COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
75.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Junior Win 63%
Draw 5.7%
Santa Fe Win 31.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Junior1.25
Santa Fe1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Junior Junior
WWDLW
44 GF / 42 GA
Santa Fe Santa Fe
WLDWL
48 GF / 38 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.41
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1.12
16
BTTS Yes
24
16
Over 2.5
16
4.09
Shots on Goal
4.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Junior Junior 33 matches
Santa Fe Santa Fe 34 matches
Junior Statistic Santa Fe
14 Wins 11
6 Draws 15
13 Losses 8
44 Goals For 48
42 Goals Against 38
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1.12
16 BTTS Yes 24
26 Over 1.5 28
16 Over 2.5 16
6 Over 3.5 8
9 Clean Sheets 7
9 Failed To Score 5
4.09 Shots On Goal 4.44
12.58 Total Shots 11.91
4.76 Corners 4.28
50.6% Ball Possession 47.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Junior have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Santa Fe. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Junior Analysis

Junior approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 2 with 35 points from 19 matches. Their record of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 31:24, reflects mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Guillermo Paiva (1 goals), with creative support from Déiber Caicedo (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Santa Fe Analysis

Santa Fe sit 7 with 29 points after 19 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 29:22 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Nahuel Bustos (1 goals), Hugo Rodallega (1 goals), Jader Obrian (1 goals), with creative support from Nahuel Bustos (1 assists), Franco Fagúndez (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Junior won 2 times, Santa Fe won 7 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:20 from Junior's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)
Predicted formations: Junior 4-2-3-1 / Santa Fe 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Junior wins 2, draws 6, Santa Fe wins 7
Last matches: Junior
02.08.26
Pri
Junior
Millonarios
0
1
L
26.07.26
Pri
Junior
Deportes Tolima
1
2
L
08.06.26
Pri
Junior
Atletico Nacional
0
1
L
03.06.26
Pri
Junior
Atletico Nacional
3
0
W
28.05.26
CON
Junior
Palmeiras
1
4
L
24.05.26
Pri
Junior
Santa Fe
0
0
D
21.05.26
CON
Junior
Sporting Cristal
3
2
W
17.05.26
Pri
Junior
Santa Fe
1
1
D
14.05.26
Pri
Junior
Once Caldas
2
2
D
10.05.26
Pri
Junior
Once Caldas
1
0
W
08.05.26
CON
Junior
Cerro Porteno
0
1
L
03.05.26
Pri
Junior
Deportivo Pasto
4
3
W
29.04.26
CON
Junior
Sporting Cristal
0
2
L
24.04.26
Pri
Junior
Cucuta
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pri
Junior
Llaneros
2
0
W
14.04.26
CON
Junior
Cerro Porteno
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pri
Junior
Águilas Doradas
3
0
W
09.04.26
CON
Junior
Palmeiras
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Junior
Deportivo Cali
1
2
L
29.03.26
Pri
Junior
Internacional de Bogota
1
0
W
Last matches: Santa Fe
22.08.26
Pri
Santa Fe
America de Cali
0
0
D
08.08.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Chico
2
0
W
03.08.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
2
2
D
26.07.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Águilas Doradas
1
2
L
28.05.26
CON
Santa Fe
Penarol
1
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Junior
0
0
D
20.05.26
CON
Santa Fe
Platense
2
1
W
17.05.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Junior
1
1
D
13.05.26
Pri
Santa Fe
America de Cali
4
0
W
10.05.26
Pri
Santa Fe
America de Cali
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Santa Fe
Corinthians
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Internacional de Bogota
3
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Santa Fe
Platense
1
2
L
23.04.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Deportivo Pasto
2
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Cucuta
5
0
W
16.04.26
CON
Santa Fe
Corinthians
0
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Millonarios
1
1
D
10.04.26
CON
Santa Fe
Penarol
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Deportes Tolima
2
2
D
01.04.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Llaneros
0
1
L
H2H: Junior vs Santa Fe
24.05.26
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
0
0
D
17.05.26
H2H
Santa Fe
Junior
1
1
D
22.02.26
H2H
Santa Fe
Junior
2
1
L
22.01.26
H2H
Santa Fe
Junior
3
0
L
16.01.26
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
1
1
D
29.10.25
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
1
2
L
11.05.25
H2H
Santa Fe
Junior
2
1
L
02.09.24
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
1
1
D
22.02.24
H2H
Santa Fe
Junior
3
0
L
02.09.23
H2H
Santa Fe
Junior
1
0
L
19.03.23
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
1
1
D
23.11.22
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
2
3
L
13.11.22
H2H
Santa Fe
Junior
0
0
D
24.07.22
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
2
0
W
12.05.22
H2H
Santa Fe
Junior
0
1
W
Last matches: Junior
02.08.26
Pri
Junior
Millonarios
0
1
L
03.06.26
Pri
Junior
Atletico Nacional
3
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Junior
Santa Fe
0
0
D
21.05.26
CON
Junior
Sporting Cristal
3
2
W
14.05.26
Pri
Junior
Once Caldas
2
2
D
08.05.26
CON
Junior
Cerro Porteno
0
1
L
03.05.26
Pri
Junior
Deportivo Pasto
4
3
W
19.04.26
Pri
Junior
Llaneros
2
0
W
09.04.26
CON
Junior
Palmeiras
1
1
D
04.04.26
Pri
Junior
Deportivo Cali
1
2
L
24.03.26
Pri
Junior
Bucaramanga
2
0
W
16.03.26
Pri
Junior
Fortaleza FC
2
1
W
11.03.26
Pri
Junior
Atletico Nacional
0
4
L
06.03.26
Pri
Junior
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
19.02.26
Pri
Junior
America de Cali
2
1
W
08.02.26
Pri
Junior
Chico
3
0
W
18.01.26
Pri
Junior
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
13.12.25
Pri
Junior
Deportes Tolima
3
0
W
05.12.25
Pri
Junior
America de Cali
2
1
W
30.11.25
Pri
Junior
Atletico Nacional
2
1
W
H2H at home: Junior
24.05.26
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
0
0
D
16.01.26
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
1
1
D
29.10.25
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
1
2
L
02.09.24
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
1
1
D
19.03.23
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
1
1
D
23.11.22
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
2
3
L
24.07.22
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
2
0
W
Last matches: Santa Fe
26.07.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Águilas Doradas
1
2
L
28.05.26
CON
Santa Fe
Penarol
1
0
W
24.05.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Junior
0
0
D
10.05.26
Pri
Santa Fe
America de Cali
1
1
D
29.04.26
CON
Santa Fe
Platense
1
2
L
23.04.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Deportivo Pasto
2
1
W
16.04.26
CON
Santa Fe
Corinthians
0
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Millonarios
1
1
D
05.04.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Deportes Tolima
2
2
D
28.03.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Bucaramanga
2
1
W
19.03.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
17.02.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Jaguares
1
3
L
14.02.26
Pri
Santa Fe
America de Cali
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Fortaleza FC
1
1
D
31.01.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Chico
1
0
W
26.01.26
Pri
Santa Fe
Once Caldas
1
1
D
03.12.25
Pri
Santa Fe
Fortaleza FC
2
1
W
29.11.25
Pri
Santa Fe
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
19.11.25
Pri
Santa Fe
Bucaramanga
0
1
L
29.10.25
Pri
Santa Fe
Junior
2
1
W
H2H away: Santa Fe
24.05.26
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
0
0
D
16.01.26
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
1
1
D
29.10.25
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
1
2
W
02.09.24
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
1
1
D
19.03.23
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
1
1
D
23.11.22
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
2
3
W
24.07.22
H2H
Junior
Santa Fe
2
0
L

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
L W W L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L L W W
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
L L L L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
D W W W W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D L D W D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
D W L W W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
D W D L L
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D L W L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W L W D W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D W W L D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D D W W W
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D W D D W
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
D W D W L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
W L D D W
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
W D L L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D L L D D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L L W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L D L L
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D D L L W
Post season qualification