6:17, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through H. Valja (3 goals), S. Viidas (3 goals), M. Limberg (1 goals), with creative support from M. Lepik (2 assists), K. Aloe (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Kalju Nomme won 8 times, Vaprus won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:18 from Kalju Nomme's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.36 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Kalju Nomme wins 8, draws 3, Vaprus wins 3

Lineups

Kalju Nomme
Formation
Vaprus
H. Perk
H. Perk
K. Kask
K. Kask
D. Tarassenkov
D. Tarassenkov
O. Musolitin
O. Musolitin
N. Ivanov
N. Ivanov
M. Tambedou
M. Tambedou
R. Siht
R. Siht
M. Mannilaan
M. Mannilaan
R. Vukusic
R. Vukusic
B. Vastsuk
🎯
B. Vastsuk
D. Mashchenko
D. Mashchenko
O. Nomm
O. Nomm
M. Villota
M. Villota
V. Vallik
V. Vallik
T. Pajo
T. Pajo
K. Aloe
K. Aloe
S. Kapper
S. Kapper
H. Valja
H. Valja
M. Lepik
M. Lepik
M. Lipp
M. Lipp
M. Limberg
M. Limberg
J. Sild
J. Sild
Kalju Nomme 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
H. Perk
6
K. Kask
↓ 35'
7
D. Tarassenkov
↓ 60'
8
O. Musolitin
10
N. Ivanov
↓ 35'
20
M. Tambedou
🟨 45+3'
26
R. Siht
27
M. Mannilaan
↓ 60'
46
R. Vukusic
🟨 22'
59
B. Vastsuk
🎯 69' ↓ 80'
78
D. Mashchenko
Substitutes
96
J. Kindel
2
J. Lillemets
5
U. Korre
11
M. Orlov
⚽ 69' ↑ 60'
17
E. E. Lotar Eyang
21
T. Baptista
↑ 35'
22
A. Nikolajev
↑ 80'
24
A. Iljin
30
I. Jabir
↑ 35'
74
F. Jekimov
88
D. Sotsugov
↑ 60'
Vaprus 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
16
O. Nomm
4
M. Villota
↓ 18'
7
V. Vallik
↓ 80'
8
T. Pajo
15
K. Aloe
⚽ 30'
17
S. Kapper
↓ 68' 🟨 45+3'
20
H. Valja
⚽ 23'
22
M. Lepik
🟨 60'
28
M. Lipp
42
M. Limberg
↓ 68'
90
J. Sild
↓ 46'
Substitutes
12
M. Ristimets
1
H. Vainu
3
K. Rand
5
S. Aer
↑ 46'
9
J. Poder
↑ 68' 🟨 90+3'
10
S. Viidas
↑ 68'
11
K. Kauber
↑ 80'
43
M. Seppik
↑ 18'
47
S. Kolvart
81
E. Dolgov
86
R. Roosson
Last matches: Kalju Nomme
28.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
20.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
17.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Tammeka
1
2
L
14.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
30.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
3
L
20.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Laagri
1
0
W
17.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
2
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
01.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Trans Narva
3
0
W
22.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Nõmme United
7
1
W
19.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Paide
0
1
L
12.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
08.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Laagri
2
0
W
03.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Trans Narva
2
1
W
21.03.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
4
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Flora Tallinn
1
0
W
08.03.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Tammeka
1
0
W
21.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Super Nova
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Tukums
2
2
D
Last matches: Vaprus
26.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
16.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
2
1
W
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
21.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Tallinna Kalev
6
0
W
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
H2H: Kalju Nomme vs Vaprus
30.05.26
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
L
26.04.26
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
2
L
05.10.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
0
W
10.08.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
2
L
27.06.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
2
D
01.03.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
0
3
W
24.01.25
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
1
3
W
09.11.24
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
2
1
W
15.09.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
0
4
W
03.07.24
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
4
2
W
30.03.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
1
2
W
07.02.24
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
0
0
D
07.10.23
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
1
D
19.08.23
H2H
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
3
D
06.06.23
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
0
W
Last matches: Kalju Nomme
28.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
17.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Tammeka
1
2
L
14.06.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Paide
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Laagri
1
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
22.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Nõmme United
7
1
W
12.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
1
D
03.04.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Trans Narva
2
1
W
21.03.26
Mei
Kalju Nomme
Kuressaare
4
0
W
21.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Super Nova
1
1
D
11.02.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Tukums
2
2
D
30.01.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Rīgas FS
1
1
D
17.01.26
Fri
Kalju Nomme
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
Kalju Nomme
St Patrick's Athl.
2
2
D
10.07.25
UEF
Kalju Nomme
Partizani
1
1
D
H2H at home: Kalju Nomme
26.04.26
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
2
L
05.10.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
0
W
10.08.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
2
L
09.11.24
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
2
1
W
03.07.24
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
4
2
W
07.10.23
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
1
D
06.06.23
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
0
W
Last matches: Vaprus
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
16.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
2
1
W
21.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
08.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Tallinna Kalev
6
0
W
24.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
3
L
H2H away: Vaprus
26.04.26
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
2
W
05.10.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
0
L
10.08.25
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
2
W
09.11.24
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
2
1
L
03.07.24
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
4
2
L
07.10.23
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
1
D
06.06.23
H2H
Kalju Nomme
Vaprus
1
0
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 13 4 1 46:15 31 43
L D W W W
2 17 11 0 6 35:19 16 33
W L W L W
3 18 9 4 5 30:15 15 31
D D L D L
4 18 8 5 5 27:22 5 29
D W W D D
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 17 7 2 8 21:31 -10 23
W L D W L
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 17 5 2 10 17:27 -10 17
L D W D W
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga