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BRAZIL › SERIE B
10.07.2026 22:00
Estádio Alfredo Jaconi
Referee: Andre Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento, Brazil
Juventude
Match Timeline
Vila Nova
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Luis Mandaca
Juventude
🔄
19'
Ryan ↔ Bruno Xavier
Vila Nova
⚽
45'
Messias · Assist: Rai Silva
Juventude
🔄
46'
↔ Higor Meritao
Vila Nova
🟨
57'
Patryck
Juventude
🟨
68'
André Luís
Vila Nova
🔄
70'
Mandaca ↔ Fabio Lima
Juventude
🔄
70'
MP ↔ M. Castro
Juventude
🔄
70'
Luan Martins ↔ Lucas Mineiro
Juventude
🟨
72'
Lucas Mineiro
Juventude
🔄
75'
Nathan Camargo ↔ Hayner
Vila Nova
🔄
75'
Marquinhos Gabriel ↔ Dodo
Vila Nova
🔄
77'
Alisson Safira ↔ Allanzinho
Juventude
🔄
81'
Dudu ↔ Dellatorre
Vila Nova
🟨
85'
Rodrigo Sam
Juventude
🔄
86'
Rai Ramos ↔ Gabriel Pinheiro
Juventude

Juventude vs Vila Nova Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.3%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Juventude Win 56.3%
Draw 4.9%
Vila Nova Win 38.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Juventude1.05
Vila Nova1.14
Recent Form (Last 5)
Juventude Juventude
WWDLW
16 GF / 8 GA
Vila Nova Vila Nova
WLDWL
25 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.56
0.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
3
BTTS Yes
10
4
Over 2.5
8
4.44
Shots on Goal
3.88

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Juventude Juventude 16 matches
Vila Nova Vila Nova 16 matches
Juventude Statistic Vila Nova
7 Wins 9
5 Draws 4
4 Losses 3
16 Goals For 25
8 Goals Against 18
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
0.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
3 BTTS Yes 10
8 Over 1.5 11
4 Over 2.5 8
0 Over 3.5 3
11 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 2
4.44 Shots On Goal 3.88
12.13 Total Shots 13.13
4.25 Corners 4.69
50.2% Ball Possession 51.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Vila Nova. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Juventude expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Vila Nova in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vila Nova having the stronger overall control. Juventude come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Juventude Analysis

Juventude are currently 6 in the standings with 25 points from 15 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 16:8 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on Raí (3 goals), Alan Kardec (1 goals), Wadson (1 goals), with creative support from Alan Kardec (1 assists), Wadson (1 assists), Alisson Safira (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses fits a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Vila Nova Analysis

Vila Nova approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 28 points after 15 outings. They have recorded 8 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with a 23:17 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Ryan Lima (3 goals), Rafael Silva (3 goals), Janderson (2 goals), with creative support from Janderson (4 assists), Marquinhos Gabriel (4 assists), Ryan Lima (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Juventude won 2 times, Vila Nova won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:6 from Juventude's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 0.9 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.1%)
Predicted formations: Juventude 3-4-2-1 / Vila Nova 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Juventude wins 2, draws 4, Vila Nova wins 4

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 37:19 18 59
W W W L L
2 32 17 7 8 44:31 13 58
D W W W D
3 32 16 9 7 54:27 27 57
W W D L D
4 32 15 11 6 37:27 10 56
W D D W D
5 32 15 8 9 33:28 5 53
L W W L L
6 32 14 10 8 40:30 10 52
L W W L W
7 32 15 6 11 49:45 4 51
W L W L W
8 32 13 11 8 44:34 10 50
W W L W L
9 32 13 9 10 44:43 1 48
L L D W D
10 32 11 14 7 32:25 7 47
D W L W D
11 32 13 6 13 32:40 -8 45
W L L W W
12 32 12 9 11 44:34 10 45
L W D W W
13 32 11 9 12 39:40 -1 42
L D W L D
14 32 11 9 12 35:39 -4 42
W W D W D
15 32 10 12 10 38:37 1 42
L L D D W
16 32 10 8 14 36:38 -2 38
W L W D L
17 32 9 6 17 32:43 -11 33
W L L L D
18 32 7 7 18 40:47 -7 28
L L L L W
19 32 4 5 23 21:53 -32 17
L L L L L
20 32 3 4 25 17:68 -51 13
L L L W L
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